Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and Visa (NYSE: V) are two of the largest payments companies in the world. As a result, they have a great view on consumer spending that’s taking place. With both companies reporting their earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2025 earlier this week, the bottom line is that consumer spending remains strong in the USA and other parts of the world. Here’s what they are seeing.
*What’s shown in italics between the two horizontal lines below are quotes from Mastercard and Visa’s management teams that I picked up from their earnings conference calls.
From Mastercard
1. Mastercard’s management sees consumer and business spending remaining healthy, supported by a balanced labour market, although there remains geopolitical and economic uncertainty; management remains positive about Mastercard’s growth outlook
As we enter 2026, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty persists. We will continue to monitor and work to navigate just as we have successfully done in the past. But for now, we remain optimistic and confident in our execution and the fundamentals of our business…
…The fundamentals of our business remain strong. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive with balanced job markets across the globe, underpinning healthy consumer and business spending. That said, there continues to be ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. We maintain a disciplined capital planning approach and have levers to pull if needed…
…We remain positive about the growth outlook and our base case for 2026 continues to reflect healthy consumer spending.
2. Worldwide GDV (gross dollar volume) was up 7% year-on-year in constant-currency basis; cross-border volume was up 14% globally in constant-currency, driven by both travel and non-travel cross-border spending (cross-border volume growth was 15% in 2025 Q3); switched transactions was up 10% year-on-year; card growth was 6% in 2025 Q4, with Mastercard ending the quarter with 3.7 billion cards in circulation (there were 3.6 billion cards in 2025 Q3, and year-on-year growth was 6% then); on currency-neutral basis, domestic assessments were up 8%, cross-border assessments were up 17% and transaction processing assessments were up 14%
Let’s first look at some of our key volume drivers for the fourth quarter on a local currency basis. Worldwide gross dollar volume, or GDV, increased by 7% year-over-year. In the U.S., GDV increased by 4% with credit growth of 6% and debit growth of 2%. The growth of our debit portfolio was impacted by the Capital One debit migration, which continued through Q4. Outside of the U.S., volume increased 9% with credit growth of 9% and debit growth of 9%. Overall, cross-border volume increased 14% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued growth in both travel and non-travel related cross-border spending…
…Switched transactions grew 10% year-over-year in Q4…
…Card growth was 6%. Globally, there are 3.7 billion Mastercard and Maestro-branded cards issued…
…All growth rates are described on a currency-neutral basis, unless otherwise noted. Looking quickly at each key metric. Domestic assessments were up 8%, while worldwide GDV grew 7%. The difference is primarily driven by pricing, offset by mix. Cross-border assessments increased 17%, while cross-border volumes increased 14%. The 3 ppt difference is driven primarily by pricing in international markets, partially offset by mix. Transaction processing assessments were up 14%, while switched transactions grew 10%. The 4 ppt difference is primarily due to favorable mix and pricing, partially offset by a decline in revenue from FX volatility. Towards the end of Q4 and month-to-date January, we saw FX volatility well below historical norms.
3. In 2025 Q4, Mastercard’s operating metrics had good year-on-year growth but there were sequential declines; in January 2026 so far, Mastercard’s operating metrics continue to be strong with worldwide switched volume growth of 9% (5% in the USA, and 12% outside of the USA), switched transactions growth of 10%, and cross-border volume growth of 13%; US switched volume was flat sequentially in January 2026 as the migration of debit volume by Capital One was offset by easier comps from weather impacts a year ago; in all, management continues to see healthy consumer and business spending; consumer spending did not change in 2025 despite what surveys may say; US tariffs that were implemented in 2025 has not affected consumer spending in a noticeable way; consumer spending remains healthy across the world
Starting with Q4 and looking at the metrics on a sequential basis. U.S. switched volume growth declined primarily due to the migration of the Capital One debit portfolio. Worldwide less U.S. switched volume saw a slight deceleration, driven primarily by tougher comps, including the lapping of portfolio wins in Europe. Switched transactions were in line with Q3. Cross-border volume remained strong. Of note, we saw a sequential decline in cross-border card-not-present ex travel, primarily driven by tougher comps from the lapping of share wins in Europe and higher growth from crypto purchases a year ago.
As we look to the first 3 weeks of January, our metrics continue to remain strong, generally in line with the fourth quarter. Of note, U.S. switch volume was flat sequentially as the Capital One debit roll-off was mostly offset by easier comps due to weather impacts in the prior year. We saw a decline in cross-border travel volumes, primarily due to weather-related impacts in Europe this year. Cross-border card-not-present ex travel continued to be impacted by higher growth from crypto purchases a year ago. Overall, we continue to see healthy consumer and business spending…
…When you look back over 2025 over the whole year, and we just take soft data like headlines or consumer confidence data that comes out. On one hand, consumers fill in surveys. At the same time, their spend behavior hasn’t actually changed. So that’s a pattern that just continues. We see — just taking 2025, it hasn’t changed quarter-on-quarter. We see a truly savvy and intentional consumer…
…There is question on how the consumer was affected or not by some of the tariff changes that we’ve seen last year. And that doesn’t show up in our data either. So it’s not coming through. Somewhere across the ecosystem between importers and big brands, it’s all been adjusted in a way that it hasn’t really affected consumer spending, at least we cannot tell that…
…If you zoom out and you look across the world, these patterns are different by region here and there, but the aggregate top line is that consumer spending remains healthy, is the same.
From Visa
1. US payments volume growth was good at 7%, with e-commerce growing faster than physical spend, and it reflected resilience in consumer spending; US credit and debit volume were up 7% and 6%, respectively; the slight step down in US payment volume (credit and debt both grew 8% in 2025 Q3) were partly the result of a Visa Direct customer shifting volumes to its own solution, and Capital One migrating its debit volume; growth across consumer spend bands remained relatively consistent with FY2025 Q4 with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest; management did not see a deterioration in spend in the lower bands; both discretionary and non-discretionary spend remained strong; consumer spending in the holiday period of 2025 grew from a year ago in both the US and other key countries globally
U.S. payment volume was up 7%, with e-commerce growing faster than face-to-face spend, reflecting resilience in consumer spending. Credit was up 7% and debit was up 6%. The slight step down in U.S. PV throughout the quarter was driven by debit primarily as a result of a Visa Direct client moving the remainder of its volume to its own solution and a number of other small factors, including the loss of some Interlink volumes to the Capital One debit migration and severe weather that affected certain spend categories.
Growth across consumer spend bands remained relatively consistent with Q4, with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest. We did not see a deterioration in the lower spend band and across our volume, both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend remain strong.
Honing in on the holiday season specifically, which we define as the period from November 1 to December 31. I would note a few items. In the U.S. consumer holiday spending growth was in line with last year, reflecting continued strength in retail, an improvement in fuel and some moderation in other spend categories. Focusing on retail. Holiday spending growth was slightly better than last year, driven by strong growth in e-commerce, which continues to take on a greater share of consumer retail spend. In several key countries around the globe, we saw similar trends with consumer retail holiday spending growth up from last year, led primarily by e-commerce growth.
2. Visa’s cross-border volume growth remained strong in 2025 Q4 (FY2026 Q1) at 11%, and was the same as in 2025 Q3
Q1 total cross-border volume was up 11% year-over-year, consistent with Q4. Cross-border e-commerce volume was up 12%, slightly below Q4, primarily from lower growth in cryptocurrency purchases. Travel-related cross-border volume was up 10%, consistent with Q4. We saw continued strength in commercial volumes, and we started to see improvement in U.S. inbound from Canada.
3. Payments volume on Visa’s network continues to grow in January 2026, with US payments volume up 8%, cross-border volume up over 11%, e-commerce volume up 12%, and processed transactions up 9%
Now let’s look at drivers through January 21, with volume growth in constant dollars. U.S. payments volume was up 8% with credit up 9% and debit up 6% year-over-year. Our constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe, total volume grew 11% year-over-year with e-commerce up 12% and travel up 10%. Processed transactions grew 9% year-over-year.
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