A Conversation With FIRL On Investing

A couple of weeks back, I was fortunate to be invited to have a conversation with John and MJ on their Youtube podcast called The FIRL Podcast.

During the nearly two hour session, we had a chance to chat about a wide range of topics, such as investing in REITs, Singapore’s stock market, growth versus value stocks, and much more.

I hope you enjoy the conversation as much as I had fun doing it.


Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I may have a vested interest in some companies mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time

How We Invest

A series of videos explaining how we invest.

Jeremy and I recorded a series of videos recently with iFAST TV talking about how we invest, all the way from the framework we use to analyse companies to how we value companies.

A new initiative by Singapore-based fintech company iFAST, iFAST TV is “an investment-focused channel committed to creating relevant, informative and engaging video content for all investors.”

We want to thank Ko Yang Zhi from iFAST for being a wonderful host during our videos. We also want to thank the iFAST TV crew for their excellent shooting and production work. Yang Zhi and iFAST TV deserve all the credit for everything that’s great about the videos. Mistakes though, are entirely the responsibility of Jeremy and myself!

The videos – all six of them – can be found below. Enjoy!


Video 1 – What Type Of Markets Should You Invest In?


Video 2 – Should You Invest In Companies With More Debt Than Cash?


Video 3 – How Do You Assess A Company’s Management Team?


Video 4 – Revenue Vs Earnings – Which Is More Important?


Video 5 – Should You Invest In Companies Not Producing Free Cash Flow?


Video 6 – How To Value Companies?


Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. Jeremy and I may have a vested interest in the companies mentioned in the videos. Holdings are subject to change at any time

Is This The End of an Era For High-Growth Stocks?

While the S&P 500 had a stellar year in 2021, there were pockets of the stock market that did terribly. If you underperformd the index, what should you do?

2021 will be remembered as a year of a bull market.

The widely-followed S&P 500 index, which comprises 505 of the largest US companies in the stock market, returned 28.7%, well ahead of its long-term annualised return of around 9%.

But that’s only half the story. While the major index witnessed a big upward, many smaller cap tech stocks did not do so well. In particular, “high-growth tech stocks” collectively had a terrible year.

The ARK Innovation ETF, an investment fund managed by Catherine Wood that invests in companies that deploy “disruptive technology,” fell by 24.1% in 2021. Although most of the high-growth companies in ARK’s portfolio continue to produce excellent revenue growth, valuation-compressions have driven their stock prices lower.

With high-growth stocks starting 2021 at relatively high multiples, decelerating growth from the highs of 2020 understandably caused some investors to ditch high growth stocks for value stocks whose valuation multiples have expanded.

Some of the biggest pandemic winners of 2020, such as Zoom Video Communications (-49%), Peloton (-75%), and Teladoc (-54%) sank the most in 2021.

Long-term secular trends

So is this the end of an era for high-growth tech companies?

Personally, I doubt so. Companies that are serving large and growing industries and are disrupting older technologies are likely going to experience durable revenue growth for many years. It is also not uncommon for high-growth stocks to experience valuation swings. One group of high-growth stocks that has seen frequent valuation contractions and expansions is the software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks. 

My friend Eugene Ng, who is a seasoned investor shared this interesting table on Twitter recently:

What it shows is that SaaS stocks have experienced numerous valuation-contractions in the past 20 years and yet eventually return to higher multiples. Although current SaaS valuation ratios are still higher than at most times in history, these high ratios could persist as long as superior revenue growth can continue.

In the past, investors had chronically underappreciated the durability of revenue growth of SaaS companies. Today investors have wisened up to this and are giving SaaS stocks deservedly higher valuation ratios compared to the past. So it is very possible for their valuation ratios to expand again.

Moreover, even with slowing revenue growth which I mentioned earlier, many high-growth stocks are still expected to grow their revenues in the mid-twenties percentage range for years. We could witness higher stock prices for high-growth SaaS stocks in the future even from strong revenue growth alone.

Don’t fret

If you’re one of the many high-growth tech investors who have underperformed the market in 2021, what should you do?

First off, don’t fret. Even though it’s not pleasant knowing that your investments have underperformed an “unmanaged” basket of stocks (the S&P 500), know that underperforming for a short time period is not uncommon, even for the best investors.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Warren Buffett was a running an investment fund. When he shut his fund in 1969, he recommended his investors to invest with Bill Ruane, a friend of his. Unfortunately, Ruane underperformed the S&P 500 for five years straight from 1970 to 1974. But he eventually had the last laugh. From 1970 to 1984, Ruane’s fund produced an excellent annual return of 17.2% for its investors, far in excess of the S&P 500’s 10.0% annual gain.

The beauty of investing is that it is not a short-term game. What matters is how you fare over your entire investing time frame. Most of us, investors, are playing a multi-year or even multi-decade game. Despite its relatively weak performance in 2021, the ARK Innovation ETF is still well ahead of the S&P 500 since its inception in 2015. 

As investors with a long time horizon, it is important to look at the bigger picture.

2022 and beyond…

With the start of the new year, I’ve read numerous articles about how investors should position their portfolios for 2022. Although the authors of these articles mean well, it is extremely difficult to make single-year predictions. As such, I believe the real question should be how do you position a portfolio for a multi-year time frame.

So instead of thinking about how a portfolio could do in just the next 12 months, I prefer to consider what a portfolio could do over a five-year time horizon at least. By thinking in multi-year time frames, I give time for long-term secular trends to play out. I also don’t have to worry about short-term mispricings in the stock market, knowing that eventually, stock prices trend towards their true value (all its future cash flow discounted to the present).

By looking at the multi-year growth potential of a company, I can focus on what really matters over the long term rather than just near-term estimates. This helps me crystalise my investing strategy to optimise for my entire investment life.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. Of all the companies mentioned, I currently have a vested interest in Zoom and Teladoc. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Investing Basics

A presentation on investing basics

I was invited by Autodesk’s Singapore office to give a presentation on investing on 30 June 2021. I would like to thank the Autodesk team for inviting me and for the event’s superb organisation. During my presentation, I talked about what stocks are; active versus passive investing; what asset allocation is; and useful resources for individuals to learn about investing. You can check out the slide deck for my presentation below!


Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I currently do not have a vested interest in any shares mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

How I Invest

A deep dive into my investing approach in the stock market.

I was recently interviewed by the co-founders of FIRL (Finance in Real Life), John and MJ. I had an absolute blast talking to them. During our 2-hour-long conversation, we discussed:

  • How I developed an interest in investing
  • My investment philosophy
  • What I think about diversification
  • Six stocks that are currently in the portfolio of the investment fund that I run with my co-founder Jeremy Chia, namely, Netflix, Haidilao, MercadoLibre, Meituan Dianping, Twilio, and ASML.
  • The differences between institutional investors and individual investors (hint: institutional investors are not always the “smart” money!)
  • And so much more!

Check out the video of our conversation below. If you enjoyed the video, everything good about it is the credit of the FIRL team (the reverse is true too – everything bad about it is my sole responsibility!)

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I currently have a vested interest in the shares of Netflix, Haidilao, MercadoLibre, Meituan Dianping, Twilio, ASML, and Amazon. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Investing In Stocks Is A Lot Like Lending Your Friend Money

There are similarities between how we invest in stocks, and how we determine if we should lend somebody money.

Note: This article is a collaboration between The Good Investors and The Woke Salaryman. It was written by me and edited by He Ruiming. An earlier version of this article was first published in The Woke Salaryman.

Investing in stocks is sometimes made unnecessarily complex.

But really, if you boil it down, it’s basically making an educated guess on whether you’ll see your money return to your hands (hopefully more than the initial amount). 

So, we decided to come up with an analogy that you might find all-too-relatable –  lending your friend money. 

Okay, but before the nitpickers start, we have a few caveats to make.

There are key differences between investing in companies and lending money that we will disclaim upfront. Namely:

  • Lending and getting your money back (hopefully) involves a short time frame, but investments are often for the long term
  • Lending can be an emotional decision; investing emotionally is often a bad idea
  • You’d expect to get 100% of your money back when you lend people money, but you’d expect more from your investments 

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get straight to it.

These are the things that both investors and prospective lenders might wanna look out for when parting with their money. 

Factor 1: The industry they are in 

First things first. The industry they’re in matters, because that affects how much income they will be getting.

Are they exposed to a growth industry, or one that’s stagnated and going through rapid decline?

For example, you’d prefer to lend money to someone who’s working to develop productivity software as opposed to someone who works at a print newspaper. One has the potential for a lucrative career path. The other’s best days are over. It’s obvious who is more likely to return your money.

Similarly, when investing in stocks, the industry that the company is exposed to is important.

Being in a large and/or growing industry means that it’s easier for a company to grow.  But companies that are in a sunset industry have little room for expansion, and may meet their demise sooner than later.

Factor 2: The stability of their income

The next thing you think about is the stability of income.

Are they working at an established technology company as a software developer, or are they a freelance developer who relies on gigs?

Don’t get us wrong. Freelancing can be highly lucrative, but it may not be as stable as working at an established company – and having a stable income increases the chances that they can repay you.

When applied to the stock market, having stable income (in other words, having recurring revenues) is better than having income that comes from unpredictable sources (such as depending on big sporadic projects for revenue). 

Having recurring revenues means that a company’s management team is able to better budget for growth investments for the future, without worrying that the business may fall into a rut.

Remember – investors love predictability.

Factor 3: Their financial strength

Is your friend laden with a heavy mortgage, car loan, and/or credit card debt?

If so, it’s going to be really difficult for them to repay you, as compared to somebody who has minimal financial liabilities at the moment. After all, if they already owe so many people/organisations money, what is the likelihood you’ll get your money back?

In a similar way, companies can also be either heavily in debt, or be flushed with cash and assets.

I prefer a company with a strong balance sheet – (aka more cash than debt). This simple trait makes a company antifragile, in my opinion.

Antifragility is a term introduced by Nassim Taleb, a former options trader and author of numerous books including Black Swan and Antifragile. Taleb classifies things into three groups:

  • The fragile, which breaks when exposed to stress (like a piece of glass, which shatters when dropped)
  • The robust, which remain unchanged when stressed (like a football, which does not get affected much when kicked or dropped)
  • The antifragile, which strengthens when exposed to stress (like our human body, which becomes stronger when we exercise)

Companies too, can be fragile, robust, or even antifragile. 

The easiest way for a company to be fragile is to load up on debt. If a company is heavily indebted, it can crumble when facing even a small level of economic stress.

On the other hand, a company can be robust or even antifragile if it has a strong balance sheet that has minimal or reasonable levels of debt. During tough times (for whatever reason), having a strong balance sheet gives a company a high chance of surviving. It can even allow the company to play offense, such as by hiring talent and winning customers away from weaker competitors, or having a headstart in developing new products and services. In such a scenario, companies with strong balance sheets have a higher chance of emerging from a crisis – a period of stress – stronger than before.

Factor 4: Their cash flow

Also linked to financial strength is cash flow – which refers to the cash they have left from their income after all expenses are deducted. 

Example: Let’s say your friend has a promising career, a high income, and little debt. However, they’re still living paycheck to paycheck because of an extravagant lifestyle.

This makes lending money to them riskier. In the event they lose their job, they might have to sell some of their stuff to get by. It also won’t be easy for them to change their lifestyle to make sure they have sufficient savings to repay you.

Similarly, when investing in stocks, I’m focused on the free cash flow that a company can generate.

All things equal, a company with higher free cash flow is more valuable than one with lower free cash flow.

Factor 5: Their income growth

Some people continuously upskill throughout life and improve their earning power – whether it’s through new skills, networking or starting a business. Others get stuck in jobs they dislike for years and take no action because of learned helplessness.  They suffer from little job and income progression. 

(To be clear, there’s nothing wrong with a person not wanting to improve their income over time. For instance, there could be cases where a higher income would mean a trade-off of lesser family time.)

But simply for our context, we’d prefer if the person we are lending money to has a history of growing their income.

In stock market investing, I too want to look for companies with a proven track record of growth. 

This is because I believe that businesses that are winning tend to have a certain momentum that allows them to carry on winning. Think about it. If you’re a talented employee working in a company that’s struggling, would you prefer to stay put, or join a competitor who’s flourishing?

What happens is that businesses that are winning stand a higher chance of attracting talented employees, which allows them to carry on winning, which allows them to continue to attract talent, and so on and so forth.

Factor 6: Integrity and history of personal growth

Is your friend a trustworthy and dependable person? Or one of those people who are infamous for owing people money, dodging calls, and going on radio silence? 

Make no mistake: Character and track record are incredibly important, and cannot be ignored.

Yet another important aspect about their character is attitude towards personal growth. We touched on this earlier, but it’s important to bring it up again. If your friend is someone who’s willing to constantly reinvent themselves, they’ll likely be able to enjoy a growing income stream in the years ahead. This makes it even more probable that they are willing and can afford to repay you. 

It’s the same with companies.

I am attracted to a company with a management team that has demonstrated integrity, capability, and innovativeness.  Each of these factors is important: 

  • A management team without integrity can fatten themselves at the expense of shareholders. 
  • A management team without capability is bad for self-explanatory reasons.
  • Without innovation, a company will struggle to grow and can easily be overtaken by competitors.

The logic behind this investment framework

What we need to understand is that the fundamental nature of the stock market is a place to buy and sell pieces of a business.

What drives stock prices over the long run is the stock’s underlying business performance. If the business does well, the stock should do well, eventually. Conversely, if the business does poorly, the stock will fare poorly too, eventually. 

The word eventually is important, because a stock’s price can swing all over the place, in an unpredictable fashion, in the short run. 

But over the long run, the underlying business performance of a stock acts like gravity for the stock’s price, with the direction of pull (upwards, downwards, or sideways) determined by the state of the business.

Read more about my investing methodology here and here.

A final word

These last few paragraphs have nothing to do with investing in stocks, but it has something to do with lending money. We wrote this article with the intention to help make investing more easily understandable. 

That said, all of us need to realise that unlike stock market investing, lending money is often an emotional decision.

And if emotions now come into the picture, then all that logical decision-making-framework needs to be thrown out the window. The important question to answer becomes: “Am I willing to never see this money again if I lend it to my family/friend in need?”

If the answer’s yes, then you need to hope that you’re not encouraging reckless or wanton financial behaviour in your family/friend by lending them money. If the answer’s no, then you may be denying them of a second (or third, fourth, fifth) chance they might desperately need for a breakthrough in life. 

For that reason, the decision to lend money is incredibly difficult to make – it’s much harder than investing in stocks, and we hope you’ll always make the best decision for yourself and the person-in-need who’s knocking on your door.

The Woke Salaryman: But just to be on the safe side, when in doubt, don’t lend. 

Stay Woke, Salaryman


Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

The Unique Ingredient of Haidilao’s Success: Love

All of Haidilao’s success can perhaps be boiled down to something simple: Its founder Zhang Yong’s magnainomous love toward his fellow man.

Note: This article was first published in MOI Global’s website. MOI Global is a community of thoughtful investors that was created by its chairman, John Mihaljevic. I wrote this piece as part of my presentation for the currently on-going Best Ideas 2021 Conference organised by MOI Global.


I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to present at Manual of Ideas’ upcoming Best Ideas 2021 online conference. The company I’ll be discussing is the Hong Kong-listed and China-based Haidilao (HK: 6862). This article you’re reading now is a short introduction to Zhang Yong, Hadilao’s co-founder and current leader.

What I want to do is to present translations of some of my favourite passages from a 2011 book on Zhang Yong and Haidilao. The book is in Mandarin and is titled “海底捞,你学不会.” Iin English, it means “You Can’t Copy Haidilao”.

First, some background

Hotpot is a popular meal among the Chinese. It involves people – often friends and family – sitting around a big pot of flavourful boiling broth to cook by dipping food items into the broth. Haidilao’s business lies in running its namesake chain of hotpot restaurants. At the end of 2019, the company had 716 restaurants in China and another 52 in other countries and territories around the world, including Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and more. 

I run Compounder Fund together with my co-founder Jeremy Chia and it has a position in Haidilao. Compounder Fund invests mainly in companies that we think can compound the value of their businesses at high rates over the long run (hence the name Compounder Fund!). To us, such companies tend to have the following traits: 

  1. Revenues that are small in relation to a large and/or growing market, or revenues that are large in a fast-growing market
  2. Strong balance sheets with minimal or reasonable levels of debt
  3. Management teams with integrity, capability, and the ability to innovate.
  4. Revenue streams that are recurring in nature, either through contracts or customer-behaviour
  5. A proven ability to grow
  6. A high likelihood of generating a strong and growing stream of free cash flow in the future

We spend a lot of time looking at a company’s leadership. This is because of our belief that, in nearly all cases, a company’s leadership is the source of its competitive advantage (if any). A company’s current competitive advantage is the result of management’s past actions, while a company’s future competitive advantage is the result of management’s current actions. We study a company’s compensation structure, related-party transactions, and insider ownership to assess integrity. For capability and innovation, we think about how a company has grown its business over time and what really excites us are business leaders who have a unique way of looking at the world.

Zhang Yong is one such exciting business leader, in our view. “You Can’t Copy Haidilao” is written by Huang Tie Ying, a professor at Beijing University. The book is written from Huang’s point of view and it discusses the highly unusual way that Zhang runs Haidilao. It helped us to understand that while Zhang is not perfect, he has an immense kindness and love toward his fellow man, and an unwavering belief in the good of humankind. He had infused these qualities into Haidilao and it had helped him to develop employees who deliver extraordinary service to customers from the heart. And it is this genuine commitment to exemplary service from Haidilao’s frontline service staff that has propelled the company’s growth.

We invested in Haidilao before we came across Huang’s book. But we already saw strong signs that Zhang was unique. For instance, Haidilao’s 2018 IPO prospectus mentioned:

  • The company has industry-leading compensation for employees among all Chinese cuisine restaurants in China.
  • Restaurant managers are primarily evaluated based on customer satisfaction
  • Nearly all of Haidilao’s restaurant managers started working for the company in non-managerial positions (such as waiters, bussers or janitors) and steadily rose through the ranks
  • Restaurant managers share in the profits of the restaurants they manage, but that’s not at all – they enjoy an even larger share of the profits from restaurants that are managed by their first and second-generation mentees 

We cannot confirm if the Haidilao described in “You Can’t Copy Haidilao” is still the same today. But there are also no strong reasons for us to believe that the current Haidilao has completely warped. The hotpot business is not complicated. You do not require a chef in the shop, so nearly anyone can run a hotpot restaurant. It also means that competition is tough. But Zhang Yong has grown Haidilao’s revenue to RMB 26.6 billion (around US$3.98 billion) in 2019, up 56.5% from 2018. Profit was up 42.3% in the same year to RMB 2.3 billion. The company is today a truly massive and global business – when Huang wrote his book, Haidilao was only in China. 

We live in Singapore, so we’ve dined in Haidilao’s restaurants and those of its competitors on many occasions. As much as its competitors try to copy the form of Haidilao’s service, they can’t seem to get its substance. And we think there’s only a tiny sliver of a chance that Haidilao’s competitors can ever truly imitate the company. This is because Haidilao’s substance comes directly from Zhang Yong’s worldview, and it is something unreplicable, since no two humans are ever identical. 

We hope you’ll enjoy the translations I’ve made from “You Can’t Copy Haidilao”. I wanted to do this because I think there’s plenty that we, as investors, can learn from Zhang Yong. I am fortunate to be able to read Mandarin and understand the book’s content (just please do not ask me to speak or write about business in Mandarin!) so I want to pay it forward by introducing the book to the English-speaking world.

And three more things: (1) I want to stress that the translations are my own self-directed attempt, so all mistakes in them are my sole responsibility; (2) I hope I’ve managed to capture Huang and Zhang’s ideas well; and (3) I look forward to sharing more about Haidilao during the conference. Now onto the translations!

Translation: On providing legendary service

Even someone who has worked in Haidilao for only a day would know an aphorism of Zhang Yong’s: “Customers are won table by table.”

Why do we have to win customers table by table? Because every customer in a hotpot restaurant is there for a different reason. Some are couples on a date, some are there for a family gathering, while some are having business dinners. What every customer needs will be different, so how you move each customer’s heart will not be the same.

Zhang Yong has performed every single task that’s required in a hotpot restaurant… He knows that customers have a wide variety of requests. If you strictly follow standard operating procedures, the best result you can hope for is for your customers to not fault you. But you will never be able to exceed their expectations and delight them. For example, no restaurant’s operating procedure will include a free shoe-shining service.

In the early days after Zhang Yong opened his first hotpot restaurant, there was a familiar face who visited. Zhang Yong realised that the shoes of this old friend were very dirty, and so he arranged for an employee to clean the friend’s shoes. Zhang Yong’s little act moved his friend deeply. Ever since, Haidilao has provided free shoe-cleaning services at its restaurants. 

A lady who stayed above a Haidilao restaurant once ate there and praised its chili sauce. The next day, Zhang Yong brought a bottle of the sauce to her and told her that Haidilao would be happy to send her a bottle any time she wants to have it. 

These are the roots of Haidilao’s extreme service standards.

But these differentiated services can only come from the creativity of every employee’s minds.

Having processes and systems are critical when running chain restaurants… Processes and systems can ensure quality control, but human creativity is suppressed at the same time. This is because processes and systems overlook a human’s most valuable asset – the brain.

Requiring employees to strictly follow standard operating procedures means you’re hiring them only for their hands, and not their minds. You suffer the worst losses in such business deals. This is because humans are the worst “machines” – there’s no way a human can be better than a machine at repetitive actions. The most valuable part of a human is the brain. The brain can create and solve problems that processes and systems can’t!

The goal of providing world-class service is to satisfy customers. Since each customer has different preferences in the process of consuming a hotpot meal, it’s not possible to fully rely on SOPs to achieve 100% satisfaction….

… If some customers do not enjoy a free bowl of soya milk and sour plum soup, can we give them a bowl of chicken egg porridge instead? Even if we normally charge for this porridge, an elderly person with weak teeth who receives it for free may remember this considerate act for life!

A customer craves ice cream – can the restaurant’s waiters leave their station to purchase the ice cream from a neighbouring shop? A customer realises he has overordered – can he return a plate of vegetables? A customer wants to enjoy more variety – can she order half-portions? A customer really likes the dining aprons that the restaurant provides guests – can the customer bring one home for her child? 

When faced with these requests that are not included in SOP manuals, most restaurants will just say “No.” But at Haidilao, the waiters are required to exercise their creativity: “Why not?”

I grabbed a few stories from Haidilao’s internal employee magazine to highlight the company’s incredible service standards…

… Zhang Yao Lan from Haidilao’s third Shanghai restaurant says:

“Business was exceptional on a Saturday night. At 7:30pm, the Yu family visited the 3rd room… They ordered quail eggs and as I helped them cook the eggs in the hotpot, I noticed that Aunty Yu ate all the radish strips that came with the eggs. 

I figured that Aunty Yu loves radish strips. So I called the kitchen to prepare the plate of radish strips and I added my own special concoction of sauces. The Yu family were really surprised when I served the radish and asked if they had ordered the dish. I said that it’s a gift from me because I guessed that Aunty Yu likes eating radish strips and that I hope they like it… 

…They were really happy and praised me as they dug into the dish. They even asked how the dish was made… The following month, the Yu family came three times, and even brought their friends (with surnames of Cai and Yang) to Haidilao. See, how magical a plate of radish strips is – it’s helped me win so many customers!”

Translation: On winning over the hearts of employees (and more on providing legendary service)

Zhang Yong was once a waiter. So he understands that every employee is critical in ensuring the delivery of truly outstanding service. Haidilao’s employees are given the freedom to exercise their creativity and even make small mistakes – Haidiao can really touch the hearts of customers only if the company gets the short end of the stick at times.

But this is easier said than done. Haidilao’s employees have travelled far from home and come from villages that are mired in poverty. They have little education, have not seen much of the world, and are often looked down upon, resulting in an inferiority complex. How can Haidilao drive such employees to develop the initiative to provide excellent service for customers?

Zhang Yong said: “The hotpot business requires very little skill… Anyone can do it after some light training if they are willing. The key though, is the willingness. Waitressing is a physically demanding job with low social status and benefits. Most waiters don’t perform well because they had no other choice other than to take up the role. So to ensure that waiters can excel in their role, the focus should not be on the training methods. Instead, it should be on how to develop the willingness in people to take up waitressing jobs. If your employees are willing to work diligently, you win!”

I asked Zhang Yong: “Can you find me a boss who does not want hard working employees? This is the Himalayas for every boss in the world. But it’s rare for any leader to achieve this.”

Zhang Yong replied: “I think that humans have emotions. If you treat somebody well, he or she will treat you well in return. As long as I can find ways to let my employees think of Haidilao as their home and family, my employees will naturally care for our customers.”…

…How can Haidilao get its employees to think of the company as family?

To Zhang Yong, the answer is simple – treat your employees as family. If your employees are your siblings and they have travelled afar to Beijing to work for you, would you house them in underground basements that most people in Beijing are not willing to live in? Of course not. If you have the resources, you wouldn’t bear to let your family members stay in a place that’s humid and lacks proper ventilation. But for many restaurant owners in Beijing, they house their employees in underground basements while they themselves live above ground. 

Haidilao’s employees get to stay in proper housing, with similar living conditions to the locals in Beijing. There are heaters and air conditioning, and Haidilao ensures that there’s no overcrowding. In addition, each hostel has to be within a 20-minute walking distance to the restaurants that the employees work in.

Why? This is because Beijing’s traffic system is complex. Restaurant staff members work long hours, and as young adults, they require ample sleep. Because Haidilao is picky about where its employees stay, there are only a few suitable locations that also happen to be desirable among the locals in Beijing. This has caused some haughty locals in the city to be unhappy. 

There’s more. Haidilao also has specialised employees who take care of the hostels’ housekeeping needs. There’s free internet, TV, and phones too. Haidilao’s employees state that their hostels are akin to hotels with “stars”!

Getting employees to treat your company as family is not as simple as just repeating some words or educating them. Humans are intelligent – your actions will show what you truly mean. Haidilao’s employees come from poor villages. During Beijing’s cold weather season, Haidilao issues hot-water packets to keep these employees’ blankets warm. For some Haidilao restaurants, there are even employees in the hostels who come in the night to fill up the packets with hot water. Isn’t this something that only mothers will do?

If your siblings travel from your village to work in the city, you’ll naturally be worried that they won’t be familiar with traffic and that they will be looked down upon by city folks. Because of this, Haidilao’s training program also includes soft skills such as map reading, how to use flush toilets, how to navigate the transport system, how to use bank cards etc… 

…If your siblings have travelled somewhere far to work, what would happen to their children’s education? Haidilao set up a boarding school in Jianyang, Sichuan, for the children of the company’s employees.

Haidilao does not just take care of its employees’ children, it also cares for its employees’ parents. Haidilao provides a monthly stipend (a few hundred RMB) to the parents of employees who hold the rank of foreman and upwards. Every parent would want a capable child. Homecoming opportunities for Haidilao’s employees are rare. But Haidilao’s monthly stipend gives the parents of these employees a regular opportunity to feel pride for their children. Chinese people are stingy, the villagers even more so. Despite feeling pride, the villagers would only say: “My child is fortunate to have found a good company where the boss treats them as brothers!” No wonder Haidilao’s employees all affectionately call Zhang Yong, “Big Brother Zhang.”   

Translation: On extreme trust for employees

What does it mean to respect people? Does it mean you have to bow to your boss or cheer for your superiors? This is not respect for people – this is only respect for status and power. Respecting people means trusting them.

If I trust your ethics, I would never guard myself against you. If I trust your ability, I would entrust important tasks to you. This is what it means to respect someone! When a person is trusted, a sense of responsibility would arise within. When an employee is trusted, he can treat the company as family.

At Haidilao, employees are not only treated better than at other restaurant companies, but they are also trusted by the company. 

To treat employees as family is to trust them like you trust your family members. You have to show through actions that you trust someone – words are not enough. The only sign of trust is to confer authority. If your birth sister’s helping you to purchase your daily vegetables and meats at the market, would you send someone to supervise her? 

Of course not. So at Haidilao, any expenditure above RMB 1 million will require Zhang Yong’s approval. Anything lower than RMB 1 million is the responsibility of the vice president, finance director, and regional manager. Sectional managers and the heads of the Purchasing and Engineering departments have the authority to sign off on expenditures of up to RMB 300,000, while restaurant leaders can do so up to RMB 30,000. It’s rare to find private sector enterprises that have the confidence to delegate authority to such an extent.

What Haidilao’s peers find the most unbelievable about Zhang Yong is the trust he has in his frontline service staff. Even Haidilao’s ordinary frontline service staff have the power to give customers partial to full discounts without having to seek approval from their superiors. As long as the service staff think it’s appropriate to discount a dish or provide a free dish (or even an entirely free meal), they can do so. This authority means all of Haidilao’s employees – regardless of rank – are effectively managers, because such authority is usually reserved only for managers at restaurants.

In the spring of 2009, I invited Zhang Yong to give a lecture to MBA students in Beijing University. A student asked: “If all your staff can give full discounts for meals, will there be cases where rogue employees provide free meals to their own family and friends?”

Zhang Yong asked the student instead: “If I give you this authority, will you do it?”

The entire class of more than 200 students fell silent. Indeed, with our hands on our hearts: Will you bear to betray such trust in you?

The truth is, the vast majority of people know deep in their hearts that kindness needs to be repaid and they would not betray the trust that others have placed with them. 

Having been a frontline service staff, Zhang Yong understands this logic: If he wants to utilise the minds of his employees, he needs to give them authority. This is because the satisfaction of customers actually rests entirely in the hands of his frontline service staff. It is after all his frontline service staff who interact with customers from the moment they step into the restaurant till they leave. If a restaurant’s manager has to be consulted before a frontline service staff can solve any unhappiness a customer experiences at the outlet, the process itself will only vex the customer further.

Humans are often worried when they’re waiting for a problem to be resolved. So the only way to solve customer-unhappiness at scale is to give frontline service staff the power to deal with problems. More importantly, it is the frontline service staff who best know the whims and fancies of customers. They are the ones who can touch the hearts of customers table by table.

Translation: On treating employees the right way

Zhang Yong has an unwritten rule within Haidilao. And because he is the unquestioned leader of the company, the people within Haidilao believe his words.

He said: “Anyone who has been a restaurant leader at Haidilao for at least a year will receive a “dowry” of RMB 80,000 if they leave the company for any reason.”

I asked: “Even if they’re being poached by competitors?”

Zhang Yong responded: “Yes”

“Why?” His answer completely took me by surprise.

Zhang Yong explained: “The work in Haidilao is incredibly tough. Anyone who can rise to the rank of restaurant leader and above has already contributed significantly to the company.”

In fact, many of Haidilao’s leaders clock in overtime for extended periods and this takes a significant toll on their physical and mental health. Many of them are riddled with health issues even at a young age. Haidilao’s procurement head, Yang Bin, once set a record in 2004 by working for 365 days straight. 

Zhang Yong said: “Every Haidilao leader deserves credit for building Haidilao to what it is today. So we should give people what they deserve when they leave for any reason. If a sectional manager leaves, we provide a reward of RMB 200,000. If a leader with the title of regional manager or higher leaves, the gift will be a ‘hotpot restaurant’ – that’s around RMB 8 million in value.”

I asked, somewhat in disbelief: “If Yuan Hua Qiang [a leader in Haidilao with significant importance] is poached, you will reward him with RMB 8 million?”

“Yes, if Yuan Hua Qiang wants to leave today, Haidilao will reward him with RMB 8 million,” Zhang Yong said gently and plainly, while lowering his head as though deep in thought.

Even though I know Zhang Yong wants to win over every talented individual he encounters, this policy of his is highly unusual – not many will dare to implement it. It seems like if you’re not trying to be different and do what others won’t, you can’t ever win – but even if you do, it does not guarantee success! Zhang Yong walks the extreme path….

…When Haidilao first entered Beijing, the journey was rough. The company fell for a scam in its first real estate deal and lost RMB 3 million. At that time, it was all the cash that Haidilao had. 

“Did you manage to find the culprit?” I asked Zhang Yong.

“So what if we had found him? There was even a retired judge in the group of scammers. We simply were not aware that we had fallen into a trap.”

I continued to ask: “Did you scold anyone after you heard the news?”

Zhang Yong said: “How would I dare to scold anyone?! The Beijing manager was already so anxious that he could not eat for two days. In fact, I did not dare to call him in those few days. I only decided to contact him after I heard that they wanted to kidnap the culprit. I said, are we worth only RMB 3 million? Let’s start doing the real work.”

I followed up: “Did you really not blame him, or feel any pain?”

Zhang Yong replied: “Of course I felt the pain. The sum we lost was all our cash at that point in time. But I really did not blame him. Because if I was the one in Beijing, I would have fallen into the same trap!”

Dear bosses, after reading this, please ask yourself the following: If you had ran into the same situation, would you think this way?

No wonder Haidilao has only ever had to pay its “dowry” to three people in its 10-plus years of operating history, despite having more than a 100 people who qualified for the reward if they had left.

But as a company grows, there will be all kinds of people in it. Haidilao is no exception. Last year, there was a restaurant leader who quit Haidilao to join a competitor who set up shop just opposite her Haidilao outlet. She also brought along her Haidilao restaurant’s kitchen manager, area manager, and other service staff leaders. When she came back to Haidilao to ask for her “dowry,” Zhang Yong refused.

Translation: On priorities

In his 2006 New Year’s address to employees, Zhang Yong said: “If you’re talking to me and your phone rings because your staff is calling you, then you and I will stop our conversation. Your priority should be handling your staff’s issue. If you’re talking to your staff and a customer needs help, you and your staff should end the conversation and focus on the customer’s needs. This is what our list of priorities should look like when I talk about placing customer satisfaction at the centre of what we do. As I grow older, I’ve come to gradually understand the broader meaning of the term “customer” – it includes our employees.

Translation: On evaluating a restaurant business

Zhang Yong has an extremely strange way of evaluating the performance of every Haidilao restaurant. A restaurant’s profit is not part of the assessment criteria that Haidilao’s HQ uses. To add to the weirdness, Zhang Yong does not have any annual company-wide profit targets for Haidilao.

I asked him: “Why do you not assess profits?”

He responded: “Assessing profits is useless because profit is the result of the work we do. If our work is bad, it’s not possible to produce high profits. But if we do good work, it’s impossible for our profits to be low. Moreover, the company’s profit is the end result of all the work performed by various departments. Each department has a different function, so it’s tough to clearly define their contributions. There’s also an element of chance in the profit a restaurant earns. For example, no matter how hard a restaurant leader and his team works, a poorly-located restaurant can’t hope to outperform a restaurant with average-leadership but a superb location. But a restaurant leader and his team have no say in choosing a restaurant’s location. It’s not fair, nor scientific, to insist on assessing a restaurant’s performance based on its level of profit.”

I followed up: “The level of profit depends, at least to some extent, on costs. Each individual restaurant should at least be able to control its costs, right?”

Zhang Yong said:

“Yes that’s right. But in what areas can those below the rank of restaurant leader have the biggest effect? It’s in improving service standards and winning more customers! Lowering costs is not as important as creating more revenue.

As Haidilao started to introduce more SOPs, we also began to assess results more. Consequently, some sectional leaders started to include profit in their evaluation of individual restaurants. When this happened, incidents like the following happened: Brooms for toilets continued to be used even when there were no longer any whiskers for sweeping; the watermelons that we gave to customers for free were no longer sweet; and customers were given towels with holes to dry themselves after using the washroom. 

Why? Because each restaurant has very little control over its own costs. The important cost items in a restaurant – its location, renovation, dishes, prices, and manpower needs – are set in HQ. Rank and file employees can only focus on the little things if you insist on evaluating profit. We noticed this phenomenon before it was too late and promptly stopped using the level of profit as a criterion for performance-assessment. In actual fact, any employee with even a modicum of business sense does care about costs and profits. Even if you merely conduct a basic accounting of profit, everyone is already paying attention to it. So if you make the level of profit a key criterion for performance assessment, it will only magnify people’s focus on profit…

…I asked Zhang Yong: “You do not even look at a restaurant’s revenue when assessing its performance?”

Zhang Yong said: “Yes, our performance criteria does not include profit. But that’s not all. We also do not include revenue as well as other KPIs that are commonly used by restaurant companies, such as spending per customer. This is because these criteria are results. If a business manager insists on waiting for these results to know if the business is doing well or poorly, wouldn’t the food already be cold by the time? Imagine that there’s a polluted river and instead of trying to fix the source of the pollution, you’re only busily filtering, testing, and removing filth downstream. What’s the point?”…

…Zhang Yong said: “Now we only have three criteria for evaluating the performance of each hotpot restaurant. First is the level of customer satisfaction; second is the level of positiveness in the work attitude of employees, and the third is the nurturing of leaders.

I replied: “These are all qualitative criteria. How do you measure them?”

Zhang Yong answered: “Yes, they are all qualitative, so you can only measure them qualitatively. Teacher Huang, I don’t understand why these scientific management tools insist on scoring qualitative things. Let’s talk about customer satisfaction for instance. Do they expect every customer to fill up a survey form? Think about this. How many customers are willing to fill up your form after their meal? Wouldn’t customers’ unhappiness increase if they’re being made to fill up forms? Besides, how believable can a form be if you’re forcing it onto someone? 

I asked: “How then do you evaluate customer satisfaction?”

He said: “We get the direct superiors of restaurant leaders – sectional managers – to conduct frequent yet random visits to the restaurants. The sectional manager and his assistant will communicate at length with the restaurant leader. In what areas have the level of customer satisfaction increased or decreased? Have frequent diners appeared more regularly this month, or less? Our sectional managers were all once frontline service staff who rose to their current roles. They have intimate knowledge when it comes to customer satisfaction.

It’s the same when it comes to employee’s work attitudes. Teacher Huang, if you’re the one doing the assessment, it won’t work. All you’ll see are people running about, with smiles on their faces. But if it’s me, I will be able to tell you: Look at that young chap there with hair that’s too long. This young girl has applied her makeup too sloppily. Some employees’ shoes are dirty. This service staff is standing there in a daze. These are all signs on the level of positivity that employees bring to work, aren’t they?! It’s the same when a restaurant leader assesses his team leaders and when his team leaders assess their team.

I further probed: “So their rewards depend on these qualitative assessments?”

Zhang Yong replied: “It’s not just their rewards. Their promotions or demotions also depend on the three criteria. Think about this. How can most waiters have a positive work attitude if their restaurant leader is an unfair person? And how can customers be happy if they are served by waiters who are not positive at work? The revenue and profit numbers for such a restaurant will definitely be bad. There’s no need to wait for the numbers to be out to replace the restaurant leader or remind him that he needs to change his ways. And even if the numbers are good, it has nothing to do with the restaurant leader. We’ve had cases where we are unable to promote restaurant leaders who run very profitable restaurants. This is because they are unable to groom talent. The moment these restaurant leaders step away from their restaurants, problems occur. For these restaurant leaders, we may even demote them despite the high profits their restaurants are producing.”

Translation: What it means to truly care for employees

In 2006, Haidilao’s directors decided to establish a union. Unions are supposed to belong to employees, but Zhang Yong gave Haidiao’s union a unique mission. During the birth of the union, he said some important things:

“The 11 restaurants we have welcomed 3 million customers last year. The vast majority of these customers visited our restaurants because of the people working in Haidilao. This is proof of the excellent caliber of many of Haidilao’s employees. Since we have so many outstanding colleagues, shouldn’t we group them together, so that we can rely on them to influence even more people to remain at Haidilao and continue working hard (this is Zhang Yong’s purpose for setting up the union)? Because of this, I need the cream of the crop to join the union. The union should be an excellent organisation within Haidilao (Zhang Yong can really innovate!)…

…Every union member needs to understand this simple logic. We’re not caring for our employees to carry out the company’s orders. We’re doing so because we truly understand that we’re all human. And every human being needs to care and to be cared for. This care stems from a belief, and that is “all men are created equal.”

If our union members understand this point, then we’ll know that the union should not only be caring about the little things, such as taking care of employees when they have a small illness. What’s even more important is for the union to provide a platform for them to change their destiny. And to change their destiny is to win more diners for Haidilao with all their might. To open more restaurants so that there are more opportunities for career growth for the people of Haidilao to change their destiny. This is what it really means to care for employees.


Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I currently have a vested interest in the shares of Haidilao. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Learning Investing, Redefined

A new micro-learning bot that could revolutionise the way you learn about investing.

I’ve a group of entrepreneurial friends who came together earlier this year to launch Joyful Person, a micro-learning bot. According to the team, who quoted research from Stanford and UPenn, users tend to learn better and faster with bot-based learning programmes.

One of the first few topics Joyful Person wants to help users learn, is investing. To this end, the team behind Joyful Person have built a few different investing courses on their platform. Each course typically consists of 5 to 15 sessions, and each session takes less than 10 minutes to complete. 

In the list of the investing courses that are currently on Joyful Person is a course that’s based on the lessons I shared in my article Saying Goodbye: 10 Years, a 19% Annual Return, and 17 Investing Lessons.

Yesterday, I tried out a demo of the investing course and it worked beautifully. Quick but effective quizzes were sprinkled throughout each session of the course to help users better understand the content. You can also learn entirely at your own pace – the content is delivered based on your interaction with the bot. Below are screenshots of my experience with the course.

Screenshot 1:

Screenshot 2:

The only minor gripe I had was that the course could only be accessed through the Telegram messaging app on a mobile device. The team told me that they’re working on launching Joyful Person on other widely-used messaging apps too. Other than that, I was so impressed by the experience that I think Joyful Person’s micro-learning bot could redefine how people learn about investing. 

Check out the course based on my article by hitting the link below! (Link works best on mobile, and it opens to the Telegram app)

I hope you will enjoy it as much as I did, and please spread the love to anyone in your network if you think the micro-learning course can be useful to them. I will also be glad to hear feedback from you on the course. Your comments will be passed along to the Joyful Person team – they value your input! Feel free to reach out to me at thegoodinvestors@gmail.com.

DisclaimerThe Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.

How People Think About Investing

A friend of mine and his colleague recently approached me to give an online presentation. My friend works in a financial advisory organisation and he wanted me to share my thoughts on how people generally think about investing and how could he and his colleagues explain long-term investing in a convincing manner. The presentation took place on 7 September 2020.

I prepared a speech and slide-deck for the session. They are meant to be viewed together. You can download the slide deck here. The speech is found below.


Hello all! Good afternoon, thanks for having me. Before I begin, I would like to thank Sam and Maxxell for inviting me to speak to everyone who’s gathered here. 

Max is my friend, and he wanted me to touch on two things today: The mentality of individual investors and how to explain investing convincingly. So I’m going to be talking about these things today, specifically in relation to the stock market, because this is where I think I have some knowledge in. For this session, I will be presenting for 30 minutes, and then we can have the next 30 minutes for Q&A.

[Slide 2]

I need to share a disclaimer too. Everything I say here today should not be seen as a recommendation of any stock or investment product, nor should they be seen as a solicitation for the purchase of any stock or investment product. What I say should also not be taken as financial or investment advice. 

Introduction

[Slides 3 to 4]

With this, a quick introduction of myself before I dive into the presentation. I was with The Motley Fool Singapore, an online investment advisory portal, for nearly seven years from January 2013 to October 2019. My role was to conduct research on the stock market and individual stocks, and communicate them to readers of Fool Singapore’s website, so I have a lot of experience interacting with men-on-the-street types of investors. I was a co-leader of the investment team at Fool Singapore and recommended stocks for subscribers to the company’s online investment newsletters.

One of my proudest achievements with the company was to help its flagship investment newsletter, Stock Advisor Gold, beat the market soundly. Stock Advisor Gold was launched in May 2016 and we recommended two stocks per month, one from Singapore, and one from international markets, including the US, UK, Malaysia, and Hong Kong. We measure the return of our recommendations by taking an average of the performance of each stock we recommend; at the same time, we also track the performance of a global stock market index. The newsletter nearly doubled the global stock market’s return over a 3.5 year period as you can see.

Today, I run an investing blog called The Good Investors together with my long-time friend, Jeremy Chia. The Good Investors is our personal investing blog, where we share our investing thoughts freely. I will be sharing this presentation deck on the blog, so you can refer to it later. Jeremy and I also run an investment fund named Compounder Fund, which invests in stocks around the world for the long run. Compounder Fund was launched in May this year and started investing in mid-July. Its mission is to “Grow Your Wealth and Enrich Society” and Jeremy and myself see it as more than just a business – it’s a platform for us to do good. 

With the introduction over, let’s dig into the meat of today’s presentation: How individual investors think about stock market investing and how to explain investing in a convincing way. What I want to do is to contrast six investing “beliefs” I commonly come across with actual real world data. And by me doing so, I think you’ll gain a better appreciation for how to better describe stock market investing to your clients.

“Belief” No.1: The economy’s bad (good), so stocks must do poorly (really well)

[Slides 5 to 8]

Throughout my career, one of the most common things I’ve heard from investors is to link the economy with the stock market. If the economy’s surging, stocks should be doing well, and if the economy’s faring poorly, stocks should be doing badly. But real-world data show that this is often not the case. 

For instance, we can look at the Panic of 1907 which was a period of severe economic contraction in the USA. It does not seem to be widely remembered today, but it had a huge impact and was in fact one of the key motivations behind the US government’s decision to set up the Federal Reserve (the USA’s central bank) in 1913. For perspective of how tough the Panic of 1907 was, when 1908 started, business volumes in many industries fell by 72% from a year ago; by the middle of 1908, business volumes had recovered to just 50% of what they were in 1907.

Now let’s look at how the US stock market did from 1907 to 1917. US stocks fell for most of 1907. They bottomed in November 1907 after a 32% decline from January. But they then started climbing rapidly in December 1907 and throughout 1908 – and the US stock market never looked back for the next nine years. Earlier, I described the horrible economic conditions in the country for most of 1908. Yes, there was an improvement as the year progressed, but economic output toward the end of 1908 was still significantly lower than in 1907. So this is one great example of why stocks and the economy are not the same things.   

I have two more examples. First, you can refer to this chart on the disparity between the stock market returns and economic growth for China and Mexico from 1992 to 2013. Despite stunning 15% annual GDP growth in that period for China, Chinese stocks actually fell by 2% per year. Mexico on the other hand, saw its stocks gain 18% annually, despite its economy growing at a pedestrian rate of just 2% per year. Second, in the second quarter of 2020, US GDP fell by over 9% from a year ago. But some of the US stock market’s largest companies actually experienced revenue growth. For instance, Amazon grew its revenue by an amazing 40%, while Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft each posted low-teens revenue growth.

So when we’re looking at the stock market, I think it’s important to focus on stocks and not the economy. They are not the same things. 

“Belief” No.2: There’s so much uncertainty now, let’s invest later

[Slides 9 to 13]

Another common thing I’ve heard individual investors say over the years is that “There’s so much uncertainty now, I prefer to wait for the dust to settle before I invest.” Today, with COVID-19 as a backdrop, this sentiment is likely to be even stronger than before.

But let’s imagine that sometime in the future, there’s one single year in which the price of oil will spike, the US will go to war in the Middle East, and the US economy will experience a recession. How do you think the US stock market will fare over the next five years or the next 30 years after this particular horrendous year? Take a second to think about your answer and remember it. 

The events I mentioned all happened in 1990. The price of oil spiked in August 1990, the same month that the US went into an actual war in the Middle East. In July 1990, the US entered a recession. But from the start of 1990 to 1995, the S&P 500 was up by nearly 80%, including dividends and after inflation. From the start of 1990 to the end of 2019, US stocks were up by nearly 800%. What’s really fascinating is that the world has actually seen multiple crises in every single year from 1990 to today as shown in the table, which is constructed partially with data from finance writer and venture capitalist, Morgan Housel – uncertainty was always around, but that has not stopped US stocks from rising over time. 

“Belief” No.3: What goes up, must come down

[Slides 14 to 15]

“What goes up must come down” is also one of the common things about the stock market that I’ve heard investors say. But the historical evidence shows otherwise. 

This chart from Credit Suisse shows the returns of stocks from developed economies as well as developing economies from 1990 to 2013 – this is more than 110 years. In this timeframe, stocks in developed economies (the blue line) have produced an annual return of 8.3% while stocks in developing economies (the red line) have generated a return of 7.4% per year. There are clearly bumps along the way, but the real long run trend is crystal clear. For perspective, an annual return of 8.3% for 113 years turns $1,000 into nearly $8.2 million. 

So what goes up, does not necessarily have to come down permanently – when it comes to the stock. But there is an important caveat to note here: Diversification is crucial. Single stocks, or stocks from a single country can face catastrophic, near-permanent losses for various reasons. Devastation from war or natural disasters. Corrupt or useless leaders. Incredible overvaluation at the starting point. These are some of factors that can cause single stocks or stocks from a single country to do poorly even after decades. By diversifying, we lower our risk.

“Belief” No.4: It’s risky to invest in stocks for the long run

[Slide 16]

The fourth “belief” I want to highlight is the commonly-held idea that it’s risky to invest in stocks for the long run. What the data shows is the complete opposite: The longer you hold your stocks (assuming you have a diversified portfolio of stocks), the lower your chances are of losing money. 

The chart I’m showing now comes from Morgan Housel. Morgan once studied the S&P 500’s data for the years stretching from 1871 to 2012 and found that if you hold stocks for two months, you have a 60% chance of making a profit. If you hold stocks for a year, you have a 68% chance of earning a positive return. If your holding period becomes 20 years, then there’s a 100% chance of making a gain. 

So instead of it being risky to hold your stocks for the long run, the reverse is true – the longer your holding period, the less risky investing in stocks becomes.

“Belief” No.5: Stocks are so risky because they move up and down so much!

[Slides 17 to 20]

There are also investors who believe that stocks are really risky financial products because they move up and down violently over the short run. But it’s all a matter of perspective. To explain further, I want to play a quick game with all of you. I will introduce two companies – both are real companies – and I want to ask you to think about which of the two you will like to own. 

The first company has been a nightmare for investors. From 1995 to 2015, it has fallen by 50% or more on four separate occasions. It has also declined by over 66% twice. The chart you see, from a Motley Fool article by Morgan Housel, shows when and by how much the company’s share price was below its high from the previous two years.

The second company has been a dream for investors. From 1995 to 2015, its share price surged by 105,000%. A $1,000 investment in the company’s shares in 1995 would have become more than $1 million by 2015. 

You have five seconds to think about which company you want to own. Ready? I’m going to reveal their names now..

Both the first and second company are the same! They are Monster Beverage, a US-listed company that sells energy drinks. What this shows is that volatility in stocks is a feature, not a bug. When stocks go through their ups and downs, it’s not because they are risky – it’s just what they do! Even the best stock in the world will not give you a smooth ride up, but this does not mean it’s risky.

“Belief” No.6: I just need to find a world-class fund manager

[Slides 21 to 22]

The last common belief investors have that I’m going to discuss today is the idea that all they need to succeed in the stock market is to find a really good fund manager. If only it were that easy..

From November 1999 to November 2009, the US-based investment fund, the CGM Focus Fund, gained 18.2% annually. I’ll need all of your help to make a guess as to what return the fund’s investors earned over the same period…

Okay, now for the reveal. The fund’s investors lost 11% annually in the decade ended November 2009. How did this happen? CGM Focus Fund’s investors piled into the fund when it was doing well, but sold at the first whiff of trouble. This caused the fund’s investors to basically buy high and sell low. 

CGM Focus Fund’s experience is not an isolated case because it happened with Peter Lynch, who is one of the best stock market fund managers the world has seen. From 1977 to 1990, Peter Lynch earned an annual return of 29% for Fidelity Magellan Fund, turning every thousand dollars invested with him into $27,000. But the average investor in his fund made only 7% per year – $1,000 invested with an annual return of 7% for 13 years would become just $2,400. The same problem with CGM Focus Fund happened to Lynch too. When he would have a setback money would flow out of his fund through redemptions. When he got back on track, money would flow back in after missing the recovery.

So investing with the best fund manager in the world is not enough – investors need the discipline to stay with the manager too.

Conclusion

[Slides 23 to 25]

To conclude, this is the important takeaway from my presentation that I hope you have: The stock market is a wonderful wealth-creation machine for investors who are able to invest for the long run in a diversified manner, both geographically and across industries.

The ride up is not going to be smooth. This is because humanity’s progress has never been smooth. It took us only 66 years to go from the first demonstration of manned flight by the Wright brothers at Kitty Hawk to putting a man on the moon. But in between was World War II, a brutal battle across the globe from 1939 to 1945 that killed an estimated 66 million. This is how progress looks like.

The stock market, ultimately, is a reflection of human ingenuity. The stock market is a collection of businesses that have been formed by entrepreneurs seeking to solve a problem. And so because human progress has never been smooth, the stock market won’t be a smooth ride up. But what an amazing ride it’s going to be. 

DisclaimerThe Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft.

Webinar: “Active vs Passive Investing: Lessons Learned with Ser Jing”

A recent webinar with Samuel Rhee, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Endowus, to talk about active investing versus passive investing.

Endowus is a roboadvisor based in Singapore. In March 2020, Jeremy and myself had the pleasure of meeting Samuel Rhee and Chiam Sheng Shi. They are Endowus’s Chief Investment Officer and Personal Finance Lead, respectively. 

On 17 June 2020, I participated in a webinar hosted by Endowus, where Sam and I talked about active investing and passive investing. I want to thank Sam and the Endowus team (especially Sheng Shi) for their kind invitation. Sam is one of the wisest investors I’ve met, and I learnt a lot from him in our 1.5 hour conversation.

Active versus passive is one of the hottest topics in the investing world today and Sam and I covered a lot of ground during our session. Check out the video of our chat below!

Some of things we talked about include:

  • My journey in active investing
  • Sam’s journey in the active investing world before Endowus
  • The “Three P’s of Institutional Investing”
  • Advantages that institutional investors have
  • Endowus’s focus on doing three things very well for their investors: Access to great investment products; providing good evidence-based investing advice; and lowering costs for investors
  • The foundational building blocks of Endowus’s service. In particular, Sam dug deep into Endowus’s innovative full trailer-fee-rebates and how that benefits individual investors. Trailer fees are fees that a fund manager pays to an investment advisor or investment products distributor – and these fees come directly from the investors who purchase the funds. I admire Endowus for rebating the trailer fees it receives, because these fees are a huge hidden cost that eats into the returns investors earn; the presence of trailer fees is also a big reason why fund management fees are so high in Singapore.
  • Endowus’s investment philosophy:
    • Maximise returns by minimising cost
    • Enduring belief in power of markets
    • Time in markets vs market timing
    • Asset allocation is everything
    • Strive for the efficient frontier
    • Diversification improves risk-return
    • Optimise based on personal risk tolerance
    • Know your limitations
  • My investment philosophy
  • Traits of a good active investor
  • Etymology for the words “invest” and “投资” (Mandarin word for invest) and how this may be affecting investor-behavior in Western and Eastern societies.
  • Capital-flows into active vs passive funds
  • Evidence showing why active investing often fails
    • My thoughts on why it’s still possible to beat the market
  • The reasons why previously successful active managers end up underperforming
  • My book recommendations for new investors: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, and One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch.
  • The importance of having low costs in the investment products we’re investing in
  • How Endowus provides industry-leading low cost investment solutions for investors
  • Investors’ behavioural mistakes during the COVID-19-driven market panic seen in the first half of this year
  • The important distinction to be made between the terms “active” and “passive” when applied to investing. Passive investing is often understood to be the use of passively-managed index funds as the preferred investing vehicle. But is someone who often jumps in and out of these index funds a truly passive investor? Is a person who picks stocks, but who then holds these stocks patiently for years, active or passive? 
  • How I manage cash in an investment portfolio
  • On hindsight, are there any changes to our investments we wish we had made during the market panic in the first half of 2020
  • Endowus’s desire to constantly improve their offerings for investors whenever they find better investment products.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life.