Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) are two of the largest payments companies in the world. As a result, they have a great view on consumer spending that’s taking place. With both companies reporting their earnings results for the first quarter of 2026 earlier this week, the bottom line is that consumer spending remains strong in the USA and other parts of the world, although there’s some near-term uncertainty because of the current conflict in the Middle East. Here’s what they are seeing.
*What’s shown in italics between the two horizontal lines below are quotes from Mastercard and Visa’s management teams that I picked up from their earnings conference calls.
From Mastercard
1. Mastercard’s management sees consumer and business spending, and the labour market, remaining healthy, although the economic backdrop is uncertain, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have affected cross-border travel and global energy supply
Looking at the macro picture, the economic foundation remains generally supportive, with healthy underlying consumer and business spending. However, the backdrop remains uncertain, driven by geopolitical tensions, which has put some pressure on cross-border travel. Overall, labor markets continue to be balanced and wages are still outpacing inflation in most major markets…
…Despite elevated geopolitical risks, the macro economy has remained largely supportive, with healthy, underlying consumer spending and the fundamentals of our business remain strong. With that said, we are operating in a period of heightened uncertainty magnified by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Since the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February, we have seen restrictions on travel and a reduction in the world’s energy supply. And as I noted earlier, we are seeing impacts from that in our cross-border travel metrics.
2. Worldwide GDV (gross dollar volume) was up 7% year-on-year in constant-currency basis; cross-border volume was up 13% globally in constant-currency, driven by both travel and non-travel cross-border spending (cross-border volume growth was 14% in 2025 Q4); cross-border volume in 2026 Q1 was affected in March because of impacts on cross-border travel from the conflict in the Middle East; switched transactions was up 9% year-on-year; card growth was 5% in 2026 Q1, with Mastercard ending the quarter with 3.7 billion cards in circulation (there were 3.7 billion cards in 2025 Q4, and year-on-year growth was 6% then); on currency-neutral basis, domestic assessments were up 6%, cross-border assessments were up 18% and transaction processing assessments were up 15%
I’ll speak to the growth rates of our key volume drivers for the first quarter on a local currency basis. Worldwide gross dollar volume, or GDV, increased by 7% year over year. In the US, GDV increased by 4%, with credit growth of 8% and debit growth of 1%. Excluding the impacts from the migration of the Capital One debit portfolio, our US debit GDV growth would have been 7%…
…Outside of the US, volume increased 9% with credit growth of 9% and debit growth of 8%. Overall, cross-border volume increased 13% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued growth in both travel and non-travel related cross-border spending. As one would expect starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict in the Middle East.
…Switched transactions grew 9% year-over-year in Q1. Excluding the impacts from the migration of the Capital One debit portfolio, our switched transaction growth would have been 10%…
…Card growth was 5%. Globally, there are 3.7 billion Mastercard and Maestro branded cards issued…
…All growth rates are described on a currency neutral basis, unless otherwise noted. Looking quickly at each key metric, domestic assessments were up 6% while worldwide GDV grew 7%. The difference is primarily driven by mix, partially offset by pricing. Cross-border assessments increased 18%, while cross-border volumes increased 13%. The five point difference is driven primarily by pricing in international markets. Transaction processing assessments were up 15%, while switch transactions grew 9%. The six ppt difference is primarily due to favorable mix and pricing, slightly offset by lower revenue from FX volatility.
3. In 2026 Q1, Mastercard’s operating metrics had good year-on-year growth and were stable sequentially; in April 2026 so far, Mastercard’s operating metrics continue to be strong with worldwide switched volume growth of 8% (5% in the USA, and 10% outside of the USA), switched transactions growth of 9%, and cross-border volume growth of 9%; cross-border travel volume declined sequentially in April 2026 from 2026 Q1 because of an acceleration in the impact of the Middle East conflict; in all, management continues to see healthy consumer and business spending
Let me comment on the operating metric trends for Q1 and the first 4 weeks of April. As we look across Q1 and April, growth rates of our operating metrics were impacted by timing of holidays, namely Ramadan and Easter. March would have seen the benefits from the timing, while February and April saw a negative impact. Looking at the Q1 operating metrics on a sequential basis, switched metrics were generally in line with Q4 and underlying spend remains stable. Of note, U.S. switched volume was flat sequentially as the strength in consumer and business spend offset the impact from the migration of Capital One’s debit portfolio in the quarter. Excluding Capital One, on a like-for-like basis, U.S. switched volume growth was over 1 ppt higher in Q1 as compared to Q4. Now on to switched transactions; excluding the migration of the Capital One debit growth — sorry, excluding the migration of Capital One debit, growth was generally in line with Q4.
Moving to our cross-border metrics. Our overall cross-border volume remains healthy with growth at 13% in the first quarter. Cross-border card-not-present ex-travel grew at 18% and remained strong. And the sequential decline in cross-border travel was due primarily to the conflict in the Middle East and portfolio shifts.
Now looking specifically at cross-border travel for the first 4 weeks of April, the sequential decline from Q1 is due to an acceleration of the impact of the conflict, the portfolio shifts and the negative impact from the timing I just mentioned. None of these factors relate to any fundamental change, and underlying consumer and business spend remains healthy.
From Visa
1. US payments volume growth was good at 8%, with e-commerce growing faster than physical spend, and it reflected resilience in consumer spending; there was good growth in both US credit and debit volumes; growth across consumer spend bands improved from 2025 Q4 (FY2026 Q1) with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest; both discretionary and non-discretionary spend remained strong; management did not see a deterioration in spend in the lower bands;
U.S. payments volume grew 8% year-over-year, up almost 1.5 points from Q1, reflecting resilience in consumer spending. E-commerce spend outpaced face-to-face spend. Both U.S. credit and debit demonstrated broad-based spend improvement, and we believe both were helped in part by higher tax refunds. Debit grew 7%, up almost 1 point from Q1 and credit grew 10%, up more than 2 points from Q1, with strong travel spend in both consumer and commercial.
Growth across consumer spend band saw incremental improvement from Q1 with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest. Across our volume, both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend remains strong. We do not see signs of the lower spend consumer weakening in our volumes.
2. Visa’s cross-border volume growth remained strong in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2) at 11%, and was the same as in 2025 Q4 (FY2026 Q1)
Q2 total cross-border volume was up 11% year-over-year, consistent with Q1. Cross-border eCommerce volume was up 13%, 1 point above Q1. While crypto continued to be a slight drag, the improvement was primarily driven by U.S. inbound volume. Travel-related cross-border volume was up 10%, generally consistent with Q1, led by continued strength in commercial and improved U.S. inbound volume that generally offset the impact in the Middle East that was most pronounced in March.
3. Payments volume on Visa’s network continues to grow in April 2026, with US payments volume up 9%, cross-border volume up over 9%, e-commerce volume up 14%, and processed transactions up 8%; management is seeing near-term uncertainty in cross-border travel spend in the CEMEA (Central Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region because of the Middle East conflict
Now let’s look at drivers through April 21 with volume growth in constant dollars. U.S. payments volume was up 9%, with credit up 10%, and debit up 8% year-over-year. For constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe, total volume grew 9% year-over-year with eCommerce up 14% and travel up 5%. The step down in travel from March was driven by both the impact from the Middle East conflict and Ramadan timing. When you normalize for Ramadan timing, the total April cross-border volume growth was in line with February levels. Processed transactions grew 8% year-over-year…
…The Middle East conflict has introduced some near-term uncertainty, in particular to cross-border travel spend in the CEMEA region.
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