Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) are two of the largest payments companies in the world. As a result, they have a great view on consumer spending that’s taking place. With both companies reporting their earnings results for the third quarter of 2025 earlier last week, the bottom line is that consumer spending remains strong in the USA and other parts of the world. Here’s what they are seeing.
*What’s shown in italics between the two horizontal lines below are quotes from Mastercard and Visa’s management teams that I picked up from their earnings conference calls.
From Mastercard
1. Management sees consumer and business spending remaining healthy, supported by steady inflation, a balanced labour market, wage growth, and rising financial markets, although there remains macro uncertainty; management remains positive about Mastercard’s growth outlook
We continue to see healthy consumer and business spending in the quarter with the macroeconomic environment still generally supportive. Inflation levels have remained fairly steady and labor markets remain well balanced. Financial markets were near record highs, further contributing to the wealth effect, which helps stimulate spend. Given this backdrop and our diversified business, we are positioned well for ongoing success…
…The macroeconomic environment is supportive with balanced unemployment rates, wage growth continuing to outpace the rate of inflation for the most part and the wealth effect remaining intact. That said, there continues to be some ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
2. Worldwide GDV (gross dollar volume) was up 9% year-on-year in constant-currency basis; cross-border volume was up 15% globally in constant-currency, driven by both travel and non-travel cross-border spending (cross-border volume growth was 15% in 2025 Q2); switched transactions was up 10% year-on-year; card growth was 6% in 2025 Q3, with Mastercard ending the quarter with 3.6 billion cards in circulation (there were 3.6 billion cards in 2025 Q2, and year-on-year growth was 6% then); on currency-neutral basis, domestic assessments were up 6%, cross-border assessments were up 16% and transaction processing assessments were up 15%
Let’s first look at some of our key volume drivers for the third quarter on a local currency basis. Worldwide gross dollar volume or GDV increased by 9% year-over-year. In the U.S., GDV increased by 7% with credit growth of 7% and debit growth of 7%. Outside of the U.S., volume increased 10% with credit growth of 10% and debit growth of 9%. Overall, cross-border volume increased 15% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued growth in both travel and non-travel related cross-border spending…
…Switched transactions grew 10% year-over-year in Q3…
…Card growth was 6%. Globally, there are 3.6 billion Mastercard and Maestro-branded cards issued…
…Again, all growth rates are described on a currency-neutral basis, unless otherwise noted. Looking quickly at each key metric. Domestic assessments were up 6%, while worldwide GDV grew 9%. The 3 ppt difference is primarily driven by mix. Cross-border assessments increased 16%, while cross-border volumes increased 15%. The 1 ppt difference is driven by pricing in international markets, partially offset by mix. Transaction processing assessments were up 15%, while switch transactions grew 10%. On an unrounded basis, the 4 ppt difference is primarily due to favorable mix as well as some benefit from pricing and revenue from FX volatility.
3. In 2025 Q3, Mastercard’s operating metrics remained strong; in October 2025 so far, Mastercard’s operating metrics continue to be strong with worldwide switched volume growth of 9% (5% in the USA, and 12% outside of the USA), switched transactions growth of 10%, and cross-border volume growth of 15%; US switched volume had a sequential decline in October 2025 compared to 2025 Q3 and September 2025 (5% versus 8% and 7%) because of the expected migration of debit volume by Capital One; management sees consumer and business spending remaining healthy; management is seeing steady growth across both affluent and mass market consumers, although the composition of the spend between discretionary and non-discretionary is different
Starting with Q3, all our switch metrics are generally in line with Q2 and remained strong. As we look to the first 4 weeks of October, our metrics continue to remain strong, generally in line with the third quarter. Of note, U.S. switched volumes saw a sequential decline, primarily due to the expected Capital One debit migration as well as some tougher comps related to weather impacts in 2024. Overall, we continue to see healthy consumer and business spending…
…When we do our analysis based on looks of the various products we have out in the market, which serve the affluent population versus the mass market population as well as when we look at the amount of spend which is taking place across different categories of products that we have. What we’re seeing is continued steady growth, both across affluent and mass market, true in the U.S., true across the globe. So overall, the consumer continues to spend…
…You can expect that consumers at different income levels make different decisions on their spend, discretionary versus non-discretionary. What matters for us is, it has to be carded and that plays in, and that adds up to the resilient trends that Sachin just talked about…
…When I was talking about the first 4 weeks of October on U.S. volumes, right? It’s certainly the Capital One piece as well as the lapping effect due to weather impacts we had in 2024. So, it’s a combination of both of those, which reflects on the 8% number that you’re seeing in Q3 going to 5%. But it’s important to also look at what the growth rate in September was, because 8% is the average across all of Q3. So, it’s kind of this step change, which takes place as cards migrate that you’re going to start to see the volume come down.
From Visa
1. US payments volume growth was good at 8% in 2025 Q3 (FY2025 Q4), with e-commerce growing faster than physical spend; credit and debit volume were both up 8%, reflecting a resilient consumer; growth across consumer spend bands remained relatively consistent with Q3 with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest
U.S. payments volume was up 8%, slightly above Q3 with e-commerce growing faster than face-to-face spend. Credit and debit were both up 8%, reflecting resilience in consumer spending. When we look at quarterly spend category data in the U.S., we saw broad-based strength, including improvements in retail services and goods, travel and fuel. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend were up from Q3. And growth across consumer spend bands remained relatively consistent with Q3 with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest.
2. Visa’s cross-border volume growth remained strong in 2025 Q3 (FY2025 Q4) compared to 11% year-on-year growth in 2025 Q2; there was a strong performance from e-commerce and travel
Q4 total cross-border volume was up 11% year-over-year relatively stable to last quarter, with e-commerce up 13%, and travel improving sequentially to 10%. eCommerce remains strong as it has for the last 8 quarters now and still represented about 40% of our total cross-border volume. Travel spend continued to grow above pre-COVID levels. The slight step-up from Q3 was led by a combination of factors, including increased commercial volumes, helped by our efforts in virtual card and some improvement in CEMEA outbound due to holiday timing.
3. Payments volume on Visa’s network continues to grow in October 2025, with US payments volume up 7%, cross-border volume up over 12%, and e-commerce volume up 14%
Moving to Q1. Through October 21, with volume growth in constant dollars, U.S. payments volume was up 7%, with credit and debit both up 7%. Process transactions grew 9% year-over-year. For constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe, total volume grew 12% year-over-year, with eCommerce up 14% and travel up 11%.
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