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Saying Goodbye: 10 Years, a 19% Annual Return, and 17 Investing Lessons

9 years 7 months and 6 days. This is how much time has passed since I started managing my family’s investment portfolio of US stocks on 26 October 2010. 19.5% versus 12.7%. These are the respective annual returns of my family’s portfolio (without dividends) and the S&P 500 (with dividends) in that period.

I will soon have to say goodbye to the portfolio. Jeremy Chia (my blogging partner) and myself have co-founded a global equities investment fund. As a result, the lion’s share of my family’s investment portfolio will soon be liquidated so that the cash can be invested in the fund.

The global equities investment fund will be investing with the same investment philosophy that underpins my family’s portfolio, so the journey continues. But my heart’s still heavy at having to let the family portfolio go. It has been a huge part of my life for the past 9 years 7 months and 6 days, and I’m proud of what I’ve achieved (I hope my parents are too!).

In the nearly-10 years managing the portfolio, I’ve learnt plenty of investing lessons. I want to share them here, to benefit those of you who are reading, and to mark the end of my personal journey and the beginning of a new adventure. I did not specifically pick any number of lessons to share. I’m documenting everything that’s in my head after a long period of reflection.

Do note that my lessons may not be timeless, because things change in the markets. But for now, they are the key lessons I’ve picked up.

Lesson 1: Focus on business fundamentals, not macroeconomic or geopolitical developments – there are always things to worry about

My family’s portfolio has many stocks that have gone up multiple times in value. A sample is given below:

Some of them are among the very first few stocks I bought; some were bought in more recent years. But what’s interesting is that these stocks produced their gains while the world experienced one crisis after another.

You see, there were always things to worry about in the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape since I started investing. Here’s a short and incomplete list (you may realise how inconsequential most of these events are today, even though they seemed to be huge when they occurred):

2010 – European debt crisis; BP oil spill; May 2010 Flash Crash
2011 – Japan earthquake; Middle East uprising
2012 – Potential Greek exit from Eurozone; Hurricane Sandy
2013 – Cyprus bank bailouts; US government shutdown; Thailand uprising
2014 – Oil price collapse
2015 – Crash in Euro dollar against the Swiss Franc; Greece debt crisis
2016 – Brexit; Italy banking crisis
2017 – Bank of England hikes interest rates for first time in 10 years
2018 – US-China trade war
2019 – Australia bushfires; US President impeachment; appearance of COVID-19 in China
2020 (thus far) – COVID-19 becomes global pandemic

The stocks mentioned in the table above produced strong business growth over the years I’ve owned them. This business growth has been a big factor in the returns they have delivered for my family’s portfolio. When I was studying them, my focus was on their business fundamentals – and this focus has served me well.

In a 1998 lecture for MBA students, Warren Buffett was asked about his views on the then “tenuous economic situation and interest rates.“ He responded:

“I don’t think about the macro stuff. What you really want to do in investments is figure out what is important and knowable. If it is unimportant and unknowable, you forget about it. What you talk about is important but, in my view, it is not knowable.

Understanding Coca-Cola is knowable or Wrigley’s or Eastman Kodak. You can understand those businesses that are knowable. Whether it turns out to be important depends where your valuation leads you and the firm’s price and all that. But we have never not bought or bought a business because of any macro feeling of any kind because it doesn’t make any difference.

Let’s say in 1972 when we bought See’s Candy, I think Nixon [referring to former US President, Richard Nixon] put on the price controls a little bit later, but so what! We would have missed a chance to buy something for [US]$25 million that is producing [US]$60 million pre-tax now. We don’t want to pass up the chance to do something intelligent because of some prediction about something we are no good on anyway.”

Lesson 2: Adding to winners work

I’ve never shied away from adding to the winners in my portfolio, and this has worked out well. Here’s a sample, using some of the same stocks shown in the table in Lesson 1.

Adding to winners is hard to achieve, psychologically. As humans, we tend to anchor to the price we first paid for a stock. After a stock has risen significantly, it’s hard to still see it as a bargain. But I’ll argue that it is stocks that have risen significantly over a long period of time that are the good bargains. It’s counterintuitive, but hear me out.

The logic here rests on the idea that stocks do well over time if their underlying businesses do well. So, the stocks in my portfolio that have risen significantly over a number of years are likely – though not always – the ones with businesses that are firing on all cylinders. And stocks with businesses that are firing on all cylinders are exactly the ones I want to invest in.

Lesson 3: The next Amazon, is Amazon

When I first bought shares of Amazon in April 2014 at US$313, its share price was already more than 200 times higher than its IPO share price of US$1.50 in May 1997. That was an amazing annual return of around 37%.

But from the time I first invested in Amazon in April 2014 to today, its share price has increased by an even more impressive annual rate of 40%. Of course, it is unrealistic to expect Amazon to grow by a further 200 times in value from its April 2014 level over a reasonable multi-year time frame. But a stock that has done very well for a long period of time can continue delivering a great return. Winners often keep on winning.

Lesson 4: Focus on business quality and don’t obsess over valuation

It is possible to overpay for a company’s shares. This is why we need to think about the valuation of a business. But I think it is far more important to focus on the quality of a business – such as its growth prospects and the capability of the management team – than on its valuation.

If I use Amazon as an example, its shares carried a high price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 72 when I first invested in the company in April 2014. But Amazon’s free cash flow per share has increased by 1,000% in total (or 48% annually) from US$4.37 back then to US$48.10 now, resulting in the overall gain of 681% in its share price.

Great companies could grow into their high valuations. Amazon’s P/FCF ratio, using my April 2014 purchase price and the company’s current free cash flow per share, is just 6.5 (now that’s a value stock!). But there’s no fixed formula that can tell you what valuation is too high for a stock. It boils down to subjective judgement that is sometimes even as squishy as an intuitive feeling. This is one of the unfortunate realities of investing. Not everything can be quantified.

Lesson 5: The big can become bigger – don’t obsess over a company’s market capitalisation

I’ve yet to mention Mastercard, but I first invested in shares of the credit card company on 3 December 2014 at US$89 apiece. Back then, it already had a huge market capitalisation of around US$100 billion, according to data from Ycharts. Today, Mastercard’s share price is US$301, up more than 200% from my initial investment.

A company’s market capitalisation alone does not tell us much. It is the company’s (1) valuation, (2) size of the business, and (3) addressable market, that can give us clues on whether it could be a good investment opportunity. In December 2014, Mastercard’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and revenue were both reasonable at around 35 and US$9.2 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, the company’s market opportunity still looked significant, since cashless transactions represented just 15% of total transactions in the world back then.

Lesson 6: Don’t ignore “obvious” companies just because they’re well known

Sticking with Mastercard, it was an obvious company that was already well-known when I first invested in its shares. In the first nine months of 2014, Mastercard had more than 2 billion credit cards in circulation and had processed more than 31.4 billion transactions. Everyone could see Mastercard and know that it was a great business. It was growing rapidly and consistently, and its profit and free cash flow margins were off the charts (nearly 40% for both).

The company’s high quality was recognised by the market – its P/E ratio was high in late 2014 as I mentioned earlier. But Mastercard still delivered a fantastic annual return of around 25% from my December 2014 investment.

I recently discovered a poetic quote by philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer: “The task is… not so much to see what no one has yet seen, but to think what nobody has yet thought, about that which everyone sees.” This is so applicable to investing.

Profitable investment opportunities can still be found by thinking differently about the data that everyone else has. It was obvious to the market back in December 2014 that Mastercard was a great business and its shares were valued highly because of this. But by thinking differently – with a longer-term point of view – I saw that Mastercard could grow at high rates for a very long period of time, making its shares a worthy long-term investment. From December 2014 to today, Mastercard’s free cash flow per share has increased by 158% in total, or 19% per year. Not too shabby.

Lesson 7: Be willing to lose sometimes

We need to take risks when investing. When I first invested in Shopify in September 2016, it had a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of around 12, which is really high for a company with a long history of making losses and producing meagre cash flow. But Shopify also had a visionary leader who dared to think and act long-term. Tobi Lütke, Shopify’s CEO and co-founder, penned the following in his letter to investors in the company’s 2015 IPO prospectus (emphases are mine):

“Over the years we’ve also helped foster a large ecosystem that has grown up around Shopify. App developers, design agencies, and theme designers have built businesses of their own by creating value for merchants on the Shopify platform. Instead of stifling this enthusiastic pool of talent and carving out the profits for ourselves, we’ve made a point of supporting our partners and aligning their interests with our own. In order to build long-term value, we decided to forgo short-term revenue opportunities and nurture the people who were putting their trust in Shopify. As a result, today there are thousands of partners that have built businesses around Shopify by creating custom apps, custom themes, or any number of other services for Shopify merchants.

This is a prime example of how we approach value and something that potential investors must understand: we do not chase revenue as the primary driver of our business. Shopify has been about empowering merchants since it was founded, and we have always prioritized long term value over short-term revenue opportunities. We don’t see this changing…

… I want Shopify to be a company that sees the next century. To get us there we not only have to correctly predict future commerce trends and technology, but be the ones that push the entire industry forward. Shopify was initially built in a world where merchants were simply looking for a homepage for their business. By accurately predicting how the commerce world would be changing, and building what our merchants would need next, we taught them to expect so much more from their software.

These underlying aspirations and values drive our mission: make commerce better for everyone. I hope you’ll join us.”

Shopify was a risky proposition. But it paid off handsomely. In investing, I think we have to be willing to take risks and accept that we can lose at times. But failing at risk-taking from time to time does not mean our portfolios have to be ruined. We can take intelligent risks by sizing our positions appropriately. Tom Engle is part of The Motley Fool’s investing team in the US. He’s one of the best investors the world has never heard of. When it comes to investing in risky stocks that have the potential for huge returns, Tom has a phrase I love: “If it works out, a little is all you need; if it doesn’t, a little is all you want.”

I also want to share a story I once heard from The Motley Fool’s co-founder Tom Gardner. Once, a top-tier venture capital firm in the US wanted to improve the hit-rate of the investments it was making. So the VC firm’s leaders came up with a process for the analysts that could reduce investing errors. The firm succeeded in improving its hit-rate (the percentage of investments that make money). But interestingly, its overall rate of return became lower. That’s because the VC firm, in its quest to lower mistakes, also passed on investing in highly risky potential moonshots that could generate tremendous returns.

The success of one Shopify can make up for the mistakes of many other risky bets that flame out. To hit a home run, we must be willing to miss at times.

Lesson 8: The money is made on the holding, not the buying and selling

My family’s investment portfolio has over 50 stocks. It’s a collection that was built steadily over time, starting with the purchase of just six stocks on 26 October 2010. In the 9 years, 7 months and 6 days since, I’ve only ever sold two stocks voluntarily: (1) Atwood Oceanics, an owner of oil rigs; and (2) National Oilwell Varco, a supplier of parts and equipment that keep oil rigs running. Both stocks were bought on 26 October 2010.

David Gardner is also one of the co-founders of The Motley Fool (Tom Gardner is his brother). There’s something profound David once said about portfolio management that resonates with me:

“Make your portfolio reflect your best vision for our future.”

The sales of Atwood Oceanics and National Oilwell Varco happened because of David’s words. Part of the vision I have for the future is a world where our energy-needs are met entirely by renewable sources that do not harm the precious environment we live in. For this reason, I made the rare decision to voluntarily part ways with Atwood Oceanics and National Oilwell Varco in September 2016 and June 2017, respectively.

My aversion to selling is by design – because I believe it strengthens my discipline in holding onto the winners in my family’s portfolio. Many investors tend to cut their winners and hold onto their losers. Even in my earliest days as an investor, I recognised the importance of holding onto the winners in driving my family portfolio’s return. Being very slow to sell stocks has helped me hone the discipline of holding onto the winners. And this discipline has been a very important contributor to the long run performance of my family’s portfolio.

The great Charlie Munger has a saying that one of the keys to investing success is “sitting on your ass.” I agree. Patience is a virtue. And talking about patience…

Lesson 9: Be patient – some great things take time

Some of my big winners needed only a short while before they took off. But there are some that needed significantly more time. Activision Blizzard is one such example. As I mentioned earlier, I invested in its shares in October 2010. Then, Activision Blizzard’s share price went nowhere for more than two years before it started rocketing higher.

Peter Lynch once said: “In my investing career, the best gains usually have come in the third or fourth year, not in the third or fourth week or the third or fourth month.” The stock market does not move according to our own clock. So patience is often needed.

Lesson 10: Management is the ultimate source of a company’s economic moat

In my early days as an investor, I looked for quantifiable economic moats. These are traits in a company such as (1) having a network effect, (2) being a low-cost producer, (3) delivering a product or service that carries a high switching cost for customers, (4) possessing intangible assets such as intellectual property, and (5) having efficient scale in production.

But the more I thought about it, the more I realised that a company’s management team is the true source of its economic moat, or lack thereof.

Today, Netflix has the largest global streaming audience with a pool of 183 million subscribers around the world. Having this huge base of subscribers means that Netflix has an efficient scale in producing content, because the costs can be spread over many subscribers. Its streaming competitors do not have this luxury. But this scale did not appear from thin air. It arose because of Netflix’s CEO and co-founder, Reed Hastings, and his leadership team.

The company was an early pioneer in the streaming business when it launched its streaming service in 2007. In fact, Netflix probably wanted to introduce streaming even from its earliest days. Hastings said the following in a 2007 interview with Fortune magazine:

“We named the company Netflix for a reason; we didn’t name it DVDs-by-mail. The opportunity for Netflix online arrives when we can deliver content to the TV without any intermediary device.”

When Netflix first started streaming, the content came from third-party producers. In 2013, the company launched its first slate of original programming. Since then, Netflix has ramped up its original content budget significantly. The spending has been done smartly, as Netflix has found plenty of success with its original programming. For instance, in 2013, the company became the first streaming provider to be nominated for a primetime Emmy. And in 2018 and 2019, the company snagged 23 and 27 Emmy wins, respectively.

A company’s current moat is the result of management’s past actions; a company’s future moat is the result of management’s current actions. Management is what creates the economic moat.

Lesson 11: Volatility in stocks is a feature, not a bug

Looking at the table in Lesson 1, you may think that my investment in Netflix was smooth-sailing. It’s actually the opposite.

I first invested in Netflix shares on 15 September 2011 at US$26 after the stock price had fallen by nearly 40% from US$41 in July 2011. But the stock price kept declining afterward, and I bought more shares at US$16 on 20 March 2012. More pain was to come. In August 2012, Netflix’s share price bottomed at less than US$8, resulting in declines of more than 70% from my first purchase, and 50% from my second.

My Netflix investment was a trial by fire for a then-young investor – I had started investing barely a year ago before I bought my first Netflix shares. But I did not panic and I was not emotionally affected. I already knew that stocks – even the best performing ones – are volatile over the short run. But my experience with Netflix drove the point even deeper into my brain.

Lesson 12: Be humble – there’s so much we don’t know

My investment philosophy is built on the premise that a stock will do well over time if its business does well too. But how does this happen?

In the 1950s, lawmakers in the US commissioned an investigation to determine if the stock market back then was too richly priced. The Dow (a major US stock market benchmark) had exceeded its peak seen in 1929 before the Great Depression tore up the US market and economy. Ben Graham, the legendary father of value investing, was asked to participate as an expert on the stock market. Here’s an exchange during the investigation that’s relevant to my discussion:

“Question to Graham: When you find a special situation and you decide, just for illustration, that you can buy for 10 and it is worth 30, and you take a position, and then you cannot realize it until a lot of other people decide it is worth 30, how is that process brought about – by advertising, or what happens?

Graham’s response: That is one of the mysteries of our business, and it is a mystery to me as well as to everybody else. We know from experience that eventually the market catches up with value. It realizes it in one way or another.”

More than 60 years ago, one of the most esteemed figures in the investment business had no idea how stock prices seemed to eventually reflect their underlying economic values. Today, I’m still unable to find any answer. If you’ve seen any clues, please let me know! This goes to show that there’s so much I don’t know about the stock market. It’s also a fantastic reminder for me to always remain humble and be constantly learning. Ego is the enemy.

Lesson 13: Knowledge compounds, and read outside of finance

Warren Buffett once told a bunch of students to “read 500 pages… every day.” He added, “That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”

I definitely have not done it. I read every day, but I’m nowhere close to the 500 pages that Buffett mentioned. Nonetheless, I have experienced first hand how knowledge compounds. Over time, I’ve been able to connect the dots faster when I analyse a company. And for companies that I’ve owned shares of for years, I don’t need to spend much time to keep up with their developments because of the knowledge I’ve acquired over the years.

Reading outside of finance has also been really useful for me. I have a firm belief that investing is only 5% finance and 95% everything else. Reading about psychology, society, history, science etc. can make us even better investors than someone who’s buried neck-deep in only finance books. Having a broad knowledge base helps us think about issues from multiple angles. This brings me to Arthur Schopenhauer’s quote I mentioned earlier in Lesson 6: “The task is… not so much to see what no one has yet seen, but to think what nobody has yet thought, about that which everyone sees.”

Lesson 14: The squishy things matter

Investing is part art and part science. But is it more art than science? I think so. The squishy, unquantifiable things matter. That’s because investing is about businesses, and building businesses involves squishy things.

Jeff Bezos said it best in his 2005 Amazon shareholders’ letter (emphases are mine):

“As our shareholders know, we have made a decision to continuously and significantly lower prices for customers year after year as our efficiency and scale make it possible. This is an example of a very important decision that cannot be made in a math-based way.

In fact, when we lower prices, we go against the math that we can do, which always says that the smart move is to raise prices. We have significant data related to price elasticity. With fair accuracy, we can predict that a price reduction of a certain percentage will result in an increase in units sold of a certain percentage. With rare exceptions, the volume increase in the short term is never enough to pay for the price decrease.

However, our quantitative understanding of elasticity is short-term. We can estimate what a price reduction will do this week and this quarter. But we cannot numerically estimate the effect that consistently lowering prices will have on our business over five years or ten years or more.

Our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that leads over the long term to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow, and thereby to a much more valuable Amazon.com. We’ve made similar judgments around Free Super Saver Shipping and Amazon Prime, both of which are expensive in the short term and—we believe—important and valuable in the long term.”

On a related note, I was also attracted to Shopify when I came across Tobi Lütke’s letter to investors that I referenced in Lesson 7. I saw in Lütke the same ability to stomach short-term pain, and the drive toward producing long-term value, that I noticed in Bezos. This is also a great example of how knowledge compounds.

Lesson 15: I can never do it alone

Aaron Bush is one of the best investors I know of at The Motley Fool, and he recently created one of the best investing-related tweet-storms I have seen. In one of his tweets, he said: “Collaboration can go too far. Surrounding yourself with a great team or community is critical, but the moment decision-making authority veers democratic your returns will begin to mean-revert.”

I agree with everything Aaron said. Investment decision-making should never involve large teams. But at the same time, having a community or team around us is incredibly important for our development; their presence enables us to view a problem from many angles, and it helps with information gathering and curation.

I joined one of The Motley Fool’s investment newsletter services in 2010 as a customer. The service had wonderful online forums and this dramatically accelerated my learning curve. In 2013, I had the fortune to join an informal investment club in Singapore named Kairos Research. It was founded by Stanley Lim, Cheong Mun Hong, and Willie Keng. They are also the founders of the excellent Asia-focused investment education website, Value Invest Asia. I’ve been a part of Kairos since and have benefited greatly. I’ve made life-long friends and met countless thoughtful, kind, humble, and whip-smart people who have a deep passion for investing and knowledge. The Motley Fool’s online forums and the people in Kairos have helped me become a better human being and investor over the years.

I’ve also noticed – in these group interactions – that the more I’m willing to give, the more I receive. Giving unconditionally and sincerely without expecting anything in return, paradoxically, results in us having more. Giving is a superpower.

Lesson 16: Be honest with myself about what I don’t know

When we taste success in the markets, it’s easy for ego to enter the picture. We may look into the mirror and proclaim: “I’m a special investor! I’ve been great at picking growth stocks – this knowledge must definitely translate to trading options, shorting commodities, and underwriting exotic derivatives. They, just like growth stocks, are all a part of finance, isn’t it?”

This is where trouble comes. The entrance of ego is the seed of future failure. In the biography of Warren Buffett, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, author Alice Schroeder shared this passage about Charlie Munger:

“[Munger] dread falling prey to what a Harvard Law School classmate of his had called “the Shoe Button Complex.”

“His father commuted daily with the same group of men,” Munger said. “One of them had managed to corner the market in shoe buttons – a really small market, but he had it all. He pontificated on every subject, all subjects imaginable. Cornering the market on shoe buttons made him an expert on everything. Warren and I have always sensed it would be a big mistake to behave that way.”

The Shoe Button Complex can be applied in a narrower sense to investing too. Just because I know something about the market does not mean I know everything. For example, a few years after I invested in Atwood Oceanics and National Oilwell Varco, I realised I was in over my head. I have no ability to predict commodity prices, but the business-health of the two companies depends on the price of oil. Since I came to the realisation, I have stayed away from additional commodity-related companies. In another instance, I know I can’t predict the movement of interest rates, so I’ve never made any investment decision that depended on interest rates as the main driver.

Lesson 17: Be rationally optimistic

In Lesson 1, I showed that the world had lurched from one crisis to another over the past decade. And of course, we’re currently battling COVID-19 now. But I’m still optimistic about tomorrow. This is because one key thing I’ve learnt about humanity is that our progress has never happened smoothly. It took us only 66 years to go from the first demonstration of manned flight by the Wright brothers at Kitty Hawk to putting a man on the moon. But in between was World War II, a brutal battle across the globe from 1939 to 1945 that killed an estimated 66 million, according to National Geographic.

This is how progress is made, through the broken pieces of the mess that Mother Nature and our own mistakes create. Morgan Housel has the best description of this form of rational optimism that I’ve come across:

“A real optimist wakes up every morning knowing lots of stuff is broken, and more stuff is about to break.

Big stuff. Important stuff. Stuff that will make his life miserable. He’s 100% sure of it.

He starts his day knowing a chain of disappointments awaits him at work. Doomed projects. Products that will lose money. Coworkers quitting. He knows that he lives in an economy due for a recession, unemployment surely to rise. He invests his money in a stock market that will crash. Maybe soon. Maybe by a lot. This is his base case.

He reads the news with angst. It’s a fragile world. Every generation has been hit with a defining shock. Wars, recessions, political crises. He knows his generation is no different.

This is a real optimist. He’s an optimist because he knows all this stuff does not preclude eventual growth and improvement. The bad stuff is a necessary and normal path that things getting better over time rides on. Progress happens when people learn something new. And they learn the most, as a group, when stuff breaks. It’s essential.

So he expects the world around him to break all the time. But he knows – as a matter of faith – that if he can survive the day-to-day fractures, he’ll capture the up-and-to-the-right arc that learning and hard work produces over time.”

To me, investing in stocks is, at its core, the same as having faith in the long-term potential of humanity. There are 7.8 billion individuals in the world today, and the vast majority of us will wake up every morning wanting to improve the world and our own lot in life – this is ultimately what fuels the global economy and financial markets. Miscreants and Mother Nature will wreak havoc from time to time. But I have faith in the collective positivity of humanity. When there’s a mess, we can clean it up. This has been the story of our long history – and the key driver of the return my family’s portfolio has enjoyed immensely over the past 9 years, 7 months, and 6 days.

My dear portfolio, goodbye.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I, the author, will be making sell-trades on the stocks mentioned in this article over the coming weeks.

Still More Of The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1)

A collection of quotes on artificial intelligence, or AI, from the management teams of US-listed technology companies in the 2026 Q1 earnings season.

Earlier this month, I published Even More Of The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1). In it, I shared commentary in earnings conference calls for the first quarter of 2026, from the leaders of technology companies that I follow or have a vested interest in, on the topic of AI and how the technology could impact their industry and the business world writ large.

A few more technology companies I’m watching hosted earnings conference calls for 2025’s fourth quarter after I prepared the article. The leaders of these companies also had insights on AI that I think would be useful to share. This is an ongoing series. For the older commentary:

2023 Q1 – here and here
2023 Q2 – here and here
2023 Q3 – here and here
2023 Q4 – here and here
2024 Q1 – here and here
2024 Q2 – here and here
2024 Q3 – here and here
2024 Q4 – here, here, and here
2025 Q1 – here and here
2025 Q2 – here and here
2025 Q3 – here, here, and here
2025 Q4 – here, here, here, and here

With that, here are the latest commentary, in no particular order:

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE)

Adobe’s management sees AI changing customer behaviour at unprecedented speed and this means Adobe needs to change its strategy; management now thinks the immediate opportunity for Adobe is to accelerate new user acquisition and lifetime value through freemium offerings; Acrobat and Express MAU (monthly active users) has increased from 700 million a year ago to 850 million in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); Business Professional and Consumer traffic on adobe.com is up 35% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2) and management wants to serve this traffic without immediate paywalls; management has increased creative freemium MAU from 50 million a year ago to 90 million in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); management wants to expand the Firefly freemium experience to acquire users; the shift to freemium will have a negative short-term impact on Adobe’s ARR but will build the foundation for long-term growth; Firefly freemium users who convert to paid users display early signs of significant credit consumption; Adobe’s products feature highly in intent-based search, so management thinks it’s better for the company’s long-term growth to allow users to experience Adobe for free first; management has plenty of prior experience converting freemium users to paid users

Relative even to the beginning of fiscal 2026, AI is accelerating customer behavior at an unprecedented speed, and we need to evolve our strategy and execution to address these changing expectations. Much like our developers have embraced and expanded the AI coding market, there’s a transformation underway for how consumers are discovering, experiencing, onboarding and purchasing products across all categories, including creativity, productivity, gaming and entertainment. As it relates to creativity and productivity, there is an unprecedented demand across additional surfaces for the combination of content consumption and content creation. Conversational interfaces and agents now orchestrate across tools to achieve outcomes faster. The proliferation of media generation models is reshaping and democratizing content workflows from ideation through delivery. AI-first applications that will serve broader audiences need to provide free, intuitive onboarding that drive usage and monetization through paywalls. Big picture, the immediate opportunity for Adobe is to accelerate new user acquisition and lifetime value through a freemium offering.

As it relates to Business Professionals and Consumers, we have dramatically increased Acrobat and Express MAU from greater than 700 million to greater than 850 million year-over-year. The opportunity is to serve billions of Business Professionals and Consumers through a comprehensive freemium funnel, building on the success of the Adobe Reader model…

…Business Professional and Consumer traffic on adobe.com seeking Adobe capabilities is growing 35% year-over-year. We believe this traffic is better served through a customized, friction-free onboarding experience without immediate pay walls and will result in greater customer acquisition and deeper engagement over time…

…For next-generation creators, the opportunity is to deliver an AI production studio across web and mobile that seamlessly integrates with the power and precision capabilities of Creative Cloud. We have increased our creative freemium MAU from 50 million to 90 million year-over-year. The opportunity is to attract hundreds of millions of additional creators through a freemium funnel based on the early success of Firefly…

…The new personalized journeys for creators drove approximately 50% increase in Firefly ARR quarter-over-quarter through Firefly apps and credit packs. Based on this early success, we are confident that we should expand the Firefly freemium experience to acquire and delight the next generation of creatives…

…While we continue to attract strong traffic to adobe.com, which grew over 40% year-over-year, our traditional direct-to-pay journeys may not always fulfill visitor intent as a growing number of new users are first looking to quickly complete their intended task as they begin their relationship with Adobe. Given products like Adobe Firefly, Express and Acrobat AI Assistant have friction-free onboarding and significant adoption, we can now rebalance our journeys to better serve this new generation of users rather than send them predominantly to direct-to-pay journeys. This shift will come at the cost of short-term ARR, but will accelerate user acquisition in MAU, while building the foundation for long-term growth by removing friction from user onboarding, enabling deeper user engagement and driving stronger lifetime value…

…Firefly freemium users who convert to our paid plans are highly engaged with early indications of significant credit consumption…

…What we see is a shift in — or an emergence in terms of LLM usage, and that is driving a lot more intent-based search. So what is an intent-based search? Someone might type into a search engine, summarize this PDF, right? And what we do is we are using SEO and SEM and some of Anil’s Semrush capabilities now to make sure that we’re ranking high when someone types in something like summarize PDF. When the user clicks on our link, we take them instead of taking them to adobe.com and talking to them about Acrobat, we’re now taking them directly into Acrobat web with a single call to action, which is upload your PDF and then we summarize it for them. And when we summarize it for them, we then introduce them to this idea that they can use AI Assistant to even to have — and ask some questions. And we use this process to let them build habit before we start giving them paywalls. So that’s an evolution. If we just took that traffic direct to a paid flow to buy Acrobat and download Acrobat, it wouldn’t produce as much opportunity long term for Adobe. Similarly, in Firefly, we see things like a growth in terms like generating pixel art for social media posts. Again, we have ranked really high in SEO SEM, then we take them directly into Firefly so they can upload an image of themselves, create this pixelated version, maybe introduce them to this idea that you can convert that to video, but it’s a very different flow. And that’s where the world is going…

…We found in that process, things like Edit PDF or Redact PDF inquiries are a great opportunity to take a user that’s built up a habit, using these products and convert them to a long-term paid customer. a lot of that same learning that infrastructure that we have in place for Acrobat that we’ve developed over the years, that same infrastructure applies to everything we’re doing, as you said, with Express, with Firefly, with Acrobat AI Assistant. And the foundation of how we’re taking that 90 million of creative freemium MAU and converting that is identical.

Adobe’s management is seeing massive growth in content creation for marketing use cases; management is seeing an enormous opportunity in marketing use cases; management is seeing enterprises increasingly bringing marketing capabilities in-house because of AI, and they are looking to Adobe for headless and agentic capabilities with pricing models that address outcomes as well as AI usage; Adobe’s AI-first ARR (annual recurring revenue) for Customer Experience Orchestration grew 4x year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); the acquisition of Semrush has helped to improve Adobe’s Customer Experience Orchestration offering by allowing Adobe to offer a brand visibility product; Adobe’s GenStudio ARR grew 25% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); Semrush added $480 million of ARR to Adobe; management thinks the upcoming brand-visibility product will become a must-have for chief marketing officers (CMOs)

Content creation designed specifically for marketing use cases is exploding. New AI coworkers and agents offer organizations the ability to deliver automation and outcomes powered by context, data, MCPs and skills. These address the dual needs of enterprises to expand consumer centricity and cost savings in the era of AI. Business models are expanding to include consumption and outcome-based pricing along with subscriptions. The total marketing opportunity across people, software, agency and channel spend is enormous.

AI is changing enterprise behaviors as they’re increasingly bringing more marketing capabilities in-house through their adoption of software platforms and the creation of custom models that uniquely capture their brand intelligence. IT organizations are looking to Adobe to accelerate their provisioning, deployment and customization to serve their consumers through the availability of headless and agentic capabilities with pricing models that address outcomes as well as AI usage. Customer Experience Orchestration, AI-first ARR grew 4x year-over-year, reflecting how Adobe is the leader in both the traditional marketing category and the emerging Customer Experience Orchestration category. The introduction of Adobe CX Enterprise and CX Enterprise Coworker at Adobe Summit expands the vision and delivery of our category-defining CXO solutions.

The successful acquisition of Semrush unifies our search engine optimization, generative engine optimization and AEM solutions to further extend our CXO offering. We will deliver this integrated offering that addresses brand visibility at the Cannes Lions Festival of Creativity later this month. This combination of creativity and marketing uniquely differentiates Adobe. No other company brings together what creators and marketers can do across our applications and delivery platforms.

Adobe GenStudio ARR grew over 25% year-over-year, reflecting enterprise demand for an end-to-end solution that spans workflow and planning, creation and production, asset management, activation and delivery and reporting and insights…

…Semrush added $480 million ARR to our book of business and expands our ability to serve marketers of every scale. We are rapidly integrating Semrush into Adobe, uniting Semrush’s discoverability intelligence with Adobe’s agentic web apps. We look forward to unveiling a comprehensive brand visibility solution, combining Semrush with Adobe at the Cannes Lions Festival of Creativity later this month…

…Every brand across the world wants to have the right placement and regardless of which LLM consumers are using. They want to have the right message, and they want to have their messages show up on LLMs, on social media and all the other new platforms that consumers are going to. And we believe that the best way to do that is to take their content that they have already within their content management system like Adobe Experience Manager, and make sure it gets out there, whether it’s the bots and the agents that the LLMs have or third-party sites, which have credibility with these LLMs, making sure that all the brand visibility shows up in the right places. That requires the integration of what Semrush brings, which is the outside in knowledge of how — what is actually being prompted for what’s being searched for and that the database that they have of all of the prompts and search queries and so on and combine it with the inside-out intelligence that we have with all the content, marrying those two provides us the opportunity to bring the most comprehensive brand visibility solution in the market, and that’s what we’re introducing it Cannes later this month. So we are super excited about that, and we believe that this is going to be a must-have for every CMO.

Adobe’s AI-first ARR (annual recurring revenue) tripled year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2), after also tripling in 2025 Q4 (FY2026 Q1); Adobe’s AI-first ARR is now $500 million

Adobe’s AI innovation has driven an impressive 3x year-over-year increase in AI first ARR to greater than $500 million.

Under the Business Professionals and Consumers group, Adobe’s management recently introduced the Adobe Productivity Agent, which shifts Acrobat from a static document tool to an interactive experience; users can now share branded PDF Spaces with customisable AI assistants tailored to specific audiences; Acrobat AI Assistant paid MAU was up 150% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2)

This quarter, we introduced the Adobe Productivity Agent, shifting Acrobat from a static document tool to an interactive experience. The Productivity Agent is an AI experience built into Acrobat that draws on Adobe Acrobat’s document intelligence and Adobe Express’ AI-first creation capabilities to help business professionals understand, create and share information. It can turn documents into rich outputs like presentations, podcasts and social content, support conversational PDF editing and power the new sharing capabilities in PDF Spaces. Customers get the agent through Acrobat AI plans.

Users can also now share branded PDF Spaces with customizable AI Assistants tailored to a specific audience, whether for sales prospecting, content marketing or research delivery. Early adopters of PDF Spaces, including Vice Media, Kid Cudi, Jessica Yellin and Mindy Weiss are using PDF spaces to move audiences from passive reading to interactive engagement…

…Acrobat AI Assistant paid MAU grew over 150% year-over-year and lifetime AI users in Acrobat tripled year-over-year, showing both monetization traction and broad-based engagement.

Under the Creative and Marketing Professionals group, generative credit consumption is growing strongly; traffic from the Creative and Marketing Professionals group was up 50% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); Firefly ARR was up 50% sequentially in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); management has launched Adobe Creative Agent beta; Adobe Creative Agent will be monetised through Adobe’s existing credit consumption model; Adobe Creative Agent is available in the major chatbot products; Firefly’s ending ARR in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2) is approaching $300 million; the number of generated assets in Firefly Enterprise was up 4x year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); Adobe has a partnership with NVIDIA for Firefly Foundry

Demand for AI content creation is exploding across ideation, generation and semantic editing, and generative credit consumption continues to show strong growth…

…In Q2, C&CP traffic to adobe.com grew over 50% year-over-year…

…This immense volume of traffic drawn to the Adobe brand, includes users seeking to purchase Creative Cloud, Photoshop and other CC apps and an increasing number of new users who are looking for Adobe Magic to complete a creative task with a friction-free experience…

…Firefly ARR grew approximately 50% quarter-over-quarter through Firefly apps and credit packs. We were excited to launch the Adobe Creative Agent beta in Q2. The agent is available as part of Creative Cloud and Firefly subscriptions and provides a conversational experience to achieve complex and repetitive creative tasks. Agent usage will be monetized through our existing credit consumption model. The Adobe Creative agent is also available in Claude, ChatGPT and soon, Copilot and Gemini…

…In Premiere, we launched a brand-new color mode, a first-of-its-kind color grading experience built specifically for video editors. We continue to deepen AI capabilities across our flagship Creative Cloud applications Photoshop added Rotate Object and Illustrator released Turntable, both enabling subscribers to turn 2D photos and illustrations into 3D renditions they can rotate and harmonize into their work. Capabilities like these drove record AI usage within our flagship applications.

Firefly continues to support third-party models now with Kling 3.0 and Kling 3.0 Omni. Firefly ending ARR across Firefly App, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise is approaching $300 million exiting Q2. Firefly Enterprise spanning Firefly Services, Adobe Firefly Foundry and Brand Intelligence is helping the world’s largest brands industrialized content production with brand-safe custom models. The number of generated assets grew more than 4x year-over-year making it an AI content engine for marketing at scale.

Our announced NVIDIA partnership will bring accelerated computing to Adobe Firefly Foundry for faster, higher-performing custom models across image, video, audio, vector and 3D, plus a cloud-native 3D digital twin built on Omniverse and OpenUSD.

Adobe’s management is focused on 3 AI-first solutions to target the marketing automation and customer experience orchestration opportunities, namely, Adobe Experience Platform (AEP), Adobe GenStudio, and Adobe Experience Manager (AEM); GenStudio ARR was up 25% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); subscription revenue for AEP was up 30% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2); AEP delivers 70 billion profile activations and 35 trillion segment evaluations daily, and 1 trillion experiences annually; more than 80% of AEP and AEM customers are now using Adobe’s agentic capabilities; there are 1,500 customer trials happening for Adobe’s agentic web offerings; management recently launched Adobe CX Enterprise, which is an agentic system for enterprises to manage their entire customer life cycle; CX Enterprise has a feature called CX Enterprise Coworker, which is a specialised AI agent that executes tasks based on business goals; CX Enterprise Coworker has seen great customer interest since launch, with 150 enterprises in early adoption; management recently launched Adobe Brand Intelligence, which helps enterprises create and validate on-brand content; Adobe Brand Intelligence is headless, so it can integrate with other apps outside of Adobe; in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q2), Adobe announced native integrations on major AI platforms; CX Enterprise Coworker capabilities are integrated into NVIDIA’s NemoClaw platform; global agencies are standardising on Adobe partly for its AI capabilities

The opportunity for AI-powered marketing automation and customer experience orchestration is large and growing, and we are continuing to gain market share and expand our leadership. We are focused on 3 critical AI-first solutions: Adobe Experience Platform and native apps for customer engagement; Adobe GenStudio for content supply chain; and Adobe Experience Manager agentic web apps for brand visibility…

…GenStudio ending ARR grew over 25% year-over-year as leading brands and agencies continue to standardize on Adobe to power their content supply chain;
Subscription revenue for AEP and native apps grew over 30% year-over-year. AEP delivers over 70 billion profile activations and 35 trillion segment evaluations per day, as well as more than 1 trillion experiences per year;
Over 80% of AEP and AEM customers are now using agentic capabilities built into our products.
Over 1,500 customer trials are underway for our agentic web offerings — Adobe LLM Optimizer, Sites Optimizer and Brand Concierge…

…We launched Adobe CX Enterprise, a new end-to-end agentic AI system that simplifies how enterprises manage their entire customer life cycle, from acquiring and engaging prospects to driving conversion and lasting loyalty. Adobe CX Enterprise brings together AI agents, agent skills and Model Context Protocol endpoints with an intelligence and governance layer to deliver reliable and auditable agentic workflows that enable highly personalized, differentiated customer experiences. Over 20,000 global brands have built their business on Adobe and CX Enterprise will help usher them into the era of agentic AI. As part of CX Enterprise, we announced CX Enterprise Coworker, a specialized AI agent that executes tasks based on business goals, dramatically increasing productivity and campaign execution. CX Enterprise Coworker has garnered tremendous customer interest since launch, with over 150 leading enterprises in the early adoption program prior to general availability this week…

…We also introduced Adobe Brand Intelligence, a continuous learning system that helps enterprises create and validate on-brand content faster and with less effort. Adobe Brand Intelligence learns from creative and marketing team feedback, approvals and rejections in real time. It is a headless platform exposed through APIs, so it can integrate with existing first and third-party apps rather than running as a separate app…

…In Q2, we announced native integrations with major enterprise AI platforms, including Microsoft Copilot, Anthropic, OpenAI and Google Gemini. Our partnership with NVIDIA brings CX Enterprise Coworker capabilities into the NemoClaw enterprise agent platform, enabling brands to deploy Adobe’s customer experience intelligence within NVIDIA’s secure policy-governed OpenShell run time. Leading global agencies, including Dentsu, Havas, Omnicom, Publicis, Stagwell and WPP are standardizing on Adobe, combining our AI-powered capabilities with their unique IP and industry expertise to co-develop innovative, differentiated solutions for joint clients.

Adobe’s management has seen AI driving companies to add to all the capital that’s already being spent on coding, and they think a similar dynamic will happen with the creative industry; management wants Adobe to be the AI platform for all creativity across all surfaces

I like to also characterize this much like what’s happened with the code opportunity. If you think about what’s happened with the code opportunity across AI, it’s just completely being turned upside down. And every company is thinking about how they can add to all of the billions that is already spent in code. The same opportunity exists, I think, in every single category, whether that’s gaming, entertainment and creativity. And this is an opportunity for us not just to focus on creative pros and communicators who’ve traditionally been the strength of this company, but to actually become that AI platform for all creativity across every single surface. The success that we’ve seen associated with what we have done on these new products. We talked about the MAU, we’ve talked about the ARR that’s coming. We want to just have a singular focus right now to make sure that we go capture that immense opportunity with a singular focus and a clear marketing message.

Adobe’s management thinks the company is uniquely suited to tackle creativity solutions, in relation to possible competition from the AI platform companies

Whether it’s Amazon, Microsoft or Google, we are huge users of their cloud services, which at the end of the day is a significant revenue stream for them. So we have great partnerships with all three of them. I think with Google specifically, we also partner on how we can jointly go to media and entertainment. We are a big user of their Nano Banana within our applications. So I think there’s a lot of synergy associated with that.

I think with OpenAI and with Anthropic, they are looking to say, how can they become more of a sort of platform of choice and provide us. I think all of their focus right now, I would say, Brad, is on code. And that’s where everybody is doing a [indiscernible] left on that. And I think creativity is an area that we not only have a passion for that we’re uniquely qualified, and so this is our time and our opportunity to leverage everything that they are providing. And so with every one of them, we have a great partnership. But I think as it relates to the consumer side of creativity, which is where this is going after, we’re, I think, a company of one in terms of the focus that we can have on that particular business.

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL)

Oracle had very strong year-on-year revenue growth of 93% for its Cloud Infrastructure business in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q4), driven by AI demand

Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, reflecting strong demand for both AI workloads and our database services, and cloud apps was up double-digit at plus 10%.

Oracle’s gross margin for FY2026 has declined as it builds out its AI infrastructure business; the buildout has also caused free cash flow to be negative; management expects Oracle’s capex to be more than $70 billion for fiscal 2027; management sees strong returns on the capex Oracle is deploying; Oracle will be raising $40 billion in debt and equity in fiscal 2027 to support its capex; Oracle’s capex is creating near-term pressure on gross margins, but management expects rapid improvement in the margins once Oracle’s data centers reach full contractual revenues; management actually wants to accelerate Oracle’s capex; management sees the returns on Oracle’s capex to be in the high 20s percentage at steady state, with even higher returns for capex that support bring-your-own-hardware contracts

For the full year, our gross margin stepped down around 5 points as expected as we start to see the impacts from the build-out of our infrastructure business and the acceleration in its revenues, primarily offset by lower operating costs as a percentage of revenue, driven by operating efficiencies. All of this translated into strong cash flow from operations of $32 billion, up 54%. We did continue with our program of capital investment tied to unlocking the strong growth opportunities in front of us. Our net cash outlay for capital expenditures for the full year was $48 billion, taking into account equity payments and timing impacts of around $8 billion…

…We’ll continue those investments in our fiscal year 2027, with an expected net cash outlay for capital expenditures of around $70 billion. This includes customer prepayments and timing impacts expected at around $20 billion to $25 billion, so our reported CapEx will be higher by this amount. Importantly, these investments are being driven by committed customer demand reflected in our record RPO, giving us confidence in our long-term outlook as well as strong returns on the capital we’re deploying…

…To support our capital investment program, we expect to raise around $40 billion in debt and equity in our fiscal year ’27 and that includes our already announced $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance. We don’t anticipate raising additional debt funding in calendar year 2026…

…While these investments are creating pressure on the near term to gross margins in our infrastructure business, we expect margin performance in infrastructure to improve rapidly as we reach full contractual revenue levels at our data centers…

…Part of my job is to figure out ways to actually accelerate CapEx. Hilary has a tough life. My job is starting to spend the money a little bit faster, so I can get ramped revenue sometimes…

…The way I think about return from that business model is in return on invested capital. And what we see is return on invested capital in the high 20s at a steady state. So once the revenues have ramped for large projects at the project level. And that doesn’t take into account upside like who knows if the GPUs don’t need to be replaced over the long term and things like that. Just purely in the steady state, when we’re at the steady state of the contracts that we have. And as we’re generally able to preserve and improve margins in the case of things like bring-your-own-hardware, the ROIC structures, the ROIC for those types of structures will be even higher. And again, that back of envelope, I’m just calculating return on invested capital is after-tax operating margin plus depreciation divided by gross investments, so total gross CapEx at the project level.

Oracle’s remaining performance obligation (RPO) in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q4) was up 363% year-on-year to $638 billion (was $553 billion in 2025 Q4), driven by demand for AI infrastructure

Our remaining performance obligations, or RPO, finished at $638 billion, up 363%. This unprecedented level of RPO provides exceptional visibility into our future revenue growth, all supported by long-term contractual customer commitments and reflects the strong customer demand we see across both AI infrastructure and cloud services.

Oracle’s management sees customers wanting to use AI to increase productivity quickly, and within budget; Oracle’s customers are now past the experimental stage with AI and are looking to implement enterprise-grade agentic solutions; Oracle’s customers are looking to leverage their proprietary data with AI; management is seeing customers wanting to achieve a positive ROI from AI quickly

Our customers are now focused on how to leverage AI in their own businesses. They want AI to increase productivity, enhance customer service, and create real competitive advantages. But they want to do it quickly and within their existing budget envelope…

…Our customers have moved past the experiment stage with AI. They are ready to implement enterprise-grade, complete agentic solutions to help run their businesses…

…I’m also having very interesting conversations with our customers around leveraging their own proprietary data sets with AI. Much of this data already sits in an Oracle database or is generated by Oracle applications. For many enterprises, inferencing against decades of rich operations data is where the benefits of AI compound exponentially…

…One of the things we’re increasingly hearing from customers is how much are we going to spend on AI? And how do I get ROI very quickly?

Oracle’s management sees Oracle having a unique advantage in AI by providing the entire suite of applications, data, infrastructure, and AI tooling; Oracle has delivered over 1,000 AI agents over the past year; management sees Oracle as being the fastest, most affordable way for customers to consume AI; Oracle’s customers are looking to leverage their proprietary data with AI, and much of this data is already in an Oracle database; management thinks inference against proprietary data is how enterprises can benefit from AI; Oracle’s full stack allows customers to quickly leverage AI with their private data; Claro, National Health Service, Lojas, and QXO are examples of customers using all or parts of Oracle’s full stack for AI

Oracle’s unique advantage is that we deliver the applications, the data, the infrastructure, the AI tooling, and the industry expertise together. That combination invariably puts us at the center of customer conversations, whether they’re existing Oracle customers or not…

…Over the past year, we have delivered more than 1,000 AI agents across our application suites. These agentic-based offerings can reason, decide, and execute work across processes. So the quickest, most affordable and most productive way customers can begin consuming AI is just to continue using Oracle’s applications. Since every 3 months, they get more and more of the AI features built for them and ready to go. This is a major shift in enterprise software, and Oracle is uniquely positioned to lead it…

This is why Claro, a major telecommunications provider in Latin America, chose OCI, field services applications and our AI data platform to automate customer service for their 30 million subscribers this quarter. U.K. National Health Service’s Shared Business Services; Lojas, the Brazilian retailer; and QXO, the fastest-growing building products distributor in the United States, combined AI-ready Oracle infrastructure or database products with Oracle applications to move their businesses forward.

Oracle’s management recently launched Oracle AI Agent Memory for developers to build agents that can remember and utilise enterprise context; management recently launched Oracle Deep Data Security that precisely limits what an AI agent can see or act upon; management has added vector database search and other features into Oracle’s database product

Last quarter, we also released a long list of major new AI functionality in the Oracle database. Here are just 2 examples. The Oracle AI Agent Memory is a library that helps developers build agents that can remember, reason and act with enterprise context. Oracle Deep Data Security has data access rules at the database level. This protects against both unauthorized access and it limits precisely what data a user and any AI agent acting on their behalf can see or act upon…

…The innovation in the database, I mentioned a couple of Deep Data Security and Agent Memory that we put into the database, things like vector database search and features that we’ve been adding into the database are part and parcel to the companies’ AI strategies.

Oracle’s management is simplifying how customers consume and pay for AI agents; customers can purchase additional tokens on top of the AI innovation they are getting from Oracle for free; management is introducing outcome-based pricing models, such as interview agents that are priced based on the number of candidates screened; management had a limited roll out of Oracle’s token bundle in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q4); the limited roll out already saw 33 customers repurchase tokens; it can be tricky to price on outcomes if the company offering the agentic service is not the entity that’s creating the outcome, but in Oracle’s case, it has a full stack service, so it’s easy to measure outcomes; management expects the initiative to simplify how customers consume and pay for AI agents to resonate with customers and boost Oracle’s growth

We are simplifying how customers consume and pay for agentic capabilities. Our new agentic pricing aligns with customer value. Now much of our AI innovation in our core applications continues to be included at no extra charge. However, customers can also purchase additional agentic capacity in a simple, predictable way by purchasing bundles of tokens that can be used across our application suites. We’re also introducing outcome-based commercial models that align pricing directly to the value derived. For example, interview agents that are priced based on the number of candidates screened or hospitality upsell agents priced on the percentage of end consumer upsell transactions. In Q4, we started a limited rollout of our token bundles and had 33 customers, like Aon Services Corporation and Liberty Energy, repurchase tokens to have access to more advanced reasoning and models…

…In health care, in our new AI-based automated agents where we’re automating doctors’ notes, we’re automating lab orders. We’re able to measure and actually price based on patient throughput, which is what the providers — one of the things providers care about is how many people can we get through a health care system, reduce waiting queues, give better service to patients…

…The sort of difficult thing is that you’re not creating the outcome in the first place, that’s a tricky thing to price in. But since we’ve made this full stack investment and since we’re able to very easily take the best of the output from the large language models to our customers, pair that with our — both our horizontal applications and our industry applications, we have a very easy way to measure outcomes for our customers…

…We’re allowing as much flexibility and as much aligned with the value in our pricing models across our entire application suite as we possibly can. And I expect that, that will continue to resonate well with customers as it did in the quarter. And as we roll it out across our entire fleet, it certainly should be helpful for our growth story as well.

Oracle’s management thinks the AI infrastructure market dwarfs the existing cloud infrastructure market; management sees the AI infrastructure market as being trillions of dollars per year

Cloud infrastructure has become a very large market because of the ever-growing demand for server-side computing. AI infrastructure makes the existing cloud infrastructure market look small. Everything we see shows this market size is trillions of dollars per year.

Most of Oracle’s AI infrastructure contracts signed in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q4) are either bring-your-own hardware or prepaid; bring-your-own hardware and prepaid contracts have similar margins as Oracle’s other contracts; Oracle delivered 1.2 gigawatts of AI infrastructure to customers in FY2026, with 2026 Q2 (FY2027 Q1) deliveries already approaching 1 gigawatt; management thinks there will be many winners in AI and they want all of them as Oracle customers; Oracle’s AI infrastructure business has many tenants; Oracle had 35,000 GPUs from 59 customers come up for renewals in 2026 Q1 (FY2026 Q4) and 49% of those customers renewed for 92% of the GPUs, with the remaining 8% sold to other customers; Oracle’s global GPU utilisation is 97.5%; Oracle’s Abilene, Texas AI data centre has delivered 42% of its total capacity, with 35% of further capacity to be delivered in the next 90 days; Oracle’s Shackelford, Texas AI data center will begin delivery to customers in 2027 H1; Oracle’s Dona Ana County, New Mexico AI data center will start customer delivery in 2027 H1; Oracle’s Saline, Michigan AI data center will start customer delivery in 2027 H2; Oracle’s Port Washington, Wisconsin AI data center will start customer delivery in 2027 H2; management thinks the propensity for customers to renew AI infrastructure contracts with Oracle depends on the company’s ability to maintain massive GPU clusters; management sees a path for Oracle’s AI infrastructure business to earn higher margins over time even as it lowers prices for customers; for the bring-your-own-hardware AI infrastructure business, Oracle is providing data centers that are properly constructed and designed, the appropriate networking technologies, and every other thing necessary apart from the AI accelerator chips; it’s not easy to operate the bring-your-own-hardware AI infrastructure business

We signed $67 billion in AI infrastructure contracts this quarter, the majority of which was either bring-your-own-hardware or prepaid. This increases our combination of bring-your-own-hardware or prepaid customer contracts to $75 billion, with those contracts having no degradation in margin compared to our other contracts…

…Q4 finalizes an impressive FY ’26 where we delivered more than 1.2 gigawatts to customers. Our pace of delivery continues to accelerate with our FY ’27 Q1 delivery approaching 1 gigawatt, nearly the same capacity as we’ve delivered in the previous 4 quarters combined. There will be many winners named, and our strategy is to have them all as customers. We continue to diversify across our largest customers with 4 customers contracting for more than $8 billion this quarter.

Our infrastructure is fundamentally multitenant, and we continually allocate capacity between customers. In Q4, 35,000 GPUs from 59 separate customers were up for renewal. 49% of those customers renewed for 92% of those GPUs. That doesn’t mean, though, that 8% of those GPUs were idle. Most of those GPUs themselves were subsequently sold to other customers in the same quarter. Our global GPU utilization rate is 97.5%…

…Abilene, Texas today has delivered 42% of the total capacity. An additional 35% of capacity will be delivered in the next 90 days, with the remainder delivering in the subsequent quarter. Moving forward to Shackelford, Texas. We contracted this in August of 2025. Customer delivery begins in the first half of FY ’27 — sorry, first half of calendar year ’27. 115 megawatts of power capacity is already available online, more than 1 month ahead of schedule. If we take a look at Doña Ana County, New Mexico. We contracted this in September of 2025. Customer delivery begins in the first half of calendar year ’27 as well. Power design is based on gigawatts of clean, energy-efficient Bloom fuel cells. If we look at Saline, Michigan, we contracted this in October of 2025. Customer delivery begins in the second half of 2027. The network core is ahead of schedule and delivered at the end of this calendar year. And then to the final site I want to touch on, Port Washington, Wisconsin. This was contracted in September of 2025 and delivery begins in the second half of calendar year ’27…

…I find that largely what affects future renewals is that several years of relationship that we’re going to have between now and then. And we’re fundamentally in the service business. If you think that you’re just buying something and then you’re done with it, it’s not the way it works, right? These people are relying on what we do at Oracle to run and maintain these massive clusters every day…

…As the market continues to mature, and we deploy more and more of our research and development dollars and making things more efficient, I think there’s ways that Oracle gets higher and higher margins, but we actually can offer lower and lower prices to our customers….

…One of the things that Oracle can provide to our customers is that we can go out and put upfront capital and then depreciate that over a period of time and help finance the customers’ usage of that. But that’s not the only thing we provide and for a lot of customers it’s not even the most important thing to provide. What they contract with us for is the ability to go out and get the data centers constructed, design them properly, secure them, design networks that go inside of them, install a cloud, give them a complementary set of services around the specific hardware because it turns out that a set of these accelerators on their own is not functioning cloud. You need general purpose compute, you need general purpose storage, you need load balancers, you need security function, you need identity. You need all of that to actually make this stuff usable and Oracle provides all of that…

…Anyone that thinks that these things are easy to operate is very confused. So you’re not just buying a single rack and putting it into your data hall. These are extremely complex clusters that require constant care and feeding, constant maintenance across the network and the hardware itself.

Oracle’s management sees agentic coding as the most obvious and valuable use case of AI; Oracle’s internal demand for agentic coding is not slowing down and the same goes for the company’s customers; management sees enormous demand for agentic coding

AI is delivering value on multiple fronts, but the most clear and obvious is agentic coding. This is an area where we have a front row seat as both the provider and as a consumer. Agentic coding tools has completely changed how Oracle operates, and we see no slowdown in our own demand for such capabilities. The same is true for all the customers and partners we work with. The demand for AI infrastructure in this domain alone is enormous, ignoring the many, many other growth areas.

Oracle’s management sees demand for AI infrastructure to be massively higher than supply for at least a few years ahead

I think there’s clearly several years in, there’s still a massively higher demand than there is supply.

Oracle’s management thinks the SaaSpocalypse does not apply to mission-critical software systems, as customers realise that AI that’s built into existing SaaS solutions is a good approach

As far as impact of SaaSapocalypse, I would say maybe a couple of quarters ago, there were some delayed decision cycles out there as customers saw through that. But really, particularly in the mission-critical systems space, which is where we play at Oracle, people have quickly moved on to that and realized that enterprise software, particularly when you have AI built into our SaaS solutions is certainly a very good approach and is necessary to move forward for the modernization and protection of their businesses.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Adobe. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

What We’re Reading (Week Ending 14 June 2026)

The best articles we’ve read in recent times on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.

Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!

But since our readership-audience for The Good Investors is wider than our subscriber base, we think sharing the reading list regularly on the blog itself can benefit even more people. The articles we share touch on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

Here are the articles for the week ending 14 June 2026:

1. Gas Prices, Stock Bubbles, Grad Advice — And Teaching Personal Finance In School (Transcript here) – Morgan Housel

I want to start with what is the biggest economic news story of this year: the war in Iran. For most of you listening or watching, the biggest impact that’s had on your life is the rise in gas prices and oil prices. I want to make a very nuanced point here about making predictions about the future, which is so common in economics, and so difficult and humbling.

When the war in Iran first started about three months ago, it was very common among the smartest, most astute, most educated economists, oil analysts, and talking heads to make predictions along these lines: if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for another week or two, you’re not going to see a rise in oil prices — you’re going to see an explosion of oil prices. Not $100 a barrel, but $150, $200, $250. Not $4 gas, but $7, $8, $9 gas, with flights being cancelled. Those predictions have been made for months, and it was always along the lines of “if it stays closed for another week or two, this is going to happen.”

I want to make this point without minimizing what’s happened to gas prices all over the world and what could happen in the future. I don’t want to say, “Look at all these people — they were wrong,” because the price of oil today is about where it was three months ago when the war first started. It surged and then plateaued at this level. That is something almost no one watching this three months ago would have predicted. Virtually everybody, if you had told them we would be three months into this war with the Strait of Hormuz closed, would have said this is going to be a Mad Max scenario in oil. And so far, as I record this, it has not been.

I want to make an important point here without making any predictions about what might happen next — almost the opposite point, about why these kinds of things happen. There is such a long history in economics, in politics, and in any kind of social world that makes predicting what’s going to happen next so hard, even when it seems like the most rational conclusion. It’s so appealing and so easy to make simple predictions: if X happens, Y will be the result. Very appealing, and I think very comforting, because when you make a prediction like that, it gives you — or the person listening to that forecast — a sense of control in a world that is uncertain, if not unpredictable.

I say this with the glory of hindsight and nothing else; I would not have known any of this three months ago. But from my understanding, a lot of why oil has not yet reached those Mad Max levels, despite being three months into the Strait of Hormuz closure, comes down to a few reasons. Number one, the United States is exporting oil and gas like never before, which has taken some of the supply-crunch pressure off. Number two, Saudi Arabia has a series of oil pipelines that have been massively extended and expanded over the last three months — one big pipeline going to the Red Sea has gone from 2 million barrels a day to 7 million barrels a day, taking a lot of pressure off oil that used to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Number three, China has massively decreased the level of its oil imports. And number four, all over the world, we’ve been draining down oil stocks and reserves. Can that last forever? Of course not. I’m not making any predictions about what’s going to happen next.

The point I want to make — in a much broader way that applies to so many more things in the world of money and economics than just the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices — is that it is extremely difficult to know how people are going to adapt and evolve to a change in the economy. It’s very easy to say “if X, then Y,” and it makes a lot of sense and it’s very comforting. It’s much more difficult to say, “If the Strait of Hormuz closes, then people are going to adapt in this way, and this way, and this other way, and therefore we don’t really know what the end result is going to be.” There are so many cases like this, whether it’s housing prices, stock prices, whatever it might be.

I’ll give you one example that was crazy at the time. 2009 was one of the worst years in economic history since the Great Depression — absolutely dreadful, during the financial crisis. Stocks finished up that year. They increased. It’s so easy to say that the second coming of the Great Depression would be bad for the stock market; that’s a very easy prediction to make. It was much more difficult to see how people, prices, and valuations would adapt and respond in that era.

I was thinking about this recently because gas prices in my town went up tremendously in the last three months, but they’ve been about the same for the last two and a half. They exploded at the beginning of the war and then plateaued. Looking into how the global oil market has adapted and evolved — and again, maybe that doesn’t last forever, I’m not making any prediction — it’s so important to have a sense of humility about how complex the global economy is, and about people’s ability to adapt in ways you never saw coming. That’s what makes predictions about what’s going to happen this year, next year, or over the next month so difficult.

The last thing I’ll say about the psychology of making predictions: it is very common that the higher the stakes, the more people are willing to believe forecasts. When the stakes are really high — gas prices could explode so much that you can’t afford your commute, or your flights are cancelled — people are willing to believe anybody who says, “I can tell you what’s going to happen next.” That becomes very appealing. The irony is that when the stakes are that high and things are moving that quickly, that’s when forecasts become the least reliable. The demand for forecasts increases exactly when the forecasts themselves become least reliable, because people are adapting and changing so quickly. That is why there is such a long history of economic forecasts for things that never happened.

2. Avoiding Death on the Yellow Brick Road – Joe Schmidt IV

The Yellow Brick Road is our shorthand for the path the labs are walking, where they’re committing extraordinary resources. The reason the labs are best-suited for problems like code generation, writing, or image-creation is because these problems improve with raw model capability: every dollar spent on pre-training and post-training improves product quality. Meanwhile, the rest of Oz is inhabited by more complex, often vertical problems, that aren’t as simple as giving a business user a horizontal tool with access to standard tools and computer use. The value comes less from the underlying model’s raw capability (though that’s still important!) than from the scaffolding around it that makes the output trustworthy, compliant, and operational inside a specific industry…

…The labs will certainly improve, but I’d argue there are a few ways the rest of Oz can defend themselves over time:

Data and learning flywheels: A lot of what you internalize isn’t in any training set — unwritten industry norms, undocumented standards, the tribal knowledge that lives in practitioners’ heads. None of it is on the public web. No amount of training compute substitutes for being inside the workflows where this knowledge actually lives. There are two flywheels stacked on top of each other here: an across-customer one — patterns that compound as you see more variants of the same problem — and a within-customer one — the why behind specific decisions, the unsaid exceptions, the firm’s own rules of thumb that only surface through real interaction with the system…

…A horizontal agent could in principle build the same learning infrastructure. The reason it doesn’t, beyond pure focus, is UX: capturing this kind of knowledge depends entirely on the workflow surfaces you give the user, and vertical players can shape those surfaces around exactly what their workflow needs to surface. Horizontal tools can’t. Eval sets, labeled outputs, and edge-case taxonomies can compound into a vertical-specific data flywheel which can fuel fine-tuning the next entrant can’t generate without comparable production exposure. Whether this is possible depends on data rights, the volume of production exposure accumulated, and the structure of customer contracts, but pattern recognition accrues regardless.

Managing model variability and complexity: The labs are already routing internally — different model classes for different requests, ensembles under the hood. What they can’t do is route across vendors, or evaluate a competitor’s model for a specific sub-task, or use an open-source fine-tune for the narrow piece where it’s actually best. The Rest of Oz company picks the right model for each sub-task across the entire model market, not just what its parent lab ships. It also does the work nobody wants to do — re-running evals on upgrades, recalibrating prompts for the customer’s edge cases, rolling out without breaking production — every time a new model lands. The labs aren’t doing this on the customer’s behalf; they sell you their next model and tell you to migrate…

…Cost optimization: Running every query through Opus 4.7 is the fastest path to negative gross margins. The best Rest of Oz companies route across tiers of models — frontier models for the hardest tasks, mid-tier for the bulk, smaller custom or fine-tuned models where they’ve earned the right to use them. Some are now post-training their own models on top of that, optimizing them for the narrow slice of work their customer cares about and serving them at a fraction of the cost of a frontier API call…

…Governance: There is considerable value in becoming the control plane for how their customers run AI in that vertical – the place where permissions, auditing, what-the-agent-is-allowed-to-do, and what-the-agent-actually-did all converge. That control plane is built out of use case specific guardrails that look completely different across industries and job types. Because they own the tools, the workflows, and the data the agent touches end-to-end, they can provide deterministic outcomes in ways horizontal tools will struggle to. They are also the entity that absorbs the regulatory complexity for the end buyer — FRCP and bar rules in legal, HIPAA in healthcare, SEC and FINRA in finance, state insurance regulations, and so on. A horizontal player can’t credibly do that without becoming a hundred different verticals at once. CIOs want to have a partner that contractually states they are handling compliance for the agents they are providing.

All of these come back to the same thing: focus. That could be a vertical (insurance, legal, accounting) or a function done deeply (sales, customer support, finance). Either way, the work needs a team that’s heads-down on one customer set — its workflows, its edge cases, its regulations. The labs aren’t built for that. They have to be everywhere, for everyone, which is how they built the Yellow Brick Road in the first place.

3. Sergey Brin: Where Frontier AI Is Headed | Unscripted Q&A @ AGI House × Google DeepMind (Transcript here) – Rocky Yu and Sergey Brin

Sergey Brin: That’s a great question—what’s next after we hit AGI? Everybody is pretty focused on accelerating the growth in AI right now. You’re right: we started with the web and internet search, went through the mobile generation, which was another big explosion, and now AI is a huge new industry trend. What comes after that? I think if you can answer that, you’ll have a fantastic company on your hands…

…Audience Member: I have two questions. First, now that we talk about superintelligence, and AI can help us drive cars and do office work—what kind of thing do you think only humans can do after superintelligence? Second, 20 years ago Google was famous for connecting people, and now it’s a company focused on AI. So my question is about strategy: what do you think Google’s role will be over the next 20 years?

Sergey Brin: Small questions, I guess—what is humanity’s role in this world, and what is Google going to do for the next 20 years? The definition of intelligence has always shifted with what machines can do versus what people can do. For a long time, chess was the measure of intelligence, and then Deep Blue beat Kasparov in the 1990s. The interesting thing is that people kept playing chess. How many people here know who the top-ranked human chess player is? Anyone can yell the name—I’m assuming it’s Magnus Carlsen, and people bounce up and down. But how many know the top-ranked AI program?

Audience Member: Stockfish?

Sergey Brin: That’s the most popular—is it number one? You don’t think AlphaZero can beat Stockfish? Okay, well, you’re the only one who named the top chess program; let’s point that out. My point is that computers doing things well hasn’t stopped humans from getting better and better at them, getting more recognition, and enjoying them. We’ve adjusted our view over time—it used to be that chess was the intelligent thing, then Go was the intelligent thing, then poetry or painting. I think we’re going to find that AIs can do a whole lot of surprising things, but they also help advance people in doing those things. Since AlphaGo, the game of Go has advanced a lot—the players who played against Lee Sedol became vastly better afterward, and Ke Jie did too after he played AlphaGo. It pushed the state of the art. So people will be able to enjoy and do a lot of things even with AI assistance. As for the 20-year question—I don’t know. I think we should let somebody else ask. That’s a big one.

Audience Member: Do you believe transformers are sufficient for AGI?

Sergey Brin: Great question. I’ve asked myself that a bunch of times. Transformers have been weirdly flexible—we use them for image and video in addition to text, and they’ve exceeded their original capability. To be fair, they’ve also changed along the way: we have sparse transformers and a lot of little details that have shifted, so it’s not exactly the same thing as the transformer paper. If I had to guess whether something close to that could be AGI, I’d say yes—just because they’ve been able to evolve so much. But they are changing; it’s not the exact same thing as the original transformer paper…

…Audience Member (Boris): What’s your perspective on how world models can help reach AGI?

Sergey Brin: World models are basically video models. People talk about AGI pretty broadly. I think of AGI as the idea that the AI can actually improve itself. Other people—and they’re probably more correct—think AGI means the AI can do anything a person can do. Those are two different things. To do anything a person can do, you absolutely need to understand and interact with the physical world. So being able to dream or imagine what’s going to happen in the world if you do something, and to comprehend it, is obviously important. If you’re going to do everything—and that extends to robotics—world models are key. You all have probably had more time to play with our Gemini Omni model than I have, honestly, because I’m deep into the self-improvement game. But we’ve been working on that for a long time, and Omni is the latest version. Omni is also pretty cool because it’s the same Gemini—we train it with all the text and all the other things, exactly the same way. The fact that these converge is amazing. But yes, you need that capability for the ability to interact physically.

4. Blackstone Investors Ask to Pull $4.4 Billion From Private-Credit Fund – Matt Wirz

Investors in Blackstone’s flagship private-credit fund, known as Bcred, asked to redeem 10% of their shares in the second quarter, up from about 8% in the first quarter. That amounted to investors asking for $4.4 billion.

Blackstone will limit redemptions from the $79 billion fund to 5%, a reversal from its strategy in March when it opted to pay the full amount requested. The about-face highlights rising financial strain on managers of large private-credit funds marketed to individual investors who continue to ask for their money back…

…“BCRED remains well capitalized, and repayments [from loans] and inflows have outpaced shares repurchased,” the firm said Thursday. It said the fund’s structure, allowing it to limit redemptions, is a core feature that is meant to trade some liquidity for long-term performance…

…Wealthy individuals piled into private-credit funds—known as business-development companies, or BDCs—which invest in high-interest loans to midsize companies and distribute most of the income they collect to shareholders via dividends. The boom ended this year when investors turned bearish over increasing loan defaults and the potential for future losses from lending to software companies.

The Blackstone fund is the largest of the bunch, surging to a high of $82 billion at the end of 2025, but it is now shrinking, cutting into the fees the firm can collect.

5. The AI Price War Is Here, Piling Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic – Bradley Olson and Tina Li

Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises…

…The ecosystem allows autonomous AI systems, or agents, to use cheap models—including those made by Chinese companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek—for many functions. The agents only tap the most capable versions of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude for more complex tasks. That can reduce costs for some AI-assisted work by as much as 95%, according to executives using the tools.

“Once we find something that is working well and engineers love, we find ways to make it cost effective,” said Dan Robinson, founder of Detail, a startup that identifies bugs. “There’s really an embarrassment of riches right now coming out of the open source labs.”

Robinson shifted 90% of Detail’s workload from Claude and Google’s Gemini to custom models and GLM, a family of models developed in China…

…OpenAI is considering drastic cuts to the prices it charges AI users, ahead of similar cuts the company expects at Anthropic, The Wall Street Journal reported. The company sees itself as having an advantage in such a scenario because it spent massive sums in the past year to secure access to computing resources at far lower prices than what’s available now…

…Open-source Chinese models have been rising in popularity across American businesses. DeepSeek’s share of AI usage rose from 1% in April to 17% in May on the startup Vercel’s platform, the company said.

On OpenRouter, another startup that processes AI queries, DeepSeek has been the most-used AI company since mid-May. Among their highest-spending customers, open-source token usage grew four times faster than closed-source between fall 2025 and spring 2026, OpenRouter said. The company has also seen more than 500 organizations swap from proprietary to open-source models…

…Anthropic’s recently-released Fable 5 model is more than 50 times more expensive per token than DeepSeek’s V4 Pro, for example.

But the top proprietary models from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic or Google remain four to six months ahead of open-source competitors, researchers say. In some cases that means they can complete a complex task using fewer tokens, equating to a lower total cost…

…Many companies have begun to design their own AI models using open-source alternatives and say they are managing to reduce AI costs. When companies build in-house models and train them with company data, their performance can improve or even exceed the capabilities of frontier AI models, executives say.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have a vested interest in Alphabet (parent of Google). Holdings are subject to change at any time.

How Bad Is Stock Based Compensation For Investors?

Understanding the true cost of stock based compensation to shareholders.

I’ve written numerous articles about stock-based compensation in the past for a few reasons.

For one, it’s super common. Almost every major tech company in the world pays some form of stock-based compensation to employees. Two, stock-based compensation is the silent killer that destroys shareholder value beneath the surface.

Yet despite these two facts, shareholders still do not seem to fully understand stock-based compensation and the massive impact it has on shareholders.

In this article, I want to show you just how bad stock-based compensation can be for shareholders and why it deserves more attention from investors.

Covid darling

Let’s use the one-time Covid darling, Zoom Communication Inc, as an example. As you probably know, Zoom is a video conferencing software company whose business simply exploded during the COVID lockdowns. Revenue soared and its share price rocketed.

But as the world reopened, Zoom’s growth also stalled and its share price has since come back down to pre-COVID levels.

Today, Zoom is guiding to generate free cash flow of US$1.7 billion for FY2027 (fiscal year ending January 2027). That’s still a decent number, which shows that Zoom continues to be a strong business in the aftermath of COVID.

Investors love using free cash flow to measure a company’s profitability as free cash flow is the cash generated from operations minus cash spent on capital expenses.

In theory, this is cash that can be returned to shareholders via dividends. However, free cash flow does not take into account stock-based compensation.

The hidden cost

Stock-based compensation is the hidden cost that eats into shareholder returns.

In FY2026, Zoom granted 10 million shares to its employees. These are shares that will vest over the next 3-4 years. We can assume that based on Zoom’s grant history, around 10-11 million shares will vest each year. In FY2026, for example, 11 million shares vested.

Zoom has an active share buyback plan. In aggregate, it is buying back more shares than is vesting. But that also means Zoom is actively using its free cash flow to offset the shares that vest – the cost to shareholders is immense!

To buy back the 11 million shares that vested in FY2026, Zoom has to pay around US$1.14 billion (based on its current share price of US$104).

Earlier, I mentioned that Zoom is expecting to generate US$1.7 billion in free cash flow in FY2027. If management decides to offset the stock-based compensation by conducting buybacks, the remaining cash left over for shareholders is less than US$600 million.

Valuations change

Stock-based compensation can, hence, make a huge difference to how we value a company.

In Zoom’s case, the company’s free cash flow of US$1.7 billion looks healthy on the surface and its current market cap of US$31 billion represents a somewhat decent valuation of 18 times free cash flow.

But if you account for the cash that will simply vanish from shareholders’ hands just to offset dilution, the company now only has around US$600m to return to shareholders.

This changes the picture completely. After making this adjustment, at a US$31 billion market cap, Zoom trades at much less palatable 51 times adjusted free cash flow.

The Good Investors Take

Stock based compensation is often the silent killer that destroys shareholder value – more so for companies that rely heavily only on stock-based compensation. As such, the headline free cash flow figure may not present the full picture of how profitable a business is.

Zoom is already a slow growing, mature company. Yet it is still off-setting stock-based compensation with a large part of its free cash flow.

The key thing for investors to note is how much cash can a company actually return to shareholders, once all employees’ stock-based compensation is offset. Only then, can investors truly gauge how much cash is left over for investors.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I don’t have a vested interest in any company mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

What We’re Reading (Week Ending 07 June 2026)

The best articles we’ve read in recent times on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.

Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!

Here are the articles for the week ending 07 June 2026:

1. Most of the Economy Won’t Run on the Best Model – Rihard Jarc

When a company hires an accountant, it does not go out and hire a PhD in pure mathematics to reconcile the ledgers. Not because the PhD couldn’t do it — they obviously could, and probably faster — but because it makes no economic sense. The PhD is overqualified, which is just another way of saying they are too expensive for the value the task produces. The economic output of bookkeeping is capped. There is only so much upside in getting the books done. So you hire the cheapest person who clears the quality bar, and you pocket the difference…

…If you are running a drug-discovery program, you absolutely want the PhD — in fact you want five of them, plus a Nobel laureate consulting on the side. Why? Because the economic output of a single discovery is enormous, almost unbounded…

…This is, I think, exactly how the AI model market is going to bifurcate…

…Today, essentially everyone uses the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for everything. You want to summarize an email? SOTA model. Classify a support ticket? SOTA model. Extract three fields from an invoice? SOTA model. We do this for one simple reason: the frontier models have only just crossed the threshold of being broadly truly impactful for knowledge work, and when something has only just started working, you reach for the best version of it you can find. You don’t optimize cost on a capability you weren’t sure you had last quarter.

But I believe this is a transitional behavior, not a stable equilibrium…

…We have a rapidly falling price for any given level of capability and frontier that is already shrinking in size in terms of what is actually being deployed, and we have companies burning through their annual token budgets in a matter of months.

As such, I believe that for the overwhelming majority of economically valuable knowledge work, the correct model is not the SOTA model. It’s the cheapest model that clears the task’s quality bar. And as pilots move into full production (which is the stage we are in today) — where you’re suddenly paying for millions or billions of tokens a day instead of running a demo — intelligence-per-dollar becomes the only metric that survives contact with a CFO…

…The sellers of new compute (semis) are only winners in a world of continued high-cadence spending on new compute. And my thesis specifically questions whether that cadence is necessary. So let me lay out the two states the world can be in, because the asymmetry between them is the whole argument.

Scenario 1: Capex falls or stabilizes. If you can squeeze an order of magnitude more useful tokens out of the hardware you already own — because models got smaller, cheaper, more efficient and verticalized — then you no longer need to spend $100bn+ every single year just to stay relevant. In this world, the owners of the installed base win and the sellers of new compute lose. Hyperscaler free cash flow inflects sharply upward, because capex was the one thing suppressing it. Multiples re-rate higher as the cloud business converts from a capex incinerator into a cash machine running largely paid-for, partly-depreciated hardware. And the semis de-rate, because the market finally realizes the upgrade treadmill has slowed.

Scenario 2: Capex stays high — and revenue explodes. This is the Jevons-paradox-on-steroids case. Demand is so strong that hyperscalers do both: they extract enormous output from cheap, long-lived existing hardware and keep buying new gear. Here everyone wins at once — but the hyperscalers win more, because their incremental revenue now lands on a cost base that is partly depreciated and dramatically more efficient per token. Operating leverage goes vertical.

2. Calling the Top – Dirtcheapstocks

Spacex is set to go public next month.

I read the S1 and felt like I was watching “Whose Line is it Anyway?”. You know, the show where everything’s made up and the points don’t matter…

…Spacex is eyeing a ~$1.8 trillion valuation, from the latest reports I’ve seen. SPCX did $18.7B of revenue and generated a net loss of $4.9B in 2025. Free cash flow was severely negative: -$15.8B (adjusting for stock-based comp).

So the business is valued at ~100x revenue, and revenue has been growing at a ~34% CAGR over the last two years. Q1 2026 revenue grew 15% yoy.

The business has never sustained profitability, as evidenced by a $41B accumulated deficit…

…If you pay $1.8T for a business, and want a 10% return, you need it to send you $180B in year one. If it sends you $0 in year 1, you need it to produce $198B in year 2, and every year after that until the end of days. If year 2 also produces $0, you need year 3, and every year beyond that, to produce $218B.

I don’t think it’s likely that SPCX will reach profitability in the next couple years…

…According to ChatGPT, General Motors (in the 1950’s) was the largest company in American history when measured on GAAP revenue as a percent of GDP.

This isn’t a perfect metric, but I think it helps us get a rough feel for how large a company can become as compared to the ecosystem in which it exists.

GM’s revenue was equal to ~2.3% of American GDP. This shouldn’t be surprising as GM had ~50% market share in the second most expensive asset Americans owned…

…Now let’s take this metric and apply it to SPCX.

U.S. GDP is ~$32T today. Historically speaking, it would be difficult for a single business to earn more than $750B in annual revenue.

But SPCX will conquer the world (and Mars), so let’s assume it shatters the record. Maybe SPCX revenue can be 3% of GDP, beating out every business in history by 30%!

That would imply SPCX revenue of $960B. So what kind of profit margin can we expect for this business…

…But let’s say SPCX is a killer business at scale and it can achieve 20% operating margins, and 15% net margins. And let’s say it takes us 10 years to work our way there.

So, at a $1.8T valuation, we need $180B of cash in our pocket this year to generate a 10% return.

If we are unable to earn an cumulative profit above $0 for the next 10 years, then year 11 (and every year after that) needs to pay us $466B!

Alright, so we need $466B of profit in year 11. At 15% net margins, that means we need $3.1T of revenue.

If nominal GDP compounds at 7% for a decade, then GDP will have grown to ~$64T. So, SPCX in year 11, will need to have grown its revenue to ~4.8% of GDP ($3.1T / $64T) – a percentage more than double any company in history.

To get to $3.1T of revenue in 10 years, SPCX will need to grow its top line at 67% annually. The past couple years have shown revenue growth in the 30’s…

Hmm, this is getting difficult.

3. X thread on the difference between HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) – Eugene Ng

HBF is essentially HBM but with NAND flash dies instead of DRAM. It uses similar 3D stacking and TSV technology, delivering 8-16x higher capacity than HBM in a comparable footprint, while offering similar bandwidth, much lower cost per GB, lower power, and acceptable latency for read-heavy AI inference workloads (e.g., massive model weights, long context windows, and large KV caches)…

…HBF Shines in Inference: AI inference (LLM serving) is dominated by read-heavy, capacity-bound tasks, loading huge models, managing long contexts, and high-throughput batching. HBF excels better than HBM…

…Limitations: HBF has significantly higher latency (~10 µs, roughly 100x slower than HBM), slower write performance, and limited endurance (~100k write/erase cycles), making it unsuitable for frequent updates during training…

…Training vs. Inference Shift: As inference grows faster than training in overall AI compute, hybrid HBM + HBF setups are superior to HBM alone. HBM dominates training, while HBF’s capacity and cost advantages break the “memory wall” for cheaper, higher-throughput inference at scale…

…Bottom line: HBF expands the total AI memory TAM without cannibalising HBM. It creates a new high-value inference tier, making the overall market more competitive, multi-layered, and resilient, which is great for innovation and supply diversity.

4. Project Glasswing: what Mythos showed us – Grant Bourzikas

Mythos Preview is a real step forward, and it’s worth saying that plainly before getting into anything else. We’ve been running models against our code for a while now, and the jump from what was possible with previous general-purpose frontier models to what Mythos Preview does today is not just a refinement of what came before.

It’s a different kind of tool doing a different kind of work, and that makes a clean apples-to-apples comparison to earlier models difficult. So rather than trying to benchmark Mythos Preview against general-purpose frontier models, it’s more useful to describe what it can actually do, and two features that stood out across the work we did with Mythos Preview:

Exploit chain construction – A real attack rarely uses one bug. It chains several small attack primitives together into a working exploit. For instance, it might turn a use-after-free bug into an arbitrary read and write primitive, hijack the control flow, and use return-oriented programming (ROP) chains to take full control over a system. Mythos Preview can take several of these primitives and reason about how to combine them into a working proof. The reasoning it shows along the way looks like the work of a senior researcher rather than the output of an automated scanner.
Proof generation – Finding a bug and proving it’s exploitable are two different things, and Mythos Preview can do both. It writes code that would trigger the suspected bug, compiles that code in a scratch environment, and runs it. If the program does what the model expected, that’s the proof. If it doesn’t, the model reads the failure, adjusts its hypothesis, and tries again. The loop matters as much as the bugs it finds, because a suspected flaw without a working proof is speculation, and Mythos Preview closes that gap on its own.

Some of what we describe above is not entirely unique to Mythos Preview. When we ran other frontier models through the same harness, they found a fair number of the same underlying bugs, and in some cases they got further than we expected on the reasoning side too. Where they fell short was at the point of stitching the pieces together. A model would identify an interesting bug, write a thoughtful description of why it mattered, and then stop, leaving the actual chain unfinished and the question of exploitability open.

The Mythos Preview model provided by Anthropic, as part of Project Glasswing, did not have the additional safeguards that are present in generally available models (like Opus 4.7 or GPT-5.5).

Despite this, the model organically pushes back on certain requests – much like the cyber capabilities that made it useful for vulnerability hunting, the model has its own emergent guardrails that sometimes cause it to push back on legitimate security research requests. But as we found, these organic refusals aren’t consistent – the same task, framed differently or presented in a different context, could produce completely different outcomes…

…When we first started AI-assisted vulnerability research last year, our instinct was the obvious one: point a generic coding agent at an arbitrary repository and ask it to discover vulnerabilities. This approach works, in the sense that the model will produce findings, but it doesn’t work in producing meaningful coverage of a real codebase and identifying findings of value…

…Four lessons came out of running the work at scale, and each one pointed to the need for a harness that manages the overall execution:

Narrow scope produces better findings – Telling the model “Find vulnerabilities in this repository” makes it wander. Telling it “Look for command injection in this specific function, with this trust boundary above it, here’s the architecture document and here’s prior coverage of this area” makes it do something much closer to what a researcher would actually do.
Adversarial review reduces noise – Adding a second agent between the initial finding and the queue – one with a different prompt, a different model, and no ability to generate its own findings – catches a lot of the noise that the first agent would miss if it just checked its own work. It turns out that putting two agents in deliberate disagreement is way more effective than just telling one agent to be careful.
Splitting the chain across agents produces better reasoning – Asking “Is this code buggy?” and “Can an attacker actually reach this bug from outside the system?” are two different questions, and the model is better at each one when you ask them separately, because each question is narrower than the combined version.
Parallel narrow tasks beat one exhaustive agent – Coverage improves when many agents work on tightly scoped questions and we deduplicate the results afterward, rather than asking one agent to be exhaustive.

Each of those observations is about model behavior, and put together they describe something that isn’t a chat interface anymore. It’s a harness that helps you achieve the final outcomes.

5. Open-source agents with frontier advisors: matching frontier performance through training and harness engineering – Fireworks AI

On LAB’s continuous mean-score metric, GLM 5.1 ranks highest among the open-source models we evaluated, at 0.8921 mean score putting it directly alongside frontier: Claude Opus 4.7 at 0.911, GPT-5.5 at 0.892. Kimi K2.6 (0.863) and DeepSeek V4 Pro (0.871) come in just below, both still clearly viable for production legal workloads.

On the LAB all-pass metric, the production-readiness measure, the closed frontier holds a small lead: Opus 4.7 at 14 / 100, GPT-5.5 at 11 / 100, GLM 5.1 at 12 / 100. That gap is where the rest of this post lives; the two interventions we describe below close most of it.

Cost is the headline. GLM 5.1 reaches its 0.8921 mean for $121 across the 100-task run. GPT-5.5’s nearly identical 0.892 costs $560. Claude Opus 4.7’s 0.911 mean and 14 / 100 all-pass runs $954, roughly 8× any open-source candidate.

“The customer ask is no longer ‘how do we get the smartest model on every query.’ It is ‘how do we get frontier-quality outputs on the queries that need them, and a model we control on the queries that don’t.’”…

…A single LLM call is the wrong unit of work for a legal task: reasoning chains run long, citation discipline is unforgiving, and under all-pass grading any missed criterion costs the entire task. To solve the problem, the team built a small, opinionated multi-agent harness with the open-source worker at its core. The configuration is straightforward: open weights at the core, orchestration the team can inspect and tune, and the frontier model invoked as a callable tool rather than a load-bearing dependency.

A frontier advisor as a callable tool. Treating Opus 4.7 as an advisor the worker can call on hard sub-tasks unlocked the cost savings on the harness. The GLM 5.1 worker does the bulk of the reasoning, drafting, and tool calls. There is no external router or orchestrator. The worker pulls the advisor in itself, wherever it needs a second opinion: retrieval, drafting, validation. Across the run, the advisor is invoked just 0.83 times per task on average — sparse-but-targeted use. That captures most of the quality lift of running the frontier end-to-end, at a small fraction of per-query cost, and it gives us a tunable cost/performance knob: dial advisor calls up on complex matters, down on routine ones.

The harness traces show a recognizable pattern. The worker’s turn count rises meaningfully versus a GLM 5.1-only run: the model reaches an uncertain step (typically during validation, occasionally mid-draft), calls the advisor for guidance or review, then resumes the trajectory with additional turns informed by the response. The advisor is doing less of the writing and more of the steering; the worker is doing the rest of the work it would not have known to do on its own. Sparse advisor calls, denser worker activity downstream of them.

The harness moves GLM 5.1 from 12 / 100 all-pass to 18 / 100 — higher than Claude Opus 4.7’s 14 / 100 — at $368 across the 100 tasks, roughly 39% of Opus’s $954 standalone cost (Figure 1). Against Opus the comparison is clean on both axes: −$586, +4 tasks all-pass. Against the GLM-only baseline, the advisor adds +6 tasks all-pass for +$246 — the cost increase is real, but it is the cost of beating Opus while still running the open-source worker at the core.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have no vested interest in any company mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Even More Of The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1)

A collection of quotes on artificial intelligence, or AI, from the management teams of US-listed technology companies in the 2026 Q1 earnings season.

Last month, I published More Of The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1). In it, I shared commentary in earnings conference calls for the first quarter of 2026, from the leaders of technology companies that I follow or have a vested interest in, on the topic of AI and how the technology could impact their industry and the business world writ large.

A few more technology companies I’m watching hosted earnings conference calls for 2026’s first quarter after I prepared the article. The leaders of these companies also had insights on AI that I think would be useful to share. This is an ongoing series. For the older commentary:

2023 Q1 – here and here
2023 Q2 – here and here
2023 Q3 – here and here
2023 Q4 – here and here
2024 Q1 – here and here
2024 Q2 – here and here
2024 Q3 – here and here
2024 Q4 – here, here, and here
2025 Q1 – here and here
2025 Q2 – here and here
2025 Q3 – here, here, and here
2025 Q4 – here, here, here, and here

With that, here are the latest commentary, in no particular order:

MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB)

MongoDB’s management sees 2 dimensions to the growth opportunity ahead, namely (1) organisations running core workloads on MongoDB, and (2) organisations moving agentic applications into production and choosing MongoDB as the core database; the 2 dimensions reinforce each other, as agentic applications are built on the data already residing within MongoDB

These conversations reinforce my conviction in both what we have built and the scale of the opportunity ahead. That opportunity has 2 dimensions. The first is core workloads where large customers run their most demanding, mission-critical workloads on MongoDB across on-prem, public clouds and hybrid environments. The second is AI, where enterprises, digital natives, frontier labs and AI natives alike are moving agentic applications into production and choosing MongoDB as the data platform to power them. As you heard from other software companies, these 2 opportunities are not distinct and, in fact, reinforce each other. Enterprises are starting to build agentic application on top of the very data already running on MongoDB.

MongoDB’s management is seeing accelerating AI adoption across the company’s base, with MCP (Model Context Protocol) server usage growing significantly; Voyage customers have doubled sequentially in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1); Vector Search adoption is far outpacing MongoDB’s overall growth; Voyage AI embeddings entered public review in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) and it allows developers to deliver semantic search in minutes; MongoDB has delivered 10-plus integrations with LangChain for Vector Search and more

AI adoption of MongoDB technologies across our customer base continues to accelerate. MCP server usage is growing significantly. Voyage customers have more than doubled quarter-over-quarter and Vector Search adoption is far outpacing overall company growth…

…This quarter, automated Voyage AI embeddings entered public preview, removing weeks of infrastructure work and enabling developers to deliver semantic search in minutes…

…LangChain is the world’s most widely adopted agent framework with over 1 billion downloads. We delivered 10-plus native integrations with LangChain for Vector Search, hybrid retrieval, semantic caching and agent memory.

Several frontier AI labs have selected MongoDB for mission-critical use cases; it’s still early days for MongoDB regarding the frontier AI labs’ workloads, but management is optimistic about expanding with the labs over time; AI-native companies are choosing MongoDB as the foundation for their data layer and the right choice for the data layer is important because it is a chokepoint on rapid scaling; it’s still early, but MongoDB’s management is starting to see enterprises shift from experimenting with AI to deploying AI in production; customers are choosing MongoDB as the memory layer for AI agents; MongoDB’s current results are driven by core workloads, but management is seeing growing moment from AI and agentic workloads, and MongoDB is ready for agentic deployment at scale whenever it happens; management is seeing the frontier AI labs realising that MongoDB is a great data platform, after trying out alternatives such as Postgress; the frontier AI labs are using MongoDB for multiple use cases

Turning to AI. This opportunity spans 3 distinct segments. First is the frontier labs. Several of these have selected MongoDB for use cases that are mission-critical to the deployment of their products among the most demanding data workloads in the industry. The depth of engagement varies by lab and by workload, and it is still early. But we feel great about the use cases we are winning and the ability to expand within these customers over time.

Second is AI-native companies. These customers are choosing MongoDB as the foundation for their AI products from day 1 because the data layer determines if you can scale to support rapid growth…

…Third is enterprise deploying AI. It is still early here, but we are beginning to see customers move from experimentation into production, building AI application on top of the operational data layer already running their business…

…Customers choosing MongoDB as the memory layer for AI agents themselves, agentic workloads need memory, that’s transactional, high velocity and able to retrieve the right context at the right time…

…Our results today are driven primarily by core workloads, but we are seeing real and growing momentum from AI and agentic workloads and believe MongoDB is purpose-built to be generational data platform for the agentic era…

…I’m seeing it’s still early, Matt, just to be clear, because the security governance, observability, there are many, many aspects to the agents and what kind of outcomes they deliver if it is agents at scale. But we feel that we are ready…

…[Question] In your prepared remarks, you mentioned frontier labs and it sounded like it was labs plural. I know you choose your words very carefully in the prepared remarks. I guess, did I pick that up correctly, that Mongo might now be working with multiple frontier labs?

[Answer] Yes, it is plural, and it was chosen carefully. Thank you for noticing… As we work with them, and as they have tried, whether it’s a Postgres alternative or others, they have come to realize that. And these are truly at the forefront of innovation in AI space or driving innovation that MongoDB is just a great data platform for some of the workloads. And the point around — of course, we cannot go into specific details with our agreements with them on type of use cases, but they vary and there are multiple use cases depending on the lab, that we’re working with them, and it’s early, but we will continue to expand.

MongoDB’s management sees the company as the generational data platform for agentic AI for 5 reasons, namely (1) MongoDB is architecturally built for AI because rigid relational data schemas are not suitable for agentic coding and LLMs , whereas they play well with unstructured document databases, (2) MongoDB is a high-performance data platform that allow agents to read and write in real time, (3) MongoDB delivers retrieval accuracy that agents require for customer-facing applications, (4) MongoDB can run on-premises, on the cloud, on a hybrid format and (5) MongoDB is embedded in the tools that developers and agents are using; management sees 3 legs of the stool for an agentic workload, namely, the harness, the LLM (large language model), and the data layer; customers of MongoDB appreciate the integration with LangChain because this means the data layer works really well with the harness layer; MongoDB’s database was not designed with AI workloads in mind, but it turns out that the architecture is perfectly suited for AI workloads

We are seeing real and growing momentum from AI and agentic workloads and believe MongoDB is purpose-built to be a generational data platform for the agentic era. Built natively into the platform, MongoDB’s innovations in the core database, embeddings and vector capabilities are moving us beyond a system of record to becoming the real-time system of intelligence. That shift comes down to 5 core strengths.

Number one, MongoDB is architecturally built for AI in 2 key ways. First, our flexible schema is uniquely suited to how applications get built in the agentic era. A growing share of software is now created through prompt-driven development, natural language iteration rather than line-by-line authorship. Whether the prompt comes from a developer or an agent, the shape of the application shifts with each prompt and a rigid relational schema becomes a tax on every iteration compromising agility. In addition, LLMs are the lingua franca for AI, and they speak in unstructured documented shape data, the exact form MongoDB was built around…

…Second, MongoDB is a transactional, high-performance data platform built for how agents actually work. Agents don’t behave like traditional applications. They read, write and act continuously across multiple simultaneous threads with a single agent spawning subagents that each make independent reads and writes in real time. Analytical systems built for off-line processing weren’t designed for this, and it shows in the performance when you run agents on top of them. MongoDB 8.3 released this month takes that step one further, delivering up to 45% more reads, 35% more writes and 15% more ACID transactions over 8.0 without changing a line of application code.

Third, MongoDB is a data platform that delivers the retrieval accuracy agents need to be trusted while optimizing tokens and cost in production. For internal tools, occasional errors may be tolerable. But for customer-facing application such as clinical decision support, fraud detection, financial transaction, insurance transaction, accuracy is nonnegotiable. MongoDB delivers best-in-class retrieval through integrated Vector Search and Voyage embeddings and reranker models, purpose built to surface the most relevant context when agent needs it…

…Fourth, MongoDB runs wherever the agent needs to run across all 3 major clouds, on-prem and in hybrid environments…

…Fifth, MongoDB is embedded in the tools, developers and agents actually use to build agentic applications…

…The simplicity when we talk to customers is 3 legs of the stool for any agentic workload is harness, LLM and data layer. And if they are being used as in LangChain, they have significant traction. Even when I talk to some of the large banks, whether it’s on-prem or in the cloud, there’s significant traction on the harness layer. And then they say, okay, what about the data layer and data layer, MongoDB being a choice for the data layer just makes sense. So we have done many integrations with them, and we are seeing this being played out at some of the large enterprise customers who say, hey, CJ, I’m glad that the data layer as in MongoDB really works with the harness layer. And of course, we can choose whichever LLM we want…

…I would say that architecture, it is almost — our founder calls it really well that. We would rather be lucky than smart. And when we created MongoDB — this is from Dwight. We didn’t have AI workloads in mind, but this architecture is perfectly suited for AI workloads.

MongoDB’s management recently announced MongoDB Checkpointer for LangSmith; MongoDB Checkpointer for LangSmith collapses a dedicated Postgres instance per agent into a single, shared Atlas cluster; the MongoDB Plugin and agent skills on Claude Code’s marketplace was recently launched

We recently announced that MongoDB Checkpointer for LangSmith deployment, which collapses what used to be a dedicated Postgres instance per agent into a single, shared Atlas cluster, state, memory and operational data unified in one place. Last month, we also launched the MongoDB Plugin and agent skills on the Claude Code marketplace, where we are already seeing strong early traction with developers.

Endor Labs, an AI-native application security platform, chose MongoDB Atlas as its default database; Endor Labs is using Atlas and Atlas Search for mission-critical security workflows; MongoDB Atlas is lowering Endor Labs’ operational friction

For example, Endor Labs is an AI-native application security platform, protecting over 7 million applications across both human written and AI-generated code. Endor selected Atlas as its default database to support 225% year-over-year revenue growth. Endor uses Atlas and Atlas Search to power its mission-critical security workflows, including AURI, its new security intelligence layer for AI coding agents, allowing the company to reduce operational friction and accelerate delivery of its differentiated offerings.

Food delivery company Zomato has 25 million monthly active users; Zomato is using MongoDB Atlas to sell its AI-native customer support platform, Nugget, to other enterprises; Zomato chose MongoDB Atlas over DynamoDB and DocumentDB for its aggregation pipeline, right consistency and flexible schema; MongoDB Atlas has lowered Nugget’s support cost by 55% and raised human agent productivity by 40%

Zomato is a great example. The world’s second largest food delivery company with 25 million monthly active users built Nugget, an AI-native customer support platform, they are now selling to other enterprises on Atlas. After evaluating DynamoDB and DocumentDB, they chose Atlas for its aggregation pipeline, right consistency and flexible schema. Nugget now orchestrates 15 million conversations per month on MongoDB’s platform, reducing support cost by 55% and improving human agent productivity by 40%.

Adobe’s Journey Agent is using MongoDB Atlas for long-term memory; Atlas Search and Atlas Vector Search enables Adobe to achieve sub-100 millisecond hybrid search for Journey Agent to act in real time

Adobe’s Journey Agent is a clear example. A composite multimodal AI agent that unifies Adobe’s marketing suite and orchestrates end-to-end customer journeys for their global B2C user base with MongoDB as the agent’s long-term memory and reasoning layer. Adobe leverages the MongoDB platform, Atlas Search and Atlas Vector Search together to power the sub-100 millisecond hybrid search the agent needs to act in real time.

The growth of AI startup ElevenLabs was being choked by its data layer, and made the decision to move to MongoDB recently; Postgres databases are choking the growth of AI native companies that have adopted it

I shared the example of somebody like ElevenLabs at .local London a few weeks ago, they were using first-party database for operational data. They were using another software for search. And basically, most of those product lines were really choking as ElevenLabs was growing significantly, right? They are now at a $500 million ARR. So when I asked the team technically, the engineer who made that decision saw that the growth of the company as in that AI native company, ElevenLabs was being held up by the data layer. And us having Search, Vector Search and operational data in a single platform, they are — they made the decision to move to MongoDB not too long ago. And 2 things they said that really resonated with me, Ryan. Number one, they are like, gee, we should have done this a lot sooner. Otherwise, we would have not to deal with all these outages and other things they dealt with the previous platform. And number two, now choosing MongoDB even though they have scaled significantly on their ARR as an AI native company gives them peace of mind.

I’m hearing them from other AI native companies who also chose maybe a Postgres or something and Postgres completely choked on the performance. So that just gives me a lot of confidence that if AI native company where AI is the business or agentic layer is the business and they feel that they can scale with MongoDB.

Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU)

Nu Holdings is seeing AI-driven productivity gains, with engineering through up 50% year-on-year in 2026 Q1, weekly token consumption up 10x from the start of 2026 to March, and testing cycles becoming 90% faster; nearly 100% of Nu Holdings’ employees are utilising AI tools

AI is driving productivity gains across the company, with engineering throughput up 50% YoY, weekly token consumption nearly ten times higher than at the start of the year, and testing cycles 90% faster…

…We’re reaching close to 100% utilization of AI tools among our employees across all functions of the organization.

Nu Holdings’ management expects to launch new AI-native experiences to customers in 2026; Nu Holdings’ AI Private Banker functionalities currently have 15 million active users

Customer journeys are being rebuilt end-to-end, with new AI-native experiences expected to reach customers during 2026…

… Nu’s AI Private Banker functionalities — financial insights, payments, credit advice, and debt resolution — are now serving more than 15 million monthly active users.

Nu Holdings’ proprietary foundation models, NuFormer, is already in production to make lending decisions for credit cards in Brazil and Mexico, and unsecured lending in Brazil; NuFormer can make a decision for each personal loan request in under a second

NuFormer, Nu’s proprietary set of foundation models, is in production today for credit card decisioning in Brazil and Mexico, and for unsecured lending in Brazil, with real-time AI valuation now pricing and approving every personal loan request individually based on its predicted NPV in under a second.

Nu Holdings’ management sees 3 structural advantages the company has in AI, namely, (1) proprietary data from 135 million customers, (2) a cloud-native technology stack that’s built internally, and (3) a strong talent base

Nu’s AI Transformation is anchored by three structural advantages: first-party data at scale from 135 million transacting customers generating one of the largest and most differentiated financial datasets in the world; a proprietary cloud-native technology stack with core banking systems built internally and data unified across the company; and a world-class talent base of ten thousand employees from more than 50 nationalities across six countries.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)

NVIDIA’s management capitalised on an inflection in inference demand by ramping its Blackwell systems; NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue again had very strong growth in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), driven by strong demand for Blackwell systems; the Blackwell systems are the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA’s history; management sees Blackwell systems as having the lowest token generation cost for inference; every hyperscaler, cloud provider, and model maker is using Blackwell; OpenAI’s latest GPT-5.5 model was trained with and is being served by Blackwell systems; Microsoft’s latest largescale AI data center, Fairwater, is powered by Blackwell GPUs; Amazon’s AWS will be adding more than 1 million Blackwell and Rubin (the next generation GPU) GPUs; Google Cloud will be offering Blackwell systems; Blackwell Ultra delivered the highest throughput in MLPerf inference results; management has improved the GB300 Blackwell system’s throughput by 2.7x and cost by 60% in just 6 months; management has line of sight to $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue for 2025-2027

We capitalized on the inflection in inference demand by ramping Blackwell systems across our diverse end customer base. from hyperscalers to model makers to AI cloud providers and sovereign customers. In Q1, we also allocated capital effectively across R&D, investments in our ecosystem and share repurchases…

…Data Center revenue of $75 billion was up 92% year-over-year and 21% sequentially, driven by sustained strength in our Blackwell architecture and demand for GB300 NVL72 was particularly strong with frontier model builders and hyperscalers each having cumulatively deployed hundreds and thousands of Blackwell GPUs, marking the fastest product ramp in our company’s history. Grace Blackwell is the fastest training system as well as the lowest token generation cost at inference…

…Our Blackwell architecture is everywhere, adopted and deployed by every major hyperscaler, every cloud provider and every major model maker. Last month, we celebrated OpenAI’s launch of GPT-5.5, codesigned for, trained with, and served on Blackwell, currently positioned at the top of artificial analysis leaderboards. Microsoft’s Fairwater, the world’s most powerful AI data center is now live, ahead of schedule, powered by hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs. Starting this year, AWS will add more than 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs and are collaborating on Spectrum Networking. At Google, Blackwell will be offered to customers in the cloud, including confidential computing capability, a new foundation for secure high-performance AI…

…MLPerf inference results are in, and once again, we swept every benchmark as Blackwell Ultra delivered the highest throughput across the broad set of models and deployment scenarios. Full stack innovations drove the 2.7x increase in throughput and a 60% reduction in the cost per token on GB300 compared to just 6 months ago…

…We are continuing to work vigorously on our supply chain ecosystem to address the incredible demand we see ahead of us, giving us full confidence in the $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue we foresee from 2025 through calendar 2027.

NVIDIA’s ethernet networking product, Spectrum X, is now larger than all ethernet peers combined; NVIDIA’s other networking product, Infiniband, grew 4x year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), driven by XDR technology

Spectrum-X, our end-to-end Ethernet platform purpose-built for AI, is now larger than all Ethernet network peers combined. InfiniBand has also had a very strong quarter, growing more than 4x year-over-year, driven by deployments of our next-generation XDR technology.

Half of NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue comes from hyperscalers, and the other half comes from ACIE (AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise) customers, including sovereigns; ACIE customers grew 31% sequentially in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), with AI Cloud revenue tripling year-on-year; the number of partner data centers in the AI Cloud business exceeding 10 megawatts is now over 80, up nearly 100% year-on-year; Sovereign revenue was up 80% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1); NVIDIA’s AI systems are now in nearly 40 countries

Back to our Data Center results. Hyperscale revenue of $38 billion was approximately 50% of Data Center revenue and increased 12% quarter-over-quarter. ACIE revenue was $37 billion and grew 31% quarter-over-quarter, including AI cloud revenue that more than tripled year-over-year. Our customers have enabled rapid stand-up of AI compute capacity. The number of partner data centers exceeding 10 megawatts has nearly doubled in just 1 year, now surpassing 80 sites. Sovereign revenue increased more than 80% year-over-year. NVIDIA AI infrastructure is now deployed across nearly 40 countries, representing $50 trillion in GDP.

NVIDIA’s management is seeing rising prices for renting the company’s previous Hopper and Ampere generations of GPUs

The value of NVIDIA AI infrastructure is rising. The price of renting an H100 has risen 20% year-to-date, while A100 cloud pricing is up nearly 15%. Benefiting from the versatility of our platform and continuous performance enhancements enhanced by our software stack, customers are generating profitable revenue beyond the depreciable life of their GPUs.

NVIDIA’s management is seeing the largest hyperscale workloads, across search, advertising, recommendation systems, and content understanding, continue to transition from CPUs to GPUs

First, from search and advertising to recommender systems and content understanding, the largest hyperscale workloads continue to transition from CPU to GPU-based accelerating computing.

NVIDIA’s management is seeing an inflection in the adoption of AI-native products and services, led by a transition to agentic AI; management is seeing incredible momentum with the AI model builders, with OpenAI’s Codex being a standout; there are a few hundred thousand AI agents today, but management sees a future world with billions of agents and they will all be using tools; management sees AI agents spinning off sub-agents, and each spin requires inference; management sees agents as having lower patience than humans

The adoption of products and services native to AI is inflecting. Since the advent of ChatGPT, we have witnessed mainstream AI transition from one-shot inference to reasoning and to now agentic…

…Growth in the model layer, particularly at Anthropic and OpenAI has been incredible with momentum continuing to accelerate, including breakout growth in OpenAI’s Codex since the launch of GPT-5.5…

…My sense is that the world is going to have billions of agents. Not today, I mean, we’re going to grow into it, but we’ll have billions of agents. And those billions of agents will all use tools. And those tools can be like PCs, just like us humans using PCs today. In the future, you’ll have an agent using PC and so if you kind of think along the lines of in the future, you pick your favorite number of agents at the moment. At the moment, call it, a few hundred thousand, but in the future, call it, eventually a few billion…

…Every one of those agents are going to spin off subagents. And every time they spin these off, you’re going to need to do inference…

…Agents use these tools and have — they have lower patience and tolerance than humans, and they want things to happen quickly.

NVIDIA’s management sees a $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity by the end of 2029, driven by hyperscalers’ forecasted capex of over $1 trillion in 2027; management expects NVIDIA’s business to be growing faster than the growth in the hyperscalers’ capex; management expects hyperscalers’ capex to continue growing from here, because in the age of AI, compute equates to revenue, unlike in the SaaS (software-as-a-service) era

With analysts now forecasting hyperscale CapEx to exceed $1 trillion in 2027 and Agentic AI beginning to proliferate all industries, AI infrastructure spending is on track to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by the end of this decade…

…We should be growing faster than hyperscale CapEx. And the reason for that is illustrated by the segmentation that I just described. Our data center business has 2 large parts. It has more parts than that, but we combined it into 2 large parts for simplicity’s sake…

…The hyperscale CapEx that you were just talking about. And there are $1 trillion this year. I have every expectation it is going to grow from here for fundamentally good reasons. This is the way computing is going to work in the future. And if they don’t have the compute, they won’t have the revenues. It is very clear, compute is revenues, compute is profit. And so the world is changing. Software didn’t use to use — SaaS didn’t use to use as much compute, but AI requires a tremendous amount of compute.

NVIDIA has deepened its collaboration with Anthropic and will serve Anthropic’s AI compute needs through multiple cloud providers; management sees NVIDIA’s share of frontier AI models growing significantly; NVIDIA is the only platform that runs every frontier AI model

We have deepened our collaboration with Anthropic and are delighted to be a strategic partner to expand their compute capacity. We will support the company’s growth trajectory through AWS, Azure, CoreWeave, SpaceXAI and more. Now with the addition of Anthoropic too, OpenAI, Gemini, SpaceXAI, Meta MSL, Microsoft AI, TML, Reflection, Perplexity, Cursor, and other major frontier labs already building on NVIDIA. Our share of frontier AI models will grow significantly…

…NVIDIA is the only platform that runs every Frontier AI model.

NVIDIA’s management thinks the right metric to analyse the economics of NVIDIA’s GPUs is not the price paid, but the lifetime cost of the GPU in producing intelligence

Customers do not buy GPUs. They build AI factories and the right economic metric is not the purchase price of the GPU. It is the lifetime cost of an AI factory producing intelligence. Token per watt, tokens per dollar, uptime, utilization, time to production, software durability and asset life. NVIDIA excels at all of them.

NVIDIA’s management sees agentic AI as a growth opportunity for CPUs; NVIDIA’s Vera CPU can deliver 1.5x faster performance per core, 2x performance per watt, and 4x density per rack compared to x86-based CPUs; CPUs are a market NVIDIA has never addressed prior to Vera; management sees a total addressable market of $200 billion for CPUs in agentic AI; management has visibility to $20 billion in total CPU revenue in 2026 (FY2027); management sees 4 different use cases for Vera, which are Vera with the Rubin GPUs, Vera as a standalone CPU, Vera with CX-9 for storage, and Vera with CX-9 for security; the $200 billion CPU addressable market for Vera is specifically for Vera as a standalone CPU; management sees the Vera CPU as being supply constrained throughout the life of a Vera Rubin; an AI agent is a harness around an AI model, and this harness runs on a CPU, and the tools the harness utilises also runs on a CPU; Vera was designed to be an agentic CPU; traditional CPUs have many cores that are rentable, but agentic CPUs are designed to generate and process tokens and this is a strength of the Vera CPU; management sees the Vera CPU as the second largest driver of NVIDIA’s revenue beyond the $1 trillion in revenue-visibility management has for Rubin and Blackwell

Agentic AI and reinforcement learning represents new growth opportunities for CPUs. Building on the success of our Grace CPU, Vera is arriving just in time to meet this inflection. Built on custom ARM cores and codesigned end-to-end with Rubin GPUs and NVLink, Vera will deliver up to 1.5x faster performance per core, 2x performance per watt and 4x density per rack compared to x86-based alternatives. Vera CPU opens a brand-new $200 billion TAM for NVIDIA, a market we have never addressed before, and every major hyperscale and system maker is partnering with us to get it deployed. We have visibility to nearly $20 billion in total CPU revenue this year, setting us up to become the world’s leading CPU supplier…

…4 ways — let me just start with the one that you already know. The first way is Vera Rubin. And we’ll sell millions of Rubins, and every 2 of them is connected to a Vera. And of course, we price those 2 and they’re properly priced. And so that’s #1 use case. The second use case is Vera standalone CPU. The third is Vera with CX-9 and the software stack for storage. And then Vera in a — with CX-9 with a software stack for security and compute isolation and confidential computing. Okay, so each one of those use cases is built on Vera. And my sense is that we’ll be supply constrained throughout the entire life of Vera Rubin. There are 4 different use cases of it. And — but anyhow, the answer to your question is — of the $20 billion is a stand-alone…

…An agent is essentially what people call a harness. The agent has a harness that does the — and the harness could be OpenClaw, it could be Hermes, code — Claude Code is essentially a harness around Claude around the Opus model. OpenAI’s Codex is a harness around the GPT-5.5 model. And so these are harnesses. And these harnesses provide for things like IO, orchestration, memory management, tool use connected to tools, for example, browsers and things like that, C compilers, python compilers. And so the harness runs on CPU. And the tool use runs on CPUs. So for example, if the AI were to do a search or do a browser, use a browser that would run on the CPU…

…Vera was designed to be an agentic CPU. The CPUs of the past were designed to have many cores so that it could be easily rentable. People rented cores. Well, agents don’t rent cores. They just want the work to be done fast. The economics of the past was dollars per core. That’s the economics of cloud computing of the past. The economics of the AI of the future is tokens per dollar or dollars per token. And so what we need to do in the future is to generate tokens, process tokens as fast as possible, and that’s what Vera does incredibly well…

…[Question] Back at GTC, I believe you discussed $1 trillion visibility into both your Rubin and Blackwell platform revenue. But I believe that excluded things like LPX, Rubin, CPX and the Vera CPU racks. Can you maybe give us a sense about whether the Vera CPUs are going to be the biggest source of upside above and beyond that $1 trillion?

[Answer] In terms of incremental above the $1 trillion, I would say, one, the continued growing of share of the Frontier AI models. I’m expecting to grow more share. And so I’m expecting that to grow. Number two, we didn’t include any Vera CPU, stand-alone CPU in that number. And so I expect that to be the second largest. The TAM is, of course, quite large in agentic systems, and all of our customers are quite excited about Vera and we’re going to sell a whole bunch of Veras. And then third would be LPX, because as I explained earlier, LPX is designed as a — because of its SRAM architecture, it has the benefit of very low latency and very, very high interactivity, but it’s — also its throughput, its context processing ability is also quite limited.

NVIDIA’s next-generation GPU system, the Vera Rubin, is on track for shipment in 2026 Q3 (FY2027 Q3); Vera Rubin can deliver 35x higher inference throughput and 10x greater AI factory revenue compared to Blackwell systems; Google Cloud will be supporting 960,000 Rubin GPUs across multiple sites for customers; management thinks every single frontier AI model company will be adopting Vera Rubin once it’s launched, and that Vera Rubin will be even more successful than Blackwell even though they are unsure if Vere Rubin will ramp as quickly as Blackwell

We are on track to commence production shipments of Vera Rubin in the second half of this year starting in Q3. By integrating 7 purpose-built chips across 5 accelerated racks, Vera Rubin will deliver up to 35x higher inference throughput and up to 10x greater AI factory revenue compared with Blackwell. As an early adopter, Google’s A5X bare metal instances, which can support up to 960,000 Rubin GPUs across multiple sites can enable customers to run their largest AI workloads on NVIDIA’s optimized infrastructure…

…Every single frontier model company will jump on Vera Rubin from the get-go, and that wasn’t true before on Blackwell. And so Vera Rubin is off to a tremendous start and will surely be more successful than even Grace Blackwell…

…[Question] You mentioned GB300 is sort of the fastest ramp in the company’s history. How should we think about Vera Rubin against this benchmark. It’s obviously a new architecture at the silicon level, but in similar rack. Does that mean we should expect a similar slope to the Vera Rubin ramp as the GB300?

[Answer] It’s hard to say at this point what will be a faster ramp. But again, we have demand already planned, we’ve got POs. We’ve got almost all of our major customers ready to go, and these are very complex systems that we need to put together. So I think it’s just about the timing that it’s going to take for us to get that into market. Nothing else other than getting from production of all of the different systems that we have ready for order.

NVIDIA is yet to generate revenue from China and management does not know if the company’s AI chips will ever be allowed into China

While the U.S. government has approved licenses for H200 to be shipped to China-based customers, we have yet to generate any revenue, and we are uncertain whether any imports will be allowed into the country.

NVIDIA’s Physical AI revenue has exceeded $9 billion in revenue in the last 12 months; NVIDIA will power Uber’s robotaxi fleet in 30 cities and 4 continents by 2028; companies building industrial, surgical, and humanoid robotics are using NVIDIA’s technology; management thinks physical AI encompasses industries that have been untouched by IT (information technology) for the past 30 years, but they will soon be impacted by AI

Our physical AI continues to gain momentum, exceeding $9 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. Our partnership with Uber will power the robotaxi fleet across nearly 30 cities and 4 continents by 2028. And in robotics, leading companies across a range of industrial, surgical and humanoid applications are building on NVIDIA’s technology to develop and deploy at scale…

…When I talk about physical AI, and I talk about how the rest of the $100 trillion industry that has not been affected by — impacted by IT in the last 30 years. It’s about to be impacted by AI.

NVIDIA has increased inventory purchase commitments to $145 billion; NVIDIA is facing supply challenges

In Q1, we increased total supply, inclusive of inventory purchase commitments and prepaid to $145 billion. While we are not immune to supply challenges, we remain confident in our ability to support the growth opportunity ahead with our intense focus, scale and long-standing partnerships with critical suppliers continuing to serve us well.

NVIDIA’s management thinks every base station in the future would be an AI-powered radio network

In the future, every single base station, every single radio network would become an AI-powered radio network.

Frontier AI companies are growing revenues in 1 month what older SaaS companies took a decade to achieve

Frontier AI companies, both Anthropic and OpenAI growing at an incredible pace. The fact that they can grow within 1 month, what some of the SaaS companies would have taken a decade to grow tells you something.

NVIDIA’s management thinks industrial AI will likely not be delivered via the cloud; the hyperscalers were happy to adopt AI first because they focused mostly on consumer applications where the stakes are lower but for industrial applications, AI needs to be really capable, safe, and productive before adoption can happen; right now, industrial AI has developed slower than consumer AI, but management thinks industrial AI will be even larger than consumer AI in the future

Many industrial companies, there’s no choice, but to put the computer where the context is, where the action is, you can’t put that in the cloud. It has to respond reliably, quickly every single time, can’t imagine a chip plant, a chip fab being connected to a cloud service provider, doesn’t make any sense…

…Hyperscale developed AI first for a lot of reasons. They have great computer science. They have excellent data center capability. And they also focus largely on consumer applications, which, if not perfect, is not the end of the world. It enhances the service — so long as it enhances the service. And so for many of the other applications, industrial applications, enterprise applications, until the AI is very capable and does really productive work and does it safely, and it could do it in a way that can actually generate impact and income, it doesn’t really get used. And so you expect the second category to develop slower than hyperscale, and you could see that in the numbers. However, long term, if you look at industrial and enterprise, clearly, that’s where future economics is going to be because it represents some $50 trillion, $80 trillion of the world’s economy. And so — and it’s going to be larger than that because of AI.

NVIDIA’s management thinks sovereign AI clouds will not want to use custom or semi-custom AI chips

The sovereign AI clouds. And so there’s a whole category of data centers that semi-custom chips just don’t apply because these data centers want to buy systems, they want to operate systems, they don’t want to design, they don’t want to build it themselves.

NVIDIA’s management sees the company taking market share in inference really quickly partly because of its new partnership with Anthropic; management thinks most of the inference taking place in AI data centers outside of the hyperscalers will be on NVIDIA

we are growing share in inference, and we’re growing share in inference very, very quickly. And the reason for that is this year, the number of frontier model companies grew. And so there’s Cursor and Perplexity and there’s some new model companies, TML and Reflection and the list goes on. And so the number of frontier model companies has grown, and we added Anthropic to our partnership this year. They’re expanding incredibly fast. We’ve partnered with them to secure computing capacity across Azure, AWS, CoreWeave, I forget who else we’ve already announced, but there’s a whole list of others that we are bringing online for them. And so the amount of capacity that we’re going to bring online for Anthropic this year and next year is going to be quite significant, very significant. And so we’re growing and our coverage of Anthropic has been largely 0 until just recently. And so we’re gaining share tremendously fast in inference…

…Everything that I’ve just explained in the inference question is really focused on hyperscale. Remember, there’s a whole second category of AI data centers that we serve almost uniquely. Now this segment is very fragmented. It requires a fairly integrated — a really well-integrated platform solution and a very large go-to-market. And that segment, all of the inference, 100% of that — the vast majority of that is NVIDIA.

NVIDIA’s management sees the LPX server rack as a specialty rack designed for low latency and high token rate but with low throughput

The LPX is designed for a low latency and high token rate. But its throughput is low. Its throughput is low. Its model size capacity is low. And its context processing, its ability to absorb a lot of context, for example, for software coding, for agentic workloads, its ability to absorb a great deal of context is lower. And so the challenge is simply, and I’ve explained before that the use case for LPX is not broad. It’s intended for somebody who has a fairly large portfolio of different types of token services. And for the high token rate, maybe these services are quite premium and the number of customers is not significant, but the token rate is very high.

Okta (NASDAQ: OKTA)

Okta’s management sees each AI agent in an organization as a new identity; AI agents are a rapidly-growing identity category, but they are the least governed; Okta brings agents under control by treating them as identities that can be managed and governed by existing identity management systems; management thinks that there will be more AI agents than humans over time, so the identity becomes increasingly important; all of Okta’s top 100 customers are deploying AI agents, but they are mostly doing it in a haphazard way in terms of security; management is seeing companies start to realise the importance of security for AI agents; management believes that companies will be getting their agentic capabilities from many different platforms; 90% of Okta’s customers have agents in production, but only 22% are confident in the governance of the agents

The future of technology is agentic. For Okta,, this represents a tremendous opportunity and an even greater responsibility. Every agent inside an enterprise is a new identity. Today, AI agents are the fastest-growing identity in the enterprise but also the least governed. Okta helps bring agents under control by treating them as first-class identities that can be managed and governed by their existing identity management system. We believe, over time, most large enterprises will have more agentic identities than human ones. This shift broadens the attack surface because every agent comes with credentials privileges, and the ability to act on a user’s behalf. In turn, this raises the strategic value of the identity layer because governing autonomous systems requires the kind of control, audit, continuous intent-driven authorization and real-time enforcement only an identity platform can deliver…

…I’ve spent the last 6 months, I’m on this goal to talk to in-person face-to-face with our top 100 customers, about 75 customers in. And when you mix that with a bunch of other conversations, here’s what’s going on, everyone is deploying agents in some way, shape or form. But they’re really just starting to think about and put in programs in place to lay out the rails of governed managed adoption. So a concrete example is you’ll have a development team that is using cloud code, but it’s connected to GitHub and their JIRA system with static tokens in the local developer box. So that company is viewing agents, but they’ve really done it in a haphazard nonsecure way. And what’s happening now is they’re figuring out those rails. They’re figuring out how they’re going to have secure connections, have a system to monitor where all the agents are, have the ability to support it for multiple platforms…

… I think what I’m seeing is that Boards and CEOs are saying, we know this agentic thing is real. We’ve got to put the guardrails in place for that. and we know that security is real, and we’re going to spend money on that. And it’s, the reality of it, Brian, is that it’s the fundamentals. It’s identity. 80% of breaches are go through identity. And you know you have to patch your systems. You know you have to have a good multilayered defense and Zero Trust so you can defend for multiple ways…

…there’s a few fundamental truth right that are going to play out. I think, one is that they’re going to get agentic capabilities from many, many companies. They’re going to have different platforms. They’re going to have hyperscaler platforms. They’re going to have Foundation model platforms. They’re going to have open source platforms. They’re also going to get agentic capability from apps. Salesforce is going to have there. Workday is going to have their ServiceNow is on and on…

…Customers have a problem today. They have a problem today where over 90% of them have agents in production, and only 22% of them are confident to have them governed.

Okta’s management sees 3 advantages the company has in securing AI agents, namely, (1) distribution, where Okta can extend its identity system to AI agents, (2) product breadth, where Okta is the only vendor that address both sides of the agent security problem, and (3) neutrality, where Okta allows customers to choose whichever cloud provider and agentic platform they want; Okta’s 3 advantages in securing AI agents are mutually reinforcing; Okta as a neutral identity layer, can help customers avoid vendor lock-in for agentic capabilities

To help our customers confidently secure this shift, we’re building on 3 unique advantages, each with powerful network effects: distribution, product breadth and neutrality…

…In the agentic era, identity becomes even more foundational. When a customer secures their agents with Okta, they are not taking on a new platform; they are extending the trusted foundation they already rely on with Okta. We’ve already seen how our customers benefit from this expansion in other parts of our business. Customers are finding value in Okta’s unified identity system as Okta in governance was once again the leading contributor among our new products. This distribution flywheel is evident in our results…

… Our second unique advantage is product breadth. We are the only vendor with solutions that address both sides of the agent security problem…

… The third unique advantage is neutrality, which is more important than ever. The AI landscape is opting rapidly. Customers need an identity solution that frees them to choose whatever technology serves their business best without fear of vendor lock-in. As the leading independent and neutral identity platform, Okta gives organizations the flexibility to do exactly that. In the same way, enterprises run workloads across multiple clouds, they are deploying agents across various platforms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce and a growing set of open source frameworks. Managing and securing an autonomous workforce requires a neutral, independent identity layer that others can’t provide. In practice, cloud providers, model providers and agent platforms are partnering with Okta to securely manage agent identities as they continue to proliferate across the enterprise…

…These 3 advantages are unique and mutually reinforcing. The more organizations use Okta to secure their agents, the more identity signals flow into our platform and the stronger our governance and detection becomes, and our neutrality allows us to secure current and future agent frameworks for customers, allowing Okta to capture more of the addressable market…

… I think, one is that they’re going to get agentic capabilities from many, many companies. They’re going to have different platforms. They’re going to have hyperscaler platforms. They’re going to have Foundation model platforms. They’re going to have open source platforms. They’re also going to get agentic capability from apps. Salesforce is going to have there. Workday is going to have their ServiceNow is on and on. Everything is going to be agentic — have agentic capabilities. But we know they’re going to have a directory of these things or roster everything, a policy layer and they’re going to have to make sure they can connect to things. And so we’re seeing our customers — it’s a kind of a no-regrets move to pick this independent and neutral identity layer that can solve those fundamental problems without locking them in

Okta has two product categories to address both sides of the agent security problem; Okta for AI Agents became generally available in April 2026 and provides enterprises with centralised visibility into agents with identity governance capabilities; Auth0 for AI Agents is for developers building AI agents and it helps developers ship secure agents inside their products; Okta had strong pipeline generation in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), driven partly by Okta for AI Agents and Auth0 for AI Agents; the opportunity for Okta for AI Agents is not limited to existing workforce customers, and it extends to every enterprise with a multi-platform AI strategy; Okta for AI Agents is integrated with ServiceNow and Amazon Bedrock; there is a lot of interest in Okta for AI Agents and Auth0 for AI Agents, but they are still early and are currently not contributing materially to the business; management believes Okta for AI Agents and Auth0 for AI Agents will become really big products; Okta can give agents specific access to different apps based on access management; the pipeline for Okta’s agentic products is bigger than anything management has ever seen; the pipeline for Okta for AI Agents is bigger than that for Auth0 for AI agents because companies are further along with deploying internal agents than building agents into products; management is already starting to see some pull-through of demand for Okta’s non-AI products because of Okta for AI Agents

Okta for AI agents, which became generally available last month, gives enterprises a single control plane to discover, govern and manage agents across their organization. It is the first and best implementation of the blueprint for the secure agentic enterprise, an industry framework for bringing agents under control by answering the three questions that have dominated my customer conversations over the past several months. Where are my agents, what can they connect to and what can they do? Enterprises need to maintain visibility and control over their sprawl of agents, ensuring they have governed identities, consistent access policies and ways to shut them down to secure every agent into end. Okta provides customers with centralized visibility into agents with identity governance capabilities, including ownership assignment and life cycle management while giving IT and security teams, critical security controls to deactivate rogue agents. For developers building AI agents, Auth0 for AI agents provides the identity foundation to ship secure agents inside their products. Auth0 for AI agents secures agents, APIs and users effortlessly for B2B, B2C and internal apps, all backed by the enterprise grade Auth they already trust. In tangible terms, pipe generation in Q1 was strong, driven in part by these 2 new products…

…Okta is the only modern identity platform purpose-built to sit above the agent ecosystem, and it federates with whatever identity provider a customer runs. That means the opportunity for Okta for AI agents is not limited to our existing workforce customers. It extends to every enterprise with a multi-platform AI strategy…

…We’ve entered into a partnership with ServiceNow that integrates their AI control tower product with Okta for AI agents…

…Okta for AI agents now integrates with Amazon Bedrock Agent core to provide customers with identity governance capabilities for their agents…

…They’re figuring out how they’re going to have secure connections, have a system to monitor where all the agents are, have the ability to support it for multiple platforms. And that’s why you’re seeing the record interest and the record pipeline for what we do with Okta for AI agents and Auth0 for AI agents. The reality is of these products, it’s still early. They’re not materially contributing to the business in Q1. In fact, we’re still being prudent in our guide. They’re not even — they’re a little bit in the guide, but not significant in the guide but it’s going to be big…

…So it’s very natural to say, who can really manage these connections and give me these governed rails for all these secure connections, where my agents are, what they’re doing, what can they do? It’s a natural fit for us. So I think as they build out this infrastructure, we’re in this really great position to have to be a super, super meaningful part of the business and TAM over the next several quarters and several years…

…We tell you who your agents are. There’s a directory of agents. We can scan multiple platforms and multiple systems and give you that source of truth of where your agents are and we can help you set a policy on what they can connect to. Agents can this from teams and they can read this from Slack, and they can read this information from Snowflake and they can you read this from GitHub. So it’s like a single sign-on or access management…

…[Question] You mentioned a building pipeline on AI. I wonder if you might hope with the size of this maybe relative to other products in the past

[Answer] The pipeline is bigger than anything we’ve ever seen…

…[Question] The difference between AI for agents in Auth0 versus Okta, the 2 different platforms. Maybe just help us appreciate the technology aspect of that? And is there like a big difference in size of pipeline between the 2?

[Answer] They’re both healthy, the Okta pipeline is bigger. And I think that’s because it’s a little bit of a — I think the companies that are figuring out how to manage and deploy internal agents are further along than people building agents into their products and into their websites…

…We’re seeing that the products we’ve offered for AI agents in this blueprint, this vision we have for the industry and agents is raising the strategic level of conversations, which is pulling in other products and helping us displace legacy faster and sell more of our existing products and our newer products into new customers in the base than we would be otherwise. I say that because to make it clear that the AI agent products are still, is still immaterial, the contribution with Okta for agents going GA in April. They had a good quarter, but it’s still a small base. So the pull-through is real already though.

Okta’s management believes that no single company can address the agentic security market; Okta has entered into partnerships with AI leaders ranging from ISVs (independent software vendors) to AI vendors and hyperscalers; the ISVs include ServiceNow, while the AI vendors include Anthropic and OpenAI; Okta is partnering with Anthropic for its Project Glasswing cybersecurity initiative

Neutrality becomes even more important when it comes to technology partnerships and integrations, like the traditional cybersecurity landscape, no single company can address the agentic security market alone. That’s why we’ve partnered with AI leaders from ISVs to hyperscalers to frontier AI vendors, and I’d like to highlight a few of those partnerships today. We’ve entered into a partnership with ServiceNow that integrates their AI control tower product with Okta for AI agents. Our partnership with Google brings centralized identity guidance and access control to Google’s agent gateway. Okta for AI agents now integrates with Amazon Bedrock Agent core to provide customers with identity governance capabilities for their agents. We were a launch partner for OpenAI’s release of GPT 5.5 trusted access for cyber. And finally, we’re collaborating with Anthropic in a number of ways to testing Anthropic’s preview model as part of Project Glasswing to a new integration between Okta Identity Security Posture Management and the Cloud compliance API.

Okta’s management is pricing agentic products as an increase to a user’s monthly price because (1) management is seeing customers want to consume agentic products via this pricing model, and (2) agents are currently mostly deployed on behalf of users; management thinks pricing models for agentic products will evolve over time and the software industry is still figuring it out; management is seeing that the average deal size for AI-specific deals is much larger than the average deal size for other types of deals; Okta does not have unlimited-consumption AI deals

And so the way we’ve done pricing for our products is exactly in line with how our products have been priced in the past. They’re priced on, it’s an uplift to a named user or it’s an uplift to a monthly active user. Now you might say, “Hey, Todd, but agentic — agents are this new thing and why are you pricing them on an active user or a named user price?” And that’s for two reasons. One reason is that’s the way customers want to consume it right now. And two, the majority of concrete use cases in the world right now for agents, it’s on behalf of the user. It’s an agent working on behalf of a software developer. It’s an agent working on behalf of a support rep. It’s an agent working on behalf of someone in accounting. So it’s very natural how they want to buy it and how they’re actually being used. So it’s an uplift on a named user, and it’s uplift on an active user.

Now we fully understand that, that’s going to evolve. And there will be more autonomous agents that have to be priced not by user base or not an extensive user. They have to be the unit has to be the number of agents. It’s a little bit tricky because it’s very hard to define the number of agents because some person might say, “Oh, I have 1,000 agents, but it’s really kind of 1,000 copies of the same agent or 1,000 instances of the same agent. In other cases, it might be literally 1 instance of an agent acting for many, many different use cases. So the industry is kind of figuring that out, and we’ll figure that over time how to monetize and price that now…

…The average deal size for these AI-specific deals is significantly larger than the average deal size for the rest of the company…

…[Question] You guys are doing deals where basically the contract is for an unlimited number of agents. The good thing is in those deals, I’m hearing that the spend is very, very high relative to your existing spend and other products. But the risk there is what if the customer doesn’t get to unlimited agents, so there’s downside renewal or other things that could happen. So how are you approaching that dynamic with customers in factoring in the contracts?

[Answer] There’s no unlimited. If there is unlimited, it’s time bound. So there have been some deals where we’ve done like a year, and then it’s like we’re going to figure out after a year what the — how the use case really unfolded and how to snap it back to the kind of normal pricing model. But there’s no — it’s not unlimited in the sense of time and volume.

Okta’s management is seeing the leaders of AI companies being worried about the durability of their revenues

If you look at the — particularly the AI landscape, I was having dinner with a bunch of CEOs of companies, different sizes, and everyone is super worried about their spend in their products and their revenue in their products being not durable because it’s token spend, and they worry about the products being used and then and maybe someone is going to look at the spin and stop spin the token spend

Okta’s governance-related product portfolio is still performing well; Okta’s privileged access product is not as mature as the governance portfolio

We’re very excited about our AI products. But governance continues to be a strength for us. We talked over the past couple of quarters about how governance has evolved from being primarily a cross-sell add-on product to also now being a land product. And we are seeing sizable land opportunities, starting with governance at some companies that are displacing systems that they’ve had in place. So we’re very excited about the enterprise readiness and robustness of our governance product and the rural deployments…

…Privileged access is further behind governance on that maturity curve. It came to market a little bit later. We’re continuing to invest heavily in it and we did an acquisition back Q3 at Axis to add capabilities to that. And we’re continuing to invest in that breadth of portfolio, kind of rounding out the identity security fabric in addition to all the momentum that we’re seeing with our great success in the AI product.

ServiceNow wanted kill switches for rogue AI agents; Okta can help sever connections and access that any rogue AI agent has

ServiceNow is, as you mentioned, super interesting. They are — their product strategy is they want to be the control tower for all AI agents. And what is, what they were really interested in was this kill-switches capability. When agents go awry and agents aren’t following the policy, how do you shut them down, and that can mean a lot of different things. That can mean actually stopping the running of the agent that can mean quarantining the agent at a network level, there’s many different strategies. The one thing we do really well and that they wanted from us is the ability to sever the connections, the access tokens, the actual logical connection at the authorization layer to the back-end resources, and we’re really good at that. That’s kind of the core of our product. What can these things connect to, what can they do.

Okta’s management thinks that cybersecurity in the future will take multiple companies to secure, and the large AI model providers cannot do it by themselves

I think in terms of the model providers, how they’re going to play in the broader cyber ecosystem, it’s going to take a village. I think we’ve seen that in cyber forever. I think consolidation in cyber never seems to work. All seems to be — gets to a certain point and then new threats emerge, and the companies that are trying to consolidate cyber have such a hard time integrating amongst themselves. It kind of fractures a part. And I think that will continue. I think cyber in the agentic world is going to take a village, and we’re going to have to make sure it’s integrated together and make sure we have layered defenses. And that’s why I think it’s really healthy to be coming into this conversation with this open mindset of, hey, we have our lane, we’re going to try to provide the best identity foundation in the world and then connect around that in a standard way that helps customers get great outcomes.

The cost of inference is real at Okta, and management thinks more companies using AI models will be scrutinising their inference costs in the near future; management is optimistic that Okta can manage inference costs and drive positive ROI (return on investment)

The cost thing you’re talking about is real, the inference costs and the AI tooling and what it’s driving in terms of expenses. And I think you’re going to see at Okta, and then over the whole industry over the next 6 to 12 months, you’re going to see a little bit more scrutiny in terms of what are you getting from all this, the inference cost you’re spending, how is it translating, which is not surprising given the amount it’s rising across the industry. And we’re going to come out the other side with more balanced ROI-driven investment portfolio of how we spend these things. And we’re optimistic about how it’s going to work out very well for us.

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM)

Leading AI companies are all Salesforce customers, in particular, Slack customers; Slack was half of Salesforce’s $1 million-plus wins in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), up 80% year-on-year; Slack is AI startup Anthropic’s core operating system; Slackbot is also a MCP (model context protocol) client; Slack MCP has seen 1 million users in 6 weeks; Slack’s agentic work units (AWUs) was up 350% sequentially in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1); management thinks that in 2 years, there will be more agents using Slack than people; management thinks agents need the context and data that resides in Slack; internal usage of Slackbot by Salesforce has led to 3.8 million hours of annualised productivity gains; Anthropic is one of the biggest users of Salesforce’s Sales Cloud; Slackbot has increased the productivity of Salesforce by around 3%; management sees Slack as the place where humans and agents work together; management sees the work graph of enterprises living in Slack, which is already one of the richest work contexts, becoming even richer over time; 3 million custom apps were built by the community on Slack in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), up 8x sequentially, and 250,000 of the custom apps were 3rd-party AI agents, which doubled sequentially; management sees Slack on a fast track towards being a $10 billion cloud

OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, companies building the future of AI, all of them Salesforce customers, all of them Slack customers, building these incredible new capabilities with Agentforce…

…Slack, which every AI company in the Bay Area here is using to run their business, including OpenAI and Anthropic, transforming our customers into agentic enterprise. Slack was nearly half of our 1 million-plus wins this quarter, up 80% year-over-year…

…Anthropic calls Slack its core operating system, and that’s what Slack is becoming for every enterprise. All of our apps are Slack first. So now a service agent can summarize a case, update the record, escalate to a human right in Slack. And Slackbot is also an MCP client, so you can tell it to create a purchase order in NetSuite or update a project in Jira, and it happens, no switching tools. We’ve seen 1 million users of Slack MCP in the first 6 weeks, and Slack AWUs grew nearly 350% quarter-over-quarter.

In 2 years, there’ll be more agents using Slack than people. Every one of those agents needs the context and the data and the insights directly from Slack. Every workflow needs the data. Every action needs the integration and every customer needs to see what’s happening across the entire business. We have the largest collection of trusted CRM context ever assembled between Data 360, Informatica, MuleSoft, Tableau manage and deliver all that context so that any agent can reason, act, and deliver real outcomes…

…Slackbot, which is embedded directly into the flow of work, is now our fastest adopted AI tool in Salesforce’s history, driving 3.8 million hours of annualized productivity gains for our employees…

…Anthropic is one of our biggest users of CRM of Sales Cloud…

…Slackbot is our personal assistant. It has increased the productivity of the whole company around 3% more or less…

…When we say agents and humans work together, you experience it in Slack. When you’re in a channel and suddenly in a lot of these — especially I see it now in my engineering channels, like half the time, somebody puts a question or a request on a Slack channel and the agent is listening and answering it, developers do a PR request in Slack. And then suddenly, the agent is picking up and trying to do it. They want status reports. So I think Slack is where people can really understand the manifestation and they’re all asking questions as a human and Slackbot is even a better way of articulating that in a packaged way…

…Because that work graph that will become one of the richest work context in the enterprise is getting richer and richer. So we build — I mean, the community built 3 million custom apps on Slack in Q1. That’s 8x quarter-on-quarter. I mean there is a huge boom. Out of those custom apps, there were 250,000 that were AI agents that were built, third-party AI agents, and that grew more than doubled in quarter-on-quarter, grew eightfold year-on-year…

…I’m not giving guidance by what I’m saying, but sales is a $10 billion cloud already. Service is a $10 billion cloud already. Data is already a $10 billion cloud. I think when we see the growth rate that’s happening inside Slack, you saw the ACV was incredible in the first quarter. This is going to be fast track from something we bought with less than $1 billion that I’m sure we’ll be talking in short order about Slack being a $10 billion cloud as well.

Agentforce ARR reached $1 billion in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) (was $800 million in 2025 Q4, up 169% year-on-year); Agentforce and Data 360 reached nearly $3.4 billion in ARR (annual recurring revenue) in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) (was $2.9 billion in 2025 Q4, up 200% year-on-year); 50% of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) were from expansions by existing customers; management recently announced Agentforce Coworker, where every Salesforce application now comes with a built-in autonomous agent; bookings for A1E and A4X, Salesforce’s premium SKUs that include agentic capabilities, was up 60% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1); top 10 customers by AWUs (agentic work units) in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) increased their total Salesforce spend by 1.5x in the last 12 months; Agentforce allows every user of Salesforce to create agents

We’re seeing incredible demand for Agentforce with ARR now greater than $1 billion. And combined with Data 360 and Informatica Cloud, we’ve delivered $3.4 billion in AI and Data ARR. 50% of Agentforce and Data 360 bookings were from existing customers expanding their commitment.

…Very excited about our new Agentforce Coworker, which we announced last week. If you haven’t heard about that, every single one of our Salesforce applications now comes with a built-in autonomous agent. No complex configuration. You just turn it on. It becomes your coworker, finding answers, taking action, getting work done fast. To give you an idea of the impact that Coworker will have, people search for information inside Salesforce 1 billion times a month. Coworker turns search into answers and answers into action…

…Agentforce ARR surpassed the $1 billion mark this quarter. Our largest applications, sales and service saw year-over-year seat growth with humans and agents both expanding on the platform. Bookings for A1E and A4X, our premium SKUs anchored in sales and service, including the value from our agentic capabilities, grew nearly 60% year-over-year. As customers adopt Agentforce, they expand across our platform. On average, our top 10 customers by Q1 AWU usage have increased their total Salesforce spend by 1.5x in the last year…

…Those of you who are Salesforce users, the millions of people who use Salesforce every day, the search bar is a critical part of how the application operates. Now Agentforce is that search bar. So you can not only search and aggregate and get insights into information throughout every single app we have, but also create agents, and those agents can appear in Slack and Microsoft Teams and other applications, even in an app that’s going to run directly on your phone called Salesforce Coworker.

Salesforce has processed 28.6 trillion tokens to-date in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), up 152% sequentially (was 19 trillion to-date in 2025 Q4); Salesforce has delivered 3.8 billion AWUs (agentic work units) to-date, up 111% sequentially (was 2.4 billion in 2025 Q4)

To date, we processed 28.6 trillion tokens, up 152% quarter-over-quarter and converted them into 3.8 billion, as I mentioned already, agentic work units for our customers, up 11% — sorry, up 111% quarter-over-quarter.

Salesforce acquired Qualified in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1); Salesforce has integrated Qualified’s sales development representative (SDR) agent, Piper, into Salesforce; more than 700 customers are already using Piper; Piper is deployed on Salesforce’s website and is engaging with 50% of the website’s traffic, delivering 45% more pipeline than traditional web agents

In Q1, we completed the acquisition of the Qualified and integrated Piper, their SDR agent, into Salesforce. Brought all those great Salesforce alumni back home. More than 700 customers are already using Piper. It’s an incredible success, and we deployed Piper on salesforce.com, as I mentioned. So you’re going to be able to use it firsthand. I think that’s so great. It’s engaging 50% of our traffic and qualifying thousands of leads and delivering 45% more pipeline than traditional web agents.

Salesforce’s management recently announced Headless 360, which makes all of Salesforce accessible through MCP (model context protocol) clients, APIs, and CLA (command-line agent) prompts; since Headless 360’s launch in April 2026, Salesforce has already processed 4.5 million MCP calls and 1 trillion API calls; management thinks Headless 360 expands Salesforce’s addressable market into previously unmonetised areas; management is excited about Headless 360 in 2 areas, namely, (1) Headless 360 making it easier to implement Salesforce with coding agents, and (2) customers getting more value out of Salesforce through Headless 360; management is not seeing customers build in-house applications with Headless 360 to replace Salesforce; Slackbot is an example of a Headless 360 experience; the Headless MCP server for Slack has done 50 million tool calls; Headless is a way for agents to connect to Salesforce with APIs, because agents require slightly different types of APIs than what human developers used when connecting with Salesforce in the past

This quarter, we also announced Headless 360. Again, making all of Salesforce accessible through our MCP clients, APIs, CLA prompts. Headless 360 bringing together the human agents and headless platforms so you can use Salesforce with any coding agent across any surface. It’s going to speed implementations, drive consumption, more actions, more workflow, more data, more intelligence, all compounding across Salesforce. We’re meeting our customers where they are. Since launch in April, we’ve already processed 4.5 million MCP calls into our platform. Q1 alone, we processed nearly 1 trillion API calls, incredible…

…Looking ahead, the Headless 360 strategy that Marc walked through expands our addressable market into surfaces we’ve never previously monetized…

…I think what’s so exciting about Headless is 2 things. One, it’s having a real impact on making it easier to implement with Salesforce. So building out with Salesforce has now become easier than ever because we’ve seen these coding agents, Claude and Codex from OpenAI. As you use these things, what you realize is you need to be able to connect the underlying APIs, which you do through this layer that’s called MCP. And if you can connect those into the coding agents, it makes it faster than ever to implement and deploy Salesforce. And I think we’re seeing that show up in the numbers. Just this quarter alone, Agentforce customers in production grew by 50%. So I think we’re starting to see a little bit of that impact as not just our customers, but also our global SIs across the entire platform, absolutely implementing Data 360, implementing Agentforce, implementing a service. All of this — life sciences, all of this now becomes really just a conversation. So that’s one end.

But the other end is really what we heard from Miguel, which is this is really changing how people get value and consume Salesforce. In my experience, we’re not seeing people take this capability and the coding agents, for example, and try to build all of this stuff themselves. What they want to do is they want to take this capability and they want to use Salesforce in different ways and get more value out of it. So rather than logging into this discrete application and this application and this application to get an answer to one question that might span multiple applications or multiple kind of sources of information, you can now just take these MCP servers and plug them into any tool that you want…

…If you’re a Slack customer, you can get to it right with Slackbot. That’s really a Headless experience as well…

…We announced the Headless MCP server for Slack and Slack has done 30 million — 50 million tool calls…

…When you’re a builder, when you’re out there building something, and this is especially true today because there’s now an ocean of builders that have been created as a result of this coding agent boom. When you go to build something for your business, you, at some point, are likely going to want to connect to Salesforce that is what we see. And it doesn’t matter what platform you’re doing it on. You can be building something on a competitive platform to Salesforce or on Google or AWS or one of our partners. But at some point, you’re going to want to connect into Salesforce. And that’s why those APIs have always been hugely, hugely used. But when you are building with an agent, you need a slightly different type of API. That’s what we call MCP. And so by really putting those MCP servers out and saying, yes, this is how we want people to build.

Informatica has been a successful acquisition, performing the heavy lifting and data management that customers need to move agentic workloads from pilot to production; Informatica has helped drive an acceleration in revenue growth at Salesforce; Informatica’s bookings growth has accelerated significantly since being acquired by Salesforce

Informatica has an amazing acquisition. It performed incredibly well this quarter. It’s doing the heavy lifting and data management that every customer needs to move from pilot to production…

…And now with Informatica as part of Data 360, we’re already unlocking synergies with revenue growth accelerating since the acquisition. This is the flywheel we laid out at our Investor Day, and it’s working. Those signals show up in the headline numbers…

…Informatica was a business that was growing single digit, both on bookings and revenue. In just 2 quarters, we have significantly reaccelerated that the bookings of the chart beyond anybody’s expectation because data is king.

Salesforce deployed Agentforce on its support website 15 months ago and it has already handled 4 million inquiries autonomously; Agentforce now handles 2x what human agents are handling on Salesforce’s support website; Agentforce Sales worked 220,000 leads for Salesforce autonomously in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), generating a $42 million pipeline; Agentforce Coworker is able to quickly answer questions that would have taken an hour to do so in the past

Since we deployed Agentforce on help.salesforce.com and on 1-800-NO-SOFTWARE, well, only 15 months ago, it’s autonomously handled now 4 million inquiries. It’s now double what human agents are handling…

…Over 25 years, Salesforce has generated tens of millions of leads. We never called back. In Q1 alone, Agentforce sales worked 220,000 leads autonomously, generating $42 million in pipeline, awesome…

…Agentforce Coworker was able to pull together and navigate our complex sales and ERP data to answer questions that just yesterday would have been 60 minutes of swivel chairing between screens and systems. It was pretty cool to see that.

Wine company Vivino is using Agentforce to support 74 million users with just 37 reps; Agentfore has helped Vivino reduce resolution time of customer queries by 70%; cyber security company McAfee has replaced ServiceNow with Salesforce’s Agentforce IT Service; Florida Prepaid is using Agentforce to autonomously handle 75% of business hour calls, and 100% of after-hour calls; cyber security company Fortinet is using Agentforce Sales for predictive lead scoring; Agibank built a sales development representative (SDR) agent with Agentforce Sales

Vivino, the world’s largest wine company supporting 74 million users with only 37 reps, kind of hard to believe, but it’s possible because its agent, Vivina, autonomously handles order status, lookups, account questions more autonomously slashing resolution time by 70%. McAfee has selected our new Agentforce ITSM product or what we call Agentforce IT Service to replace ServiceNow. They are using it for everything, ticket deflection, hardware provisioning, incident management. Florida Prepaid, a college savings plan provider with more than 200,000 accounts is using Agentforce voice to autonomously handle 75% of business hour calls and 100% of after-hour calls…

…Cybersecurity leader, Fortinet using Agentforce sales to power predictive lead scoring. Financial leader, AgiBank now built an SDR agent that instantly qualifies leads on WhatsApp.

Indeed is using Headless 360 to build and deploy Agentforce agents directly from Cursor; Just Eat is using Headless 360 to bring agents into WhatsApp for engaging 350,000 partners across 15 countries; Adecco is excited that agents they are building outside of Agentforce can now leverage Salesforce because of Headless 360; Anthropic’s usage of Slack through 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) has grown 5x partly because they are using Sales Cloud via Headless 360; the presence of Headless 360 has made Sales Cloud even more strategic for Anthropic

With Headless 360, Indeed is building and deploying Agentforce agents right from Cursor and Just Eat Takeaway, one of the leading online food delivery platforms in Europe, we just had them speak to our entire management team with such an amazing story, is using Headless 360 already to bring agents into WhatsApp and other channels, engaging with 350,000 partners across 15 countries…

…Adecco, great customer across the board. They use pretty much every cloud. They went into Data Cloud and Agentforce last year. They did a big commitment in Q1, at the beginning of Q1. They are basically design and AELA, wall-to-wall. They have amazing recruiter agents going there, millions of transactions. They’re moving into voice. When we announced Headless, they called us and they are like, “Wait a minute, this is — let me try to understand what you’re doing.” So now because they are also using other platforms to develop other agents. So they have agents with some of the AI labs that they’re also trying to access our data. Are you saying that now these agents that we are building outside Agentforce can also leverage Salesforce? And we said, exactly, we did it for that. So now there’s going to be a lot of new agents that are going to be accessing our platform…

…Anthropic is one of our biggest users of CRM of Sales Cloud. And obviously, Slack, their usage through Q1 has exploded fivefold because now they are using Sales Cloud from a Headless perspective, and they are approaching it from Coworker, from other applications from Slack, they’re hitting Sales Cloud. So Sales Cloud has become more prominent and more strategic for them than ever because of Headless.

PenFed Credit Union handles 500 transactions every second, and 160 million member transactions annually, and wanted to deliver hyper-personalisation for customers; PenFed Credit Union chose Salesforce to enable the hyper-personalisation and now has 76 agents across various functions; PenFed Credit Union chose Salesforce because it has the products, engineers, and reputation that PenFed Credit Union was looking for in a vendor; PenFed Credit Union built Agent Wingman with Salesforce; in 2026 (FY2027), Agent Wingman will help PenFed Credit Union (1) save $1.6 million, (2) lower call handle time by 10%, (3) lower after-call work time by 50%, and (4) lower held calls by 40%; PenFed Credit Union has agents listening to a phone call with members for transcription; PenFed Credit Union only developed its agentic vision about 2 years ago

[PenFed Credit Union CEO] When we’re competing against 8,000 other firms, we got to deliver hyper-personalization and every transaction, we do about 500 transactions a second, 160 million member transactions a year. They have to be right anywhere in the world real time. So we built our entire platform over the last few years. We went from about 400 platforms down to literally 12 strategic partners. Our call center, our mobile, our web, and our branches all run on Salesforce. Every additional partner or tech siloed capability is a tax on innovation, it’s a tax on speed, and it’s a tax on security. So by building it around Salesforce, I really think it’s taking me 25 years to realize Jim Collins’ Flywheel Effect, we have 76 agents now running across operations, mortgages, IT, HR. All of our areas are adopting it to make our employees be more productive. We like to say they’re bionic employees now. We’re not losing employees. We’re able to add more volume at scale, industrialized scale with the same number of people, and we’re very proud of that…

…How is the decision really made? First of all, does the firm, in this case, Salesforce have the product and service that we need? Second, do you have the engineers, the architects, the professionals to work with my team in order to bring that vision to reality? And then lastly, even if another firm had those first 2, who is the firm standing behind it that can be there through good times and bad times that’s going to stand behind that product or service. When you line up all 3, that’s where a good trusted partnership exists. That’s why we went with Salesforce. So we work with your team literally hand in hand. We said we want to streamline processes. We want to take out latency in the code. We want to do X, Y or Z. Your team was there in the trenches at every level, engineers, architects, building out the vision. But then it’s not just pie in the sky on the white [ sheet ], it’s implementable. We have 76 agents running side by side with our employees.

A good example is in our call centers. We have Agent Wingman. I’m an aviator, so I think they named it because I like Wingman. Agent Wingman is going to save me nearly $1.6 million this year, has decreased our call handle time 10% this year, 50% reduction in after-call work time and 40% reduction in held calls. So better experience for the member…

…I want my employees to do the knowledge work, building trust in the relationship, not entering what just happened on the phone call. We have agents that listen to the phone call, transcribe it. The human is still in the loop. They approve what was just talked about, but then it’s 360, if the transaction occurred in the branch, web, mobile. So the next person that deals with that consumer, that member, they know exactly the relationship. They know what we might want to sell them next or what they need next for their daughter, their graduation…

…We had the vision when we saw what was possible 2 years ago. You can build it quickly. The most important thing is having the right partner and not to have too many partners. Too many partners slow things down.

UCLA Health has been working with Salesforce for some time; UCLA Health recently consolidated into a single instance of Salesforce’s Health Cloud; UCLA Health recently launched its first experiment with Agentforce, which is a customer-facing virtual concierge; UCLA Health was very cautious about launching a customer-facing virtual concierge

[UCLA Health executive] We’ve been working with Salesforce for quite a few years. But most recently, we’ve consolidated into one single instance of Health Cloud, and we’ve built on top of that with Marketing Cloud, Data 360, and most recently launched our first experiment with Agentforce, and that’s a customer-facing chatbot that just — it’s — right now, it’s only scraping our website to act as a little bit of a virtual concierge to direct patients to where they need to go. It’s helping with find a provider. It’s helping with general inquiries. It’s helping with clinical trials…

…I would say it took a while for us to sort of dip our toe in the water in the customer-facing space. We’re doing a lot on the back end when it comes to research, but this really has an impact on our operations. And we took a lot of precautions. This particular product really helped us from a testing perspective. There were a lot of protocols in place that allowed us to validate every step that we were taking. And that offered a lot of certainty for senior leadership to kind of sign off on the first experiment that we took here.

The use of AI coding tools by Salesforce employees has doubled the amount of features and codes shipped in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1) compared to a year ago; Salesforce’s engineering team has been kept at 15,000 for the past 2 years because of the higher efficiency of the engineers through the use of AI coding tools

In Q1, AI coding tools enabled us to double the amount of features and codes shipped year-over-year, while simultaneously reducing incidents and defects…

…Srini is here at the table. He’s got what about 15,000 engineers, and you’ve had the 15,000 engineers for about 2 years, it’s been mostly flat, right? And I would say that the reason it’s been mostly flat is because we have been using AI to create more efficiency for our engineers. And especially this year, now with these new coding agents, we’re seeing even more dramatic capability.

The biggest way for Salesforce to monetise AI is by selling Flex Credits

The biggest way that we have to monetize AI is with customer-facing use cases by selling Flex Credits, by putting fuel in the tank 6 of the top 10 deals, 6 of the top 10 deals were AELAs, unlimited enterprise license agreement, where we threw in a bunch of Flex Credits and customers are deploying use case after use case, channel after channel.

Salesforce has been able to protect its margins despite investing in AI because it’s not hiring more engineers as a result of higher productivity; Salesforce’s headcount is growing only because of an expansion of the sales team, and that is because AI agents cannot actually sell; Salesforce’s margins are protected despite the company spending a lot with OpenAI and Anthropic

Srini is here at the table. He’s got what about 15,000 engineers, and you’ve had the 15,000 engineers for about 2 years, it’s been mostly flat, right? And I would say that the reason it’s been mostly flat is because we have been using AI to create more efficiency for our engineers. And especially this year, now with these new coding agents, we’re seeing even more dramatic capability. So that’s a key part of our margin story is that we’re not hiring more engineers. We’re not hiring more GA. We’re mostly expanding only in one area.

You can see head count has grown, but it’s mostly growing in Miguel’s area in sales because I think we all realize the one thing that we’re doing here with you selling and communicating that agents are not exactly doing that. They can qualify, okay? They can provide service. But in sales, we still scale because there are so many different parts of the market that we have to get to. So that will be a critical part of expanding our company, but at the same time, expanding our margins…

…It’s not that we’re not spending a lot with OpenAI. We are. We’re using their platform. We’re using Codex, their coding tool. We’re using Anthropic. We’re using their platform and their coding tool Cowork. We’re using both of these platforms.

Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE)

Sea’s management has used AI in Shopee’s search and recommendation systems to improve product discovery; Shopee has AI content tools for sellers to create better product listings, which has helped the purchase conversion rate improve by 14% year-on-year in 2026 Q1; AI-powered advertising personalisation and targeting contributed to Sea’s 80% advertising revenue growth in 2026 Q1; management is exploring an AI shopping assistant for buyers that can deliver personalised recommendations and cost savings; management is building an AI agent for sellers that can be a business advisor; the AI shopping assistant and AI agent for sellers are both in the early stages

We have taken a practical resource-oriented approach, embedding AI into our operations to drive better outcomes for our users and greater efficiency across our platform. This is already making a meaningful impact. AI-powered enhancements to our search and recommendation algorithms have led to better product discovery. Our AI-generated content tools are helping sellers create more compelling product listing. These efforts supported a 14% improvement in purchase conversion rate year-on-year in the first quarter. And AI-driven personalization and targeting helped to contribute to the strong year-on-year ad revenue growth we saw this quarter…

…For buyers, we are testing an AI shopping assistant that leverages purchase history and preferences to deliver personalized recommendations and optimize savings. For sellers, we are building an AI agent that acts as a virtual business adviser, providing diagnostic and actionable insights on shop performance. Both are in early stages with plans to roll them out more widely over time.

Around 80% of Sea’s customer queries are now handled by its AI chatbot; AI has reduced Sea’s customer service cost per contact by 30% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 while maintaining satisfaction

Around 80% of customer queries are now handled by our AI chatbot. AI usage helped reduce customer service cost per contact by around 30% year-on-year, while maintaining high satisfaction rate.

Tencent (OTC: TCEHY)

Tencent has made significant progress in its Hunyuan large language model in the last 6 months; Tencent has overhauled its foundation model team and system and processes for pretraining and reinforced learning; management has moved away from from chasing public model benchmarks that can be gamed and has chosen to evaluate Tencent’s models with the latest exams, human tests, product feedback and in-house tasks; management launched Hunyuan 3 Preview in April; Hunyuan 3 Preview was designed to deliver comprehensive intelligence with cost efficiency; Tencent reduced Hunyuan 3 Preview’s inference costs significantly by designing inference together with the model; Hunyuan 3 Preview is already deployed across 131 of Tencent’s products, including Yuanbao, QQ, and WorkBuddy; Hunyuan 3 Preview has been ranked 1st on OpenRouter by token usage since April 28, even after its free period ended on May 8; the Hunyuan team is already working on a larger parameter model; Hunyuan 3 Preview is a smaller model, but is still very capable; Hunyuan 3 Preview is significantly better than Hunyuan 2 for agentic work; Hunyuan 3 Preview’s total token usage is at least 10x compared to earlier generations; Hunyaun 3 is currently not fully integrated into Weixin because it depends on Weixin’s own evaluation on what’s the best model for users; the adoption of Hunyuan 3 Preview in actual use cases has been much better than management expected

Over the last 6 months, we have made significant progress on our Hunyuan large language model..

…We started the initiative by completely overhauling our foundation model team, centering around newly added elite AI researchers and engineers with deep expertise in large language models. Our new team is young, energetic and cohesive, enabling us to make progress quickly in this highly dynamic AI era.

In February, we reengineered the system and process for pretraining and reinforced learning from the ground up. We rearchitected the infrastructure to support robustness, scalability and efficiency across pretraining, data and reinforcement learning. On data, we expanded our data set significantly and strengthened our data collection, cleansing and synthesis capabilities with a focus on data quality. On training, we upgraded the process for pretraining and supervised fine-tuning, and we scaled up reinforcement learning. And for evaluation, we’re moving away from chasing public benchmarks that can be gamed. Instead, we evaluate our model through the latest exams, human tests, product feedback and in-house tasks to see how the model actually performs in the real world.

In April, we launched Hunyuan 3 Preview. When we set out to build this model, the purpose was to build a cost-efficient and solid model for diverse applications and derisk scaling toward larger models. The core design principles behind Hunyuan 3 Preview was to deliver comprehensive intelligence and cost efficiency, optimizing it for real-world deployment. We moved beyond narrow expertise and towards comprehensive intelligence such as integrating reasoning, long context understanding, instruction follow, dialogue, coding and tool-use capabilities. And by codesigning inference with model, we’re able to reduce costs significantly so that the intelligence is economical enough to be used at scale. Hunyuan 3 Preview has delivered on these expectations.

The model has already become a leading reasoning model in China and has proven effective in real-world software engineering and other productivity agent tasks. Internally, the model has been deployed across 131 widely used internal products, including Yuanbao, QQ and WorkBuddy, providing valuable feedback and iterative improvement vehicle design process. And externally, Hunyuan 3 Preview has been well received by users and developers in real applications. It has ranked first among all models available on OpenRouter by token usage since April 28 and continued its lead even after its free period ended on May 8…

…Our Hunyuan team is already working on a larger parameter model, leveraging our infrastructure and learnings from Hunyuan 3 by aggregating bigger and better data sets and scaling more powerful reinforcement learning, we can strengthen the model’s contextual understanding, enhance its agent capabilities in areas, including coding and increase the model’s general intelligence. Through codesigning and collaborating with other Tencent product teams, we are optimizing data set selection and focusing reinforcement learning for high-value use cases…

…We have given a pretty comprehensive overview of Hunyuan 3. And as you can see from the prepared remarks, it’s more intelligent and it’s actually very strong in terms of reasoning despite being a smaller model. And at the same time, it has significant improvement vis-a-vis Hunyuan 2 on agent capabilities…

…The total token usage is actually at least 10x compared to Hunyuan, so that’s the clear indication that Hunyuan 3 is actually well designed…

…In terms of the integration into the Weixin workflow, I think it will be a step-by-step process. And Weixin itself actually sort of have been always using some part of their products, Hunyuan 2 and they upgraded already to Henyuan 3. And in some cases, they use different models and they evaluate different models and evaluate what’s the best model to use for their users, right? So as Henyuan 3 continue to be getting better and better, then they will be adopting more…

…if you look at how this is received in the actual use cases, it’s actually better than our expectation by quite a bit.

Tencent’s management thinks agentic AI is a breakthrough use case for AI; management thinks agentic AI first delivered value in coding through enhanced productivity and is now shifting to more workloads and occupations; management thinks Tencent’s apps, such as Weixin, Yuanbao, and more, are great avenues for users to control AI agents; in the future, management will enable AI agents to access Tencent’s Mini Programs as AI skills; management sees Tencent having a lead in agentic AI deployment through the leading DAU (daily active users) of WorkBuddy; Tencent’s agentic products, CodeBuddy and WorkBuddy, are still early in their lifecycle but currently have strong organic growth and high retention rates; the high usage of Tencent’s agentic products is a virtuous feedback loop for the company, as more usage leads to insights for product development, which leads to more agentic usage, and as agentic usage grows, token usage in Tencent Cloud also grows; management thinks the breakthrough of agentic AI as a use case is a very recent phenomenon

It has become increasingly evident that agentic AI represents a breakthrough use case after AI chatbots have become popular. Agents are more valuable in uplifting productivity from initial use cases supporting programmers in creating code, such as with our product CodeBuddy to now catering to a wider range of workloads and occupations such as with Claws and WorkBuddy. These breakthroughs were made possible by more powerful models and by the hardness infrastructure that allows models to utilize tools and act as interfaces that enable users to manage agents effectively.

Our platform inherently has many benefits of hosting AI agents as users can control AI agents through our communications and browsing interfaces such as Weixin, WeCom, QQ, Yuanbao and QQ Browser in addition to third-party applications…

…And in the future, AI agents will be able to access our Mini Programs ecosystem using Mini Programs codes as AI skills.

Tencent has established an early lead in agentic AI deployment evidenced by the leading DAU of our product, WorkBuddy. While early in adoption cycle, CodeBuddy and WorkBuddy are already achieving strong organic growth and high retention rates among active users and paying users. The high time spent and high-frequency interaction with AI agents among early adopters act as a virtuous feedback loop to Tencent, enable us to identify and provide complementary software and services, which in turn drives increased AI agent usage among a broader enterprise and prosumer user base. As users utilize more AI agents for more complex tasks, paying user conversion increases, resulting in rapid growth in token usage on Tencent Cloud in recent weeks…

…The upturn in sort of productivity AI is really something that’s happened not in the last few quarters or even last few months, but last few weeks. And I think that’s true globally actually, that really, it’s since late in or since the end of the first quarter that the Agentic AI has broken through in terms of its ability to create code, in terms of its ability to make people more productive.

Tencent’s management believes Tencent Video has competitive advantages in creating animated series, partly because of the use of generative AI for storyboarding and producing animation

We believe Tencent Video possesses competitive advantages in creating animated series, including our ability to cross over IP from China literature and our games into animated IP and our use of technology tools such as Unreal Engine and generative AI for storyboarding and producing the animated content. Tencent Music subscription revenue increased 7% year-on-year, driven by growth in ARPU and subscribers.

Tencent’s management has improved the content recommendation model for video accounts, which has led to a 20% year-on-year increase in total time spent on video accounts; management has upgraded the developer toolkit architecture for Mini Programs to enable users to better leverage AI plug-ins; Weixin Search’s query volume was up 25% year-on-year in 2026 Q1, driven by foundation model powered ranking and broadening AI search coverage to include image-based queries

We scaled up the number of parameters and enhanced the algorithm for video accounts content recommendation model, enabling deeper understanding of users’ interest to recommend more personalized and relevant content and total time spent on video accounts increased over 20% year-on-year. For Mini Programs, we’ve upgraded the developer toolkit architecture so users can better leverage AI plug-ins, including CodeBuddy to create and debug Mini Programs…

…Total query volume on Weixin search increased over 25% year-on-year, benefiting from foundation model powered ranking and broadening AI search coverage to include image-based queries.

Tencent’s management sees AI being really helpful for game production in areas such as accelerating 3D asset production and animation, improving the player experience, and delivering better graphics; the use of AI in game production can be directly revenue-generating, and management has seen this happen; management sees Tencent as a global leader in utilising generative AI to improve game production; management’s objective with generative AI in the games business is to speed up content creation and generate incremental revenue; management is not intentionally using AI in the games business to expand margins, even though operating leverage should happen in the games business if AI is applied correctly to boost revenue

AI provides increasingly helpful tools, facilitating our game developers to deliver more content and enhanced experiences. Currently, AI for games is most beneficial in areas, including accelerating 3D asset production and animation, enriching player experiences with intelligent in-game guides and delivering more realistic graphics via AI rendering techniques…

…Generative AI enables us to produce more content faster. And that content is, in some cases, to enhance the overall player experience. But in some cases, it results in direct monetization. For example, if the content is a virtual outfit. And so that’s what we are doing, and that’s what we are seeing. And we think that we’re a China leader and to some extent, even more so a global leader in terms of deploying that capability and achieving that benefit. And the objective at this point is really faster content creation and incremental revenue generation. We’re not prioritizing margin expansion per se. It’s more that as we deliver the revenue uplift that we’re seeing and if we can keep headcount fairly stable, then I suppose mathematically, that combination would tend to result in higher margins over time, but that’s sort of a happy output rather than the intention of the process.

Tencent’s AI Market Plus automated campaign management solution, powered 30% of total advertising spend; management has upgraded Tencent’s runtime advertising recommendation models with a unified transformer-based architecture; Tencent’s video accounts ad impressions grew rapidly year-on-year in 2026 Q1

Our automated campaign management solution, AI Marketing Plus powered around 30% of total marketing services spending from advertisers with us in the quarter. We upgraded our runtime advertising recommendation models with a unified transformer-based architecture. This upgrade provides deeper understanding of user context and the intent while balancing model complexity with system efficiency. By inventory, video accounts ad impressions grew rapidly year-on-year, supported by increased total time spent video views and ad load. We released more inventory of rewarded ads, which deliver high click-throughs for advertisers.

Within the Fintech and Business Services segment, Business Services revenue grew 20% year-on-year in 2026 Q1, driven by higher demand and a better pricing environment for cloud services; Tencent Cloud benefited from AI-related demand across GPUs, CPUs, and storage; management had upgraded Tencent Cloud’s AI agentic solutions, which led to rapid usage growth and token monetisation; Tencent Cloud’s international business increased revenue by 40% year-on-year in 2026 Q1; Tencent Cloud finally has sufficient GPUs to serve all the external demand it’s seeing; previously, management had prioritised Tencent’s internal AI use cases for its AI compute but newer AI compute capacity will be focused on meeting external demand for Tencent Cloud

Turning to Business Services. Revenue in the first quarter grew 20% year-on-year, driven by increased demand and better pricing environment for our cloud services alongside rising technology service fees generated from mini shops e-commerce. For Tencent Cloud, AI-related demand contributed to increased revenue year-on-year across GPU, CPU and storage. We upgraded Tencent Cloud’s AI agent solutions with proprietary security infrastructure, skill hubs and interfaces, contributing to rapidly increasing usage and initial token monetization. Tencent Cloud’s international business grew its revenue over 40% year-on-year as we expanded our global footprint and captured demand for our Platform-as-a-Service solutions, including media processing services and TDSQL cloud database…

…For Tencent Cloud, where until now, we actually haven’t had sufficient GPUs to begin to service the external demand, the KPIs will be more revenue and market share related…

…We’ve already made the choice and paid the price in that we have prioritized a multiplicity of internal services ahead of Tencent Cloud…

…And the reason why we have been able to support all of these at once is because we have not been active in leasing out GPU capacity in Tencent Cloud. Now looking through the rest of this year, as the supply of China design GPUs progressively ramps up, then we’ll be remedying that situation, and we will be making more capacity available in Tencent Cloud and consequently driving up Tencent Cloud’s rate of expansion. But that’s where the trade-off has been made that we have been consciously late to monetize the AI opportunity through Tencent Cloud because we’ve been simultaneously supporting a number of AI initiatives internally.

Tencent’s operating capex in 2026 Q1 was up 18% year-on-year and up 84% sequentially because of higher server investments; non-operating capex was down 36% year-on-year (was RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 Q1); free cash flow was up 20% year-on-year, and up 67% sequentially

Operating CapEx was RMB 31.2 billion, up 18% year-on-year and 84% quarter-on-quarter as we accelerated investment in server infrastructure. Nonoperating CapEx was RMB 0.7 billion. Free cash flow was RMB 56.7 billion, up 20% year-on-year, driven by growth in games, gross receipts and advertising billings, partly offset by higher server infrastructure and compute spending. On a Q-on-Q basis, free cash flow was up by 67%, reflecting seasonally higher game gross receipts and the timing of certain seasonal accounts payable settlements, partly offset by higher server infrastructure and compute spending.

Tencent’s management thinks it’s still too early to determine the impacts that agentic AI can have on the e-commerce industry, but they don’t see agentic AI as a risk to Tencent’s advertising business

[Question] With agents increasingly potentially replacing the traditional click-throughs on the web pages and also the apps, could management share your view on the future advertising pricing and also the resulting impact on advertiser budget?

[Answer] It’s certainly more of an issue potentially for e-commerce companies than it is for us because users actively choose and desire to spend their time watching short videos or listening to music or consuming content or chatting with their friends versus generally speaking, when users spend time on e-commerce, it’s because they’re trying to find the lowest price. It’s not because they necessarily enjoy that process. So to the extent that AI agents play a bigger role in the future in facilitating price comparison, then it’s possible that users will spend less time on e-commerce sites and be less exposed to ads than they are today, while the AI agents can scan infinite listings and therefore, not influenced by ads the way that human beings with a finite attention span are influenced. All of that said, there’s been many prior iterations of price comparison services, including search engines and the big e-commerce companies are generally thrived despite the existence of those price comparison services. So I think it’s premature for us to sort of have a definitive view at this point on how it will affect our friends in the e-commerce industry. But we don’t see it as a primary risk for Tencent.

Tencent’s management continues to see Tencent increasing capex substantially in 2026, especially in 2026 H2, to meet AI-related demand; Tencent’s AI-related capex in 2026 will be focused on AI chips designed by Chinese companies; the KPIs management is looking at to determine the ROI (return on investment) of AI-related capex includes (1) revenue and profit for the advertising and games businesses, (2) intelligence, usage, and token consumption for the new AI products, and (3) revenue and market share for Tencent Cloud; Tencent Cloud finally has sufficient GPUs to serve all the external demand it’s seeing; in management’s eyes, the ROIs on AI-related capex have both near-term and long-term components, with advertising being a near-term example and Hunyuan being a long-term example; previously, management had prioritised Tencent’s internal AI use cases for its AI compute but newer AI compute capacity will be focused on meeting external demand for Tencent Cloud

We are seeing increased demand, both from internal products as well as from external users of our model for our AI-related services. And we had previously guided that we’ll be increasing CapEx this year versus last year, and we’re now more affirmative, more confident in that guidance. And we and you should expect a substantial increase in CapEx, especially in the second half of this year as more China designed ASICs become available to us month by month through the year…

…At a high level, for our existing activities such as advertising and games, the KPIs would be more revenue and profit related. For our new AI products, the KPIs would be more capabilities, how intelligent is our foundation model and usage, how much token consumption is happening on world body related. And then for Tencent Cloud, where until now, we actually haven’t had sufficient GPUs to begin to service the external demand, the KPIs will be more revenue and market share related…

…AI includes a range of sort of shorter cycle investments as well as longer cycle investments. And so if we buy GPUs and we deploy them into our ad tech, then that’s a relatively short-cycle investment. The GPUs yield better targeting, higher click-through rates and higher revenue and profit on a pretty accelerated basis. On the other hand, when we deploy GPUs into our Hunyuan foundation model, that’s something which we view as important for our franchise and where we’re taking a longer-term view…

…We’ve already made the choice and paid the price in that we have prioritized a multiplicity of internal services ahead of Tencent Cloud…

Tencent’s management thinks society is still at a very early stage in terms of AI diffusion; management thinks many new kinds of products will appear, beyond agentic AI; management believes that it’s much more important to find high-value use cases in AI as compared to focusing on gathering users because AI is expensive to produce for each user, unlike the internet which supports infinite scaling of users; management thinks building a subscription model for consumer AI in China is very difficult compared to the USA because the USA’s living standards are high and its population has a habit of paying high prices for subscriptions; management thinks the consumer AI market in China will not be a winner-takes-all market; management thinks it’s still early days for monetisation of AI in e-commerce and advertising even in the USA

In terms of how we think about the different products, we felt this is actually sort of a very early stage in terms of AI diffusion, right? And we would see many different products coming up going forward. Initially, it was chatbot and everybody felt chatbot is actually the king of the product. And then suddenly, you have a coding that came up and this becomes sort of even more eye-catching and less significant use case because it’s very high value, right? And now we are seeing sort of agentic capability proliferating right? And I think that would actually allow AI to be diffused to different industries, and you have many different agents coming up, which can help you to do work, right? And there’s going to be new products coming up. So I think that would continue to propagate.

And I think to some extent, right, you actually have to — in the AI world, you actually have to find a high-value use case as opposed to sort of just purely focused on DAU because the difference between the AI revolution and Internet is that this is about intelligence and intelligence manifest its value in sort of how much people are willing to pay for it. And at the same time, the intelligence is not free, right? In the Internet world, you basically sort of have mostly existing information. And then you also create some new information and content, but then that’s a fixed cost and then sort of the variable cost for delivering is actually very small, right? You only have to pay for bandwidth. and the compute sits on people’s devices, right? And as a result, you can almost like go for infinite scaling. But in this case, right, every single delivery of a DAU actually cost you quite a bit. And as a result, you can’t just apply the same logic as Internet and apply it to AI. And I would say the ability to find high-value use cases is going to be as important, if not more important than just sort of blindly get a lot of use DAU and user time…

…In terms of the 2C monetization, I would say it’s actually not easy, right? If you look at global standard in the Western market when the paid service is actually very well penetrated and the living standard is actually very high. So the subscription price in the Western market is multiple times of what the equivalent service in China is like, be it music service or be it video service. The paying penetration is probably in the single digit, right? And — and when you sort of applied it to China, I think the subscription model is not going to be that big for the China market…

…I think the more important implication is that when you have to have payment to support a service, then most likely the service is not going to be a winner take-all business. It would basically sort of be supporting multiple players who would have a share of the market and each one of them would sort of have some kind of users and some share of subscriptions…

…When we look at e-commerce or advertising as a way to monetize, I think it’s also very early for even the U.S. players where the eCPM is actually much higher, right? The leading player has not been able to roll out very robust advertising model.

Tencent’s management sees Tencent as having many more flagship internal use cases for AI as compared to the hyperscalers in the USA

And so I think most big tech hyperscale companies with cloud businesses have one flagship internal use case where they’re allocating a large number of GPUs. We have multiple flagships. We have the foundation model. We have agentic developments within Weixin. We have — support. We have the AI deployment for advertising for games, now also for the WorkBuddy and CodeBuddy use cases.

Tencent’s management thinks policy restrictions from the USA and limited manufacturing capacity in China are the reasons why there was a supply shortage of GPUs in China; the GPU supply shortage in China is now easing because there’s more capacity from China fabs and other foreign fabs to manufacturing China-designed AI chips; management does not see any supply shortage in China for CPUs and other networking chips; management is seeing that the suppliers of CPUs and networking chips are not raising prices indiscriminately over the short-term; management is seeing that the suppliers of CPUs and networking chips are negotiating long-term contracts with customers, and they are looking for a variety of customers

The reason why there’s been a GPU bottleneck that’s been much more pronounced in China than elsewhere is a combination of policy restrictions on certain foreign design GPUs being brought into China and then the China design GPUs facing limited fab capacity within China. And as a result, the country has really been short of GPU or ASIC capacity. And that’s now being addressed because the China designed ASICs are seeing more supply from fabs within China as well as more supply from fabs in neighboring countries.

But by contrast, we haven’t faced those sort of artificial additional constraints CPU or networking chips. We’ve been a big buyer of CPU and networking chips for many years before GPUs became such a big presence in data centers. We have very long-term relationships with the companies that supply the CPUs and supply the networking chips. And on their side, while one might think that these suppliers would be sitting back and just selling at the highest possible price into the spot market, that’s not actually the reality. The smart suppliers are taking very conscious 3- to 5-year forward views and negotiating long-term agreements in order to give them certainty of their revenue outlook over the next 3 to 5 years. And when they’re deciding with whom to sign those long-term agreements, they’re looking to work with a number of partners, not just a single partner, and they’re looking to work with partners who have been there for many years already and will be there for many years to come and ideally with partners whose demand they believe will grow substantially over time. And happily, we fulfill all of those criteria. We’ve been a big customer for the Intel and AMD and so forth for many years. We’ve been progressively growing our volume with them for many years, and they believe it will continue to progressively grow our volume for many years to come.

Veeva Systems (NASDAQ: VEEV)

Veeva’s management sees the company changing from an industry-specific application provider to an industry-specific application and agent provider; management wants Veeva to support both human users and agentic users; management is seeing pharmas leaning into a new technical architecture called MAAP (models, agents, and applications); management sees pharmas wanting to see AI in Veeva’s applications; management is thinking of building very specific agents that would go the last-mile and automate standardised actions for pharmas, and management thinks Veeva can lead in this area

Veeva is moving from an industry-specific application company to an industry-specific application and agent company. In our first chapter, we became the leader in applications. In this next chapter, we intend to also lead in industry-specific agents. This includes agents that support human users, as well as agentic labor, which represents an entirely new market and type of application user…

…[Question] As we think about pharma appetite for AI applications more broadly, I’m curious what areas you think they lean into first

[Answer] It’s not that they’re thinking mainly about transition from applications into AI applications. What they’re really leaning into is this new technical architecture, we call it the MAAP architecture of Models, Agents and Applications. So the applications that they get from Veeva, they’re looking for them to be more efficient, to have AI in there and help the users. What they really want to get to be is an agentic biopharma so that agents can do a lot of the work. And so the humans can do the more higher value work…

…Let’s just say there’s 100 million documents collected from clinical research sites around the world every year having to do with clinical trials, they have to be checked for quality and they have to be sorted into the right places. That’s work that agents can do, it’s difficult, specific work, but we can make agents that are very specific on that. Agents that take in a bunch of free text via e-mail or other channels and have to sort it out to see, is this a product complaint? If so, how to handle that? And categorize that? Or no, this is an adverse event. This is the issue with a medicine-making somebody potentially ill, okay? Well, what is that illness? Is that a headache or a throbbing headache? How serious is that? Is that involved in the clinical trial? What drug is that involved with? We will make agents to do that and do those very standard things. And this is an area where I’m enthused because Veeva can lead.

This is where — just like for cloud applications, you got the very specific industry-specific cloud applications could add tremendous value if you went to the last mile and solve the thing. In industry-specific agents, agentic labor, we may be able to go the last mile and make specific agents that just do the thing for life sciences because we’ll go to that last mile and make it work, we may make agents that are better safety case processors and more reliable than humans.

That’s a heck of a lot of work, but we have a structural advantage to do that because we’re deep in life sciences, we have a consulting in life sciences, and we have the applications that those agents can use, it’s the same reason why Claude is getting very good at Claude Code because they have the agent, the coding agent and they have the model, and they have 2 layers. We don’t have a model we use, but we have applications and the agents. So that is a structural advantage.

Veeva’s agentic products will have different pricing depending on the type of agent

Pricing and packaging also vary by agent. Some agents are charged by usage, while others are part of a fixed-price subscription license.

Veeva recently acquired Ostro, which provides conversational AI for brands to provide patients and doctors with immediate, compliant answers; management believes Ostro can be a significant revenue driver for Veeva; Ostro had no material impact on Veeva’s financial results in 2026 Q1 (FY2027 Q1), but accounted for 25% of headcount growth; the buyer of Ostro’s product is the biopharma company, but the user is a healthcare professional or patient; Ostro is a brand engagement platform; management thinks it’s really hard to do what Ostro is doing; management thinks Ostro will be a really significant acquisition for Veeva; management has organised Ostro smartly so it can retain the speed of a startup

In March, we acquired Ostro, the leader in conversational AI for brands to provide patients and doctors with immediate, compliant answers through an easy-to-use chat experience. Ostro operates as a startup within Veeva and is now an important part of our Commercial Cloud. Things are going well, revenue and pipeline are growing as anticipated, and we have an ambitious product roadmap. We believe Ostro can be a significant revenue driver for Veeva and transformative for the industry, fundamentally changing how patients and doctors get information…

…We also acquired Ostro in the quarter, which had an immaterial impact on Q1 financial results and accounted for about 25% of net headcount growth…

…The buyer of Ostro is the biopharma company, the user of Ostro is the health care professional or the patient. So it’s a brand engagement platform for biopharma companies to help HCPs and patients ask questions and get answers instantaneously and do that in a compliant way. That’s very, very hard to do. It’s hard to do that at scale. It’s hard to do it in a compliant way, and that’s exactly what Ostro does…

…It’s going to play a bigger and bigger role in Commercial Cloud over time, and we see it as a really significant acquisition and a potential long-term growth opportunity for us…

…In an operating model for Veeva, we have a notion of the start-up models in the core models. And in the core models, we’re organized functionally like the central sales team, engineering team, things like that. In the startup model, it’s all fully contained under CEO, and we use that either when the market is very different or when the product really needs to evolve. So Ostro is in the start-up model. Everybody who works on Ostro is fully reporting to the CEO of Ostro. There’s guidance and help from other functional areas of Veeva, but it’s — and they’re certainly inroads like, okay, Ostro doesn’t have to use their own master subscription agreement anymore and all that type of stuff. So it operates as a start-up, they can retain its speed, but it has a really smooth ramp up.

Veeva’s management will soon release standard agents and the ability to build custom agents for all Vault applications; management will soon release Veeva Falcon, an agentic platform and for clinical, regulatory, and safety; Veeva Falcon is on track to be released in November 2026; Veeva Falcon will be the first agentic solution for the industry; management recently talked about Veeva Falcon to Veeva’s customer base, and it was very well received; management envisions Veeva Falcon to be replacing jobs that humans used to do; the presence of Falcon means Veeva’s applications need to be headless; agents within Vault applications are meant for human users and to improve the productivity of human users; Veeva Falcon is not a platform for pharmas to build custom agents; the platform for pharmas to build custom agents would be Vault AI or other 3rd-party agentic platforms; nobody is asking for the kind of solution Veeva Falcon presents, but management believes it’s the way to go; management is very positive on Veeva Falcon; Veeva Falcon will be tackling the simplest and highest volume labour, specifically the processing of documentation related to clinical trials, and processing safety cases; management’s still unsure how Falcon will be priced, but they’re toying with the idea of pricing Falcon on a per document or per case basis; management sees Veeva Falcon as being completely accretive to Veeva; management expects small biopharmas to be among the first customers of Veeva Falcon because the small biopharmas are running all their processes on Veeva; Veeva Falcon reports directly to Veeva’s CEO; the kind of labour Veeva Falcon is designed to replace does not involve CROs (contract research organisations), and Veeva Falcon could in fact even benefit CROs

In August, our standard agents and the ability to develop custom agents will be generally available across all Vault applications.

We also announced Veeva Falcon, our agentic platform and standard agents that provide agentic labor for clinical, regulatory, and safety. Many of the processes in these areas are ripe for automation. We are on track with our plan to release Falcon for early adopters in November. Delivering agentic labor in this area will be a first for the industry and the quality and control requirements will be significant. Falcon is a disruptive technology trying to solve a very hard and valuable industry-specific problem. It’s an outstanding fit for Veeva…

…Veeva Summits bring the industry together and are key to driving customer success and product excellence. It was a milestone event as we talked about Falcon to a broad audience for the first time. Falcon was very well received, and customers are excited about the potential to lower costs and increase speed in drug development…

…Falcon specifically is at the agent layer and that’s agentic labor. So fully replacing parts — jobs that people used to do. People who used to do these jobs using our applications, now will deliver the agentic labor to do that. So it’s a big new area for Veeva. It’s something we haven’t done before, and that’s why it’s disruptive. Those agents have to become users of our applications, which means our applications have to become very good in operating at a headless manner. Now at the same time, we have agents inside of the Vault applications. So that’s Vault AI inside of the applications. That’s where when people are actually using the application because there’s definitely things that people still need to do in our applications, that’s where the AI agents can help them do it more efficiently, much like you might use ChatGPT or Gemini at your work, okay, that helps you do it more efficiently…

…For Falcon, the actual effort there is taking the path less traveled. So that’s a platform for us to build and operate standard agents to actually solve the problem for the industry. So it’s not really a platform for customers to develop their custom agents. For custom agents that live inside of our applications, of course, they can use Vault AI for that. For custom agents that are outside the applications, there are many agent building tools, and they will dip into the Veeva applications operating in a headless manner…

…In 2012 for the first time we laid out our first visions for Development Cloud. 2014, they got sharper; in 2016 that really became apparent what we were doing. We’re trying to simplify and standardize and integrate the tech of the development area of life sciences. That’s not anything that anybody asked us for, right? That’s the vision that we have, and that’s not anything that anybody has tried to do before. Falcon is the same thing. It’s the same magnitude of disruptive innovation. It’s not giving tooling to people to design agents. This is to designing and operating the standard agents for the industry rather than the industry having to hire humans for those specific jobs…

…I think Falcon is just going to deliver value. It’s going to be great revenue for Veeva, but it’s going to deliver value far above and beyond that for the industry, and that’s going to allow the industry to grow. It’s a disruptive thing. It’s not an incremental thing or a tool…

…[Question] How are you deciding which labor roles to address or to attack with Falcon agents?

[Answer] I think the most right there ones are actually the simplest and the highest volume. And actually, when you look inside of life sciences, those are the areas where they have a tendency, some of the companies to do some outsourcing today already. So that makes it also — they’re used to outsourcing. Of course, they would outsource that to humans. In Falcon, the first ones we’re looking at are processing of documentation involved with clinical trials, specifically the stuff that comes from clinical sites, the millions and millions, hundreds of million, tens of millions of documents that come from research sites. They need to be collected, inspected for quality, categorized, the metadata pulled out of them, filed in the TMF the right way. So that’s one, the intake and control of documents. Another one is the safety cases, the safety cases that come in, the triage and the categorization and the collection of the safety cases. So those are the 2 main ones, we’ll also take on regulatory health authority correspondences because that’s another high-value one, and there’ll be more…

…[Question] How are you pricing Falcon?

[Answer] You can imagine most likely that Falcon will be charged by the document, most likely. We haven’t fully decided that. You can imagine that safety will be most likely charged by the case. So that’s how that is…

…[Question] On the Veeva Falcon. You’re mentioning the displacement of potential roles at these larger firms. I’m just wondering, is there anything that you would consider timing-wise from an economics perspective. So let’s say, these roles were to move in another direction? Do you think it could potentially cannibalize some of the revenue that you get from those customers?

[Answer] Definitely all accretive because this is not a market we address today. We don’t play in that market today. This is not type of labor or work that we supply. So it’s definitely going to be accretive. And these agents, they need a system of record. You can’t operate them without a system of record. So it definitely doesn’t cannibalize the systems of record…

…Veeva Basics, small biotechs. We continue to win a lot of those that are going on Veeva Basics. And by the way, those will be some of the first consumers of things like Falcon and our other AI solutions…

…Basics are smaller companies, very nimble. Also, they’re running not only our products, but they’re running our processes. So they have an absolute standard configuration of Veeva, where they’re running our processes. So we don’t have to wonder how they have configured Vault or MAAP Vault or done this Vault or with that Vault. They’re running absolute — let’s say, we have over 100 Basics customers in the clinical area, their configuration is exactly the same. How they’re using product is exactly the same. And we operate those systems in a way for the customers. So that’s — if we have our agent working on for one Basics customers, it will work for them all. With the enterprises, the larger companies, our agents have to be a little more adaptive. They have to first go through a phase of, okay, understanding how that customer is using that Vault, testing it out. Okay, I’m going to classify these documents that they’ve previously classified. Do I get the same of what they got. And if so, that’s good. If not, what happened there? Basics is just going to be smoother, very, very smooth…

…Falcon, for example, reports directly to me. This is our first step into digital labor. You can’t — you have to operate that effectively, back when we were the CRM company, way back when before we went public, Vault was this tiny little thing that reported directly to me. Falcon is like that…

…In terms of where can agentic labor play and what can agents do. The best places to do are high-volume repetitive work that actually gets outsourced. So that type of work actually it’s not so much the CROs, it’s other specialized labor providers that do that. So I think this could actually be beneficial for the CROs because that — we can do that lower volume work, which is generally done by the pharma company or a specialized outsourcer. We can do that cheaper, faster, better. That will hopefully allow pharma companies to run more trials, and that’s where the higher margin work is for the CROs.

Veeva’s management believes AI will change the commercial model for pharmas, and Veeva is well-positioned to bring the right solutions; Veeva’s Agentic Call Report in Vault CRM and Ostro help biopharmas capture compliant Commercial Evidence for the first time at scale; there are currently 10 customers live with Vault AI for PromoMats’ Quick Check Agent; management will be focused on commercial content for AI investment to solve the MLR (medical, legal, and regulatory) review bottleneck; management thinks agents on the commercial side will not be a full replacement for field salespeople

While it is early days, AI will fundamentally change the commercial model. This represents a major transformation, and we believe Veeva is well-positioned to help the industry bring the right medicines to more patients through new and better ways of working with AI. With major innovations like the Agentic Call Report in Vault CRM and Ostro’s conversational AI on brand websites, biopharmas are now able to capture compliant Commercial Evidence for the first time at scale. It’s a real breakthrough that allows companies to gain insights and take actions that were simply not possible before AI…

… I am also excited about the progress of Vault AI for PromoMats. We have 10 customers live today for Quick Check Agent, across both small and large biopharma. Commercial content will be a key area of AI investment as we look to solve the MLR content review bottleneck for the industry…

…In commercial, that won’t be — agentic labor there will not be — you’re not going — you’re going to have helper agents that help the field teams do things, but I don’t think you’ll have — you will — you’re not going to replace a field person. That’s about managing relationships, things like that. There may be some things in commercial for example, there’s a medical legal regulatory process that is burdensome and expensive and occupies many parts of people’s time in Life Sciences. I think that can largely be automated, 70% or more with the right agents over time. But the actual field person, I think, it’s going to augment them.

Veeva’s management expects immaterial AI revenue and margin-impact in 2026 (FY2027)

For this year, our overall expectation had been for AI to be fairly immaterial outside of Ostro. And we’re really focused on getting AI live in all of our customer areas, getting the product excellence, getting to customer success. It starts with that deep value creation for customers. So on the margin side, you also don’t see a material impact, Craig. And in Vault AI, where its usage based on tokens. I think we have a pretty good understanding of what that dynamic looks like, and it’s factored into our guidance. But I don’t expect there to be a material impact on margins driven by AI this year.

Veeva is using AI throughout the company, including general-purpose tools and specific tools; Veeva is using Claude Code from Anthropic and finding great efficiency, which has led to Veeva needing to hire less; management thinks the productivity from AI tools, and the need to hire less, outweighs the cost of tokens

We use AI throughout the company, we’ve got general-purpose tools and then also specific tools and major functional areas. Probably the most significant place for using it is around the product because that’s where we spend the most. And so you heard Peter mention earlier, in product engineering, we use Claude Code, and it’s come a long way. So we’re seeing great efficiency from that tool. And I think in general, that means we’ll hire a little less than we would have and accomplish more than we would have and go a little bit faster. But for us, it’s more about productivity and the combination of hiring a little less, accomplishing a little more, we think easily outweighs the token cost, and that’s all factored into our guidance.

Wix (NASDAQ: WIX)

Base44 has reached $150 million of ARR, or annualised recurring revenue (was $100 million in March 2026); Wix Harmony and Base44 can now be accessed within popular AI chatbots such as ChatGPT and Claude; management recently released Superagents inside Base44; Superagents allow users to build and deploy autonomous AI agents without coding; Superagents can run continuously in the background without any manual intervention; Base44 users can interact with their Superagents through popular messaging apps such as WhatsApp and Telegram; Base44 now has better app-design tools; Figma is now integrated with Base44; Base44 is currently incurring significant AI processing and compute costs as usage ramps, but management believes the costs are front-loaded as new Base44 users tend to consume more AI inference bandwidth during their initial build phase; Base44’s user behaviour and cohort quality look positive, with retention improving, and monetisation steadily increasing; management has been lowering inference costs in the core Wix business through optimising 3rd-party models, open source models, and building a proprietary LLM, and management expects to apply the same strategy to Base44’s AI costs; use-cases in Base44 remain wide, but management thinks specialisation will happen over time; some use-cases seen in Base44 are also applicable for business owners on Wix

Base44, which is now the leading AI-powered application creation platform in North America (per Similarweb data) with ~$150 million of ARR as of May…

…Both are now accessible within ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Anthropic’s Claude. Users can type “@Wix” or “@Base44” in these platforms, describe their idea, and a full website or application is created in conversation and managed there too, without any context switching…

…In March, we unveiled Superagents, a new experience inside Base44 that lets anyone build and deploy their own autonomous AI agent simply by describing what they want it to do. Base44 automatically builds the underlying workflows, connects the necessary tools, and deploys the agent. No coding, no configuration and no infrastructure to manage. Once deployed, Superagents run continuously in the background, responding to triggers, schedules, and real-time events, executing tasks without the need for any manual intervention. It can connect to third-party platforms and applications, remember preferences and priorities across conversations, and become more effective over time. Users can also interact with their agents directly through iMessage, WhatsApp and Telegram – wherever they are already messaging…

…Base44 now includes a fully rebuilt set of tools for shaping how an app looks and feels. Users can set colors, typography, and overall style across their entire app from one place, with any change carrying through automatically. Images, documents, and data files can be uploaded to an asset library or generated on the fly, and pulled into any app directly from the visual editor or chat…

…Design screens in Figma, paste the frame link, and Base44 builds a working app on top of it. The layout stays intact, and users go straight from design to a live app…

……Creative Subscriptions non-GAAP gross margin was 80% in Q1’26, down from 84% in Q1’25. Creative Subscriptions non-GAAP gross margin in our core Wix business was stable in the first quarter as AI costs remained minimal while we carefully controlled costs as we scale our platform, particularly Harmony… Creative Subscriptions non-GAAP gross margin was driven by accelerating contribution from Base44, which is incurring significant AI processing and compute costs as demand and usage continues to ramp. We believe these AI costs to be front-loaded as new Base44 users consume more AI inference bandwidth during their initial build phase…

…We also saw positive signs in the user behavior and cohort quality of Base44. Retention is improving as more users are choosing annual subscriptions, either through new purchases or renewals. Monetization is also steadily increasing, resulting in stable TROI even as marketing spend stepped up in the first quarter…

…We have been lowering inference cost of users by optimizing third-party AI model usage, leveraging open source models and most recently building our own LLM to power Harmony. As we apply this strategy to more of our products, particularly Base44, we believe that the large majority of these AI costs will be firmly in our control…

…About the Base44, I think we’re happy actually to say that we’re still using — we’re seeing a very wide variety of use cases. And it’s really — some of it is personal uses, some of it is solopreneurs, some of it is small businesses. And we think that there’s going to be more and more specialization that’s going to go and happen throughout the platform over time as we understand what is — where there is differentiation happen between those different use cases and where everyone can benefit from the generalized platform…

… I think there’s another opportunity that is very interesting, which we’re seeing is that some of the more small business-oriented use cases can also be relevant to applications needed by business owners that on Wix.

Wix’s management thinks the differentiation for website builders is not in the AI models, but in the experiences built around the models, and Wix has the necessary knowhow

As powerful AI models become increasingly accessible across the industry, I believe differentiation will come not from the models themselves, but the experiences built around them. The real value lies in the capabilities layered on top of the models: the backend infrastructure, agent orchestration, tooling, integrations, and everything that comes after turning a prompt into a website or app. With our deep infrastructure, world-class distribution, product expertise and years of technological innovation and market intelligence and understanding, this is where I believe Wix is uniquely positioned to win in today’s AI world.

Wix’s management recently built Wix’s first proprietary large language model (LLM) that’s designed to power Wix Harmony, the company’s first-of-its kind website builder blending visual editing with vibe coding; Wix’s proprietary LLM is faster and has fewer errors when building websites; having its own LLM means Wix can move faster, and operate with lower inference costs; Wix is currently experiencing only tiny benefits from using its own LLM, but management expects the company’s own LLM to drive the company’s profitability over the long run; the LLM is just the first in a broader portfolio of AI models that Wix will release; Wix can build websites with its own LLM at just 5% of the cost of 3rd-party alternatives; management thinks the AI advantage in website building belongs to the most specialised model; Wix Harmony is now in all of Wix-supported languages; Wix Harmony and Base44 can now be accessed within popular AI chatbots such as ChatGPT and Claude; AI has made creating a website easy, but the real work is done after the website is published; despite having its own LLM now, Wix still has the flexibility to use the best 3rd-party models when appropriate; Wix Harmony was rolled out to the company’s main geographies in late-January 2026; management thinks Wix’s own LLM could eventually be used for Base44, but there’s no exact time line; Wix spent only a small sum of money to train its own LLM, so ongoing training costs will also be reasonable

We recently built our first proprietary LLM, purposefully designed to power Wix Harmony – a significant milestone in our innovation journey and a project I am personally very proud of. Thorough A/B testing is showing that our Wix-built model is faster while resulting in fewer errors and significantly better results when applied to building Wix Harmony websites. Having our own model means that we can accelerate the cycle of improvement, which we believe creates a continuous flywheel for our platform that general-purpose models can’t replicate with success.

Importantly, building and relying on our own LLM means significantly lower inference costs that sit completely within our control as we scale the Harmony platform. While the margin benefit is small today, we expect this model to drive profitability over the long term. We expect this to be just the first in a broader portfolio of proprietary AI models across a number of use cases as they become increasingly central to our product roadmap…

…Big LLMs optimize for broad scopes and with limited feedback; we’re optimizing for one thing, every day, with millions of real users building real websites. This gives us full control over our roadmap, reduces dependency on external vendors, and significantly accelerates our iteration cycle. The result is a model that’s faster and more accurate, and we will be able to create beautiful websites that are optimized specifically for our users’ needs at approximately 5% of the cost of third-party alternatives. We believe that the AI advantage won’t go to the biggest model; instead it will go to the most specialized one…

…Wix Harmony is now available in all Wix supported languages…

…AI has made building online simple and anyone can generate a simple good-looking website in minutes. But that’s as far as it goes. The real complexity begins the moment you hit publish. How does it drive engagement? How do you host it, get found on search engines, run your storefront, secure your customers’ data and actually operate a business day-to-day. These are the hard problems, and we’ve been solving them for 20 years through continuous product innovation and user feedback…

…Still, we also have the flexibility to continue to leverage the best third-party models for the right use cases. So we are never constrained…

…Harmony, which was rolled out in late January across our main geographic markets…

…Where can we expect to have the same thing on Base44. The answer is that I don’t have an exact time line. Obviously, it’s a bigger or more complex undertaking than the Harmony one just because it is much more generalized the — the Harmony use case. That being said, it is something we believe and our top engineers are the ones who are dealing with it…

…In terms of the spend on the Harmony LLM and again, we’re not breaking out the exact number, but it’s quite small, okay? These are not like massive research costs and GPU investments that you can consider when you think about big frontier models. This is something that we managed to do at a very reasonable cost, which also means that for us to continue training it and improving it, should not be something that puts any real weight on our expenses.

Wix websites are now optimised with agentic AI

Wix collaborated with Microsoft to enable users to connect their sites to NLWeb directly from their Wix Dashboards, making Wix sites agentic-optimized. Now available through the Wix SEO & GEO Dashboard, the integration allows structured, continuously updated site data to be queried by AI systems using the ASK protocol, delivering accurate, context-aware answers in real time.

Wix has ramped up the use of AI in its customer-care organisation for the last 3-plus years, and this has led to a 40% decrease in headcount since 2022, while maintaining or improving service; management is shifting Wix’s R&D (research & development) to be more aligned with Base44’s

We have ramped the integration of AI over the past 3-plus years. This has allowed us to optimize headcount, which has decreased by more than 40% since 2022, while maintaining or even improving in some areas, our services to users…

…We are working to shift our Wix R&D structure to align more closely with that of Base 44, which has been a leader in leveraging AI to drive productivity since day one. We are learning from them and working to implement those same operating principles at Wix. As we execute on this strategy with good line of sight, we expect faster output will more than balance out the cost of AI usage across our organization.

Wix’s Partners are using other AI platforms as well as Wix; the Partners are generally happy with Wix Harmony, but are also pointing out specific areas for improvement; a decent amount of Wix’s Partners are also using Base44

I also think in terms of what they’re using, they are using some AI platforms. By the way, some of them are using Harmony and are very happy with it on one end. And also they’re pointing out to us specific holes, if you may, or missing capabilities that are obviously there because we build Harmony for self-creators and not in the view of partners, but it gives us great visibility into what kind of innovation, what do we need to do next on the partner side in order to make them more successful and happier…

…I’m not going to share percentages, but I can say that we are seeing like there is a decent amount of partners’ usage on Base44. So it’s not marginal.

Wix’s management has no current plans to change the pricing strategy for the core Wix product

I think on Wix at this stage, we think the current structure is the right one. Obviously, if at some point, we introduce something which is very intense on token consumption, then we’ll have to charge for that as well. But at least for now, that’s not the case.

What We’re Reading (Week Ending 24 May 2026)

The best articles we’ve read in recent times on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.

Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!

Here are the articles for the week ending 24 May 2026:

1. The end of the resource exponential – Brandon Carl

Financial analysts are currently engaged in a collective exercise in ruler-drawing. By mapping the trajectory of compute spending and GPU sales, they have constructed a future that is essentially a larger version of the present. In this view, the path to artificial intelligence is a matter of pure capital expenditure. If $100 billion buys a certain level of reasoning, then $1 trillion must buy ten times as much. It is an investment thesis built on extrapolation.

History, however, is not linear. In any technological cycle, the most dangerous moment is when the market begins to treat the status quo as a permanent law. Today’s AI logic—that hardware scale is the primary lever—is less a rule of physics and more a temporary workaround for inefficient architecture. As investors calculate the return on ever-larger clusters, they are ignoring a more fundamental lesson: what is built today is rarely what defines tomorrow.

The shift from brute force to elegance is not just likely; it is a mathematical necessity. Much of modern AI is built on transformer architectures that exhibit quadratic complexity. Double the input, and the requirements for compute and memory grow fourfold. Quadratic consumption of any limited resource will eventually consume everything. Efficiency is not an optional optimization; it is a condition for survival…

…This does not mean the end of the massive GPU cluster, but it does mean that algorithmic efficiency, rather than just raw silicon, will increasingly solve resource shortages. As architectural pivots reduce the dependence on brute-force scaling, the “mix” of hardware required by a data centre five years from now will look nothing like the procurement lists of today.

The risk for investors is to over-index on “selling the shortage” based on current constraints. Subsidizing the construction of yesterday’s architecture is a recipe for stranded assets. In the history of technology, the greatest returns have rarely accrued to those who simply bought the most hardware, but to those who understood how the math was changing. Ideas travel much faster than silicon.

2.AI Chip Mania Sows Seeds of Its Own Destruction – James Mackintosh

Memory chips are a perfect example of a highly cyclical industry. Heavy investment is required to build a fabrication plant, or fab. When demand rises, it takes several years for supply to catch up, during which prices and profits jump. Those high profits encourage CEOs to expand supply. And the high fixed costs encourage producers to run fabs at full capacity—even when supply overshoots demand. The cycle turns when excess supply pushes down prices and profits plunge, as they did in 2022-23.

Already the high profitability has encouraged heavy capital spending. Micron is spending $150 billion to build or expand fabs in New York, Idaho and Virginia, and new Korean fabs are opening…

…The risk of a downturn is embedded in Micron’s valuation. Two weeks ago it was the S&P’s third-cheapest stock measured by price to forward earnings, and it’s still at under 10 times, tame for a highflying stock. That doesn’t make it cheap, though. It just means investors recognize that the boom times in memory chips never last.

History shows how this works. In the last cycle Micron stock peaked at the start of 2022, with the forward P/E at just nine times, ahead of a halving in the shares that year. The stock bottomed out and subsequently doubled after the loss was baked into predictions…

…The biggest risk is impossible to quantify: AI technology could become far more efficient in its use of memory, meaning data centers need less of it. Memory stocks took a hit in March when Alphabet researchers published a paper showing dramatic improvements in memory efficiency, but have recovered. Large language models are an immature technology, and engineering improvements for specialized data centers should be expected—but how big they are and when they come is unknowable in advance.

Other risks apply to the whole AI supply chain: Data-center plans may be scaled back, AI uptake prove slower than hoped, or a political backlash may hinder expansion. All are plausible; none are considered that serious by the AI bulls driving stock prices.

A final risk is that supercharged profits attract new rivals to enter the market. For now, that seems unlikely in the superfast memory Micron makes, but it’s already happening with other highly profitable chips used in AI.

3. The toll booths of lending – Michael Fritzell

To manage risks, banks and companies gather information on their counterparties. And one way to do so is to buy data from so-called “credit bureaus”, also known as “credit reporting agencies”.

These credit bureaus gather information on borrowers’ creditworthiness. These include consumers, corporate borrowers, and trade counterparties. The data is then used to support lending decisions, ensuring that each lender is comfortable with their exposures…

…On the corporate side, credit bureaus collect all sorts of data on private businesses: business registration numbers, legal addresses, ownership data, the executive leadership, name changes, etc. And more importantly, they collect data on revenues, profitability, and leverage from public filings, interviews, payment data, etc. They also cooperate with debt collectors to understand whether each business has had payment issues in the past.

All this data then ends up in credit reports, which you can purchase for US$150 each. Historically, these credit bureaus made money by selling credit reports a la carte. But today, the entire industry has moved towards subscriptions that generate much higher-quality, recurring, and sustainable revenue. If you’re an ongoing subscriber, you’ll get alerts if there are any changes to the creditworthiness of any particular counterparty…

…Buyers of corporate credit data tend to be small- and medium-sized enterprises that want to know whether they extend favourable credit terms to their counterparties. Or banks that want to know how to extend credit to. The local Asian credit bureaus have almost impenetrable market positions, as they’ve gathered detailed information on millions of businesses. And the reports can be purchased for very little money, while costing almost nothing to produce. No serious lender would skip a US$50 credit check before extending a half-million loan…

…And because collecting consumer data is sensitive, it is highly regulated and therefore protected. The buyers of credit data tend to be financial institutions that want to know whether to extend a mortgage or consumer loans.

There are clear network effects: in many cases, credit bureaus get data on consumer borrowers from their bank customers, who willingly provide the information in exchange for data on other banks’ borrowers. So the bureaus almost become central exchanges that become difficult to displace.

On the other hand, the heavy regulation also means that pricing power tends to be limited. So it’s a scale business, with significant operating leverage if credit growth for whatever reason starts to accelerate.

And this is the exact bull case for Asia’s credit bureaus: the credit penetration in this part of the world remains low, especially in emerging Asian nations like Indonesia and the Philippines.

4. 18% IRR for 57 Years – Joe Raymond

George Batten founded the Batten Company in New York in 1891. At the time, advertising was mostly about placing ads in newspapers.

In 1919, Barton, Durstine & Osborn emerged, focused more on messaging, copywriting, and persuasion.

The two merged in 1928 to form Batten, Barton, Durstine & Osborn.

Over the next several decades, BBDO became a core player on Madison Avenue, helping large corporations build brands as radio and television expanded their reach.

BBDO International started trading over the counter in 1968…

…As Larry recalls:

“I came to realize advertising was a royalty business. If you had a consumer product, you needed to advertise. And you needed to use an ad agency like BBD&O. I viewed it as a royalty on consumer spending.”…

…He paid less than 8x earnings for a business generating 20% return on equity, growing in the low-double-digits, and yielding 7.5%…

…BBDO grew revenues from $49 million to $155 million from 1969 to 1979 (12% CAGR).

Net income tripled from $4 million to $12 million. Shares outstanding declined from 123 million to 106 million. As a result, EPS quadrupled from 3 cents to 12 cents (15% CAGR).

The P/E multiple ended the period at about the same 7.6x it started.

The stock went from 25 cents in 1969 to 85 cents in 1979 while also paying out 46 cents per share of dividends.

Including dividends, the IRR for his first decade of ownership was 20%…

…EPS over the 11 years from 1979 to 1990 grew from $0.12 to $0.25 (7% CAGR) while paying out a cumulative $0.99 per share of dividends. Not spectacular performance, but not terrible either.

The stock started the decade at $0.85 and finished at $2.73. Thus, Larry had a 10-bagger in his first 20 years of ownership, plus dividends worth nearly 6x his purchase price.

1979 to 1990 was a mediocre stretch for earnings growth. But dividends were consistently paid and the multiple expanded 45% from 7.6x to 11.0x. The result was a 17% IRR for the 11-year period…

…Like many other stocks (and the market averages), 2000 to 2010 represented a “lost decade” for Omnicom shareholders.

The business itself grew at a decent rate–EPS compounded at 8% and $5.48 of cumulative dividends per share were paid.

Counteracting these factors was a 50% reduction in the multiple. 32x in 2000 fell to 15x in 2010. The net result was a 1% IRR for the decade.

Operationally, the 2000s didn’t look that different than the 1970s (8% EPS growth in the former vs 7% in the latter). Yet the 1970s produced a 17% annualized return while the 2000s yielded only 1%.

Such is the power of valuation. The same quality business can deliver wildly different results depending on the price paid. In this case, paying 8x earnings resulted in an annual return of 17% for a decade while paying 32x delivered almost nothing for 10 years….

…BBDO was an ideal buy and hold investment in the 1960s and 1970s.

The economics were attractive (20%+ ROE) and growth prospects solid (decades of global advertising growth ahead). Capital allocation was sensible (small bolt-on acquisitions, share repurchases, and dividends), and the valuation was cheap (sub 10x earnings).

$10,000 invested in 1969 and held through today would be worth $3.2 million, with an additional $1.7 million of dividends received as well.

5. The American Rebellion Against AI Is Gaining Steam – Amrith Ramkumar, Katherine Blunt, and Lindsay Ellis

Delivering a commencement address at the University of Arizona, Schmidt told students the “technological transformation” wrought by artificial intelligence will be “larger, faster and more consequential than what came before.” Like some other graduation speakers mentioning AI, Schmidt was met with a chorus of boos.

In one poll after another in recent weeks, respondents have overwhelmingly voiced concerns about AI, a challenge to claims by industry executives that their technology would gain popularity by improving people’s lives…

…Pollsters and historians say the souring of public opinion is all but unprecedented in its speed. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen something intensify this quickly,” Gregory Ferenstein, who conducted a recent poll with researchers at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley, said of the backlash…

…Voters in Festus, Mo., ousted four city council members a week after they approved a $6 billion data center. Dozens of communities in states from Maine to Arizona are trying to ban new data centers. Some 360,000 Americans are in Facebook groups opposed to the facilities, roughly quadruple the number from December, figures from organizations fighting the AI build-out show…

…AI has risen in importance most quickly among 39 political issues studied by polling firm Blue Rose Research in the past year, though it still trails priorities including the economy, immigration and foreign policy…

…But all over the country, community-level organizations have been succeeding in blocking data-center projects. Local opposition blocked or delayed at least 48 projects valued at some $156 billion last year, according to Data Center Watch, an organization tracking the trend. A record of 20 were canceled in the first quarter of the year because of local backlash, figures from climate-media outlet and data provider Heatmap show. Dozens more are currently facing similar obstacles on top of obstructions because of permitting snafus and equipment shortages.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have a vested interest in Meta Platforms (parent of Facebook). Holdings are subject to change at any time.

Divergence of Returns In The Index

Some companies have fallen hard.

The S&P 500 index is up about 8% in US dollar terms so far in 2026. That’s a decent return for less than half a year. The index is also on track to surpass its historical 10% annual return for the year.

Similarly, the tech-heavy NASDAQ index is up 13% year-to-date.

Both indexes are also sitting near an all-time high.

Despite this, there is an interesting phenomenon happening.

Usually when the indexes are at an all-time high, you’d expect to see most companies to be up year-to-date. But that’s not the case this year

Although the indexes have performed well, nearly half of the indexes’ components are currently underwater for the year.

Of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500 index, 218 are negative for the year, while 45 of the NASDAQ’s 101 component stocks are down. The depth of some of the drawdowns are also quite steep.

Of the 218 stocks that are down in the S&P 500, 122 are currently more than 10% below where they started the year. And 56 are 20% or more underwater for the year. Meanwhile, more than 20% of the NASDAQ components are down more than 20% in 2026 thus far.

This has created a really interesting scenario where despite the indexes being near all-time highs, there are pockets of the stock market, even in the large cap arena, that are spotting materially cheaper valuations than they did just five months ago.

Hunting for value

Lower share prices naturally mean lower valuations and could be a good hunting ground for value investors.

With the index at all time highs, searching amidst beaten-down individual names could be a great way to gain exposure to the market.

The list of stocks that are down year-to-date include some well known companies such as FICO, Lululemon, Tractor Supply, and Accenture to name a few. The four listed companies are down 35%, 43%, 39% and 37% respectively this year.

This being said, just because a company is trading at a lower stock price does not automatically make it good value. Even seemingly stable companies can run ahead of fundamentals and corrections may just be stock prices coming down to more sane valuations.

Previously “deep-moat” companies can also run into trouble or face disruption, as is the fear surrounding software-as-a-service companies as they are potentially facing disruption from artificial intelligence.

Nevertheless, as an investor, seeing that there is a substantial list of big cap stocks that are trading down for the year does excite me.

Why is the stock down?

When hunting for value, it is important to understand why the stock is down. There could be a legitimate reason for a stock to fall.

For instance, FICO, the company behind the FICO credit score that banks in the US use to assess whether to provide loans to someone, is facing a potential new competitor in the form of Vantage Score which could lead to market share losses in the future. (Vantage Score has existed for many years, but there are recent regulatory changes that have eaten away at FICO’s previous monopolistic status.)

A stock could also be down simply because its price had run ahead of its fundamentals.

Take Palantir for instance. The company just reported stellar revenue growth of 85% in the first quarter of 2026 and is guiding for revenue growth of more than 100% for 2026.

Yet the stock price is down 25% year-to-date. This could simply be because Palantir was trading at an overly expensive valuation of 100 times its 2026 free cash flow guidance. With the aforementioned year-to-date decline, Palantir now trades at a more reasonable but still expensive 74 times its 2026 free cash flow guidance.

Happy hunting

Although there are companies that are facing challenges and so have stock prices that are down for a reason, there are potentially also companies that may be mispriced after a steep drawdown.

This could provide a nice entry point for patient investors who are willing to ride out the negative sentiment and potential downward momentum.

It is also a great way to enter the market if you are not keen to buy directly into the index which is trading at an all-time high price.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I don’t have a vested interest in any company mentioned. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

What We’re Reading (Week Ending 17 May 2026)

The best articles we’ve read in recent times on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.

Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!

Here are the articles for the week ending 17 May 2026:

1. A Government Debt Crisis? – Ben Carlson

One of my favorites is the 1972 Time Magazine cover story:

This sounds like it could have been written today:

Debt service is now the third highest public expense, exceeded only by spending for defense and education; most of the money goes to banks, which are the major buyers of bonds that governments at all levels sell to cover their deficits. Moreover, debt functions as a wrong-way income redistribution device, channeling tax money that is paid in large part by the poor and the middle class into the pockets of wealthy holders of trust accounts or stock in banks.

When this cover was published, government debt was roughly $430 billion.

Today it’s fast approaching $40 trillion in total…

…The Wall Street Journal shows that publicly held debt to GDP is now 100% for the first time since WWII..

…Here’s the trillion dollar question — why have none of the government debt crisis predictions come to fruition?…

There are two big mistakes people make when they predict a catastrophe from U.S. government debt levles:

1. Conflating U.S. government debt with household debt. Government debt is not like a mortgage that needs to be paid back. As long as the economy keep growing, debt levels will likely keep rising.1 Plus, the U.S. government has the ability to print the global reserve currency. You can’t print more dollar bills in your basement.

2. The government’s liabilities are someone else’s assets. Treasuries are bonds owned by pensions, insurance companies, fund managers, and households. It’s the largest, most liquid bond in the world and there isn’t an alternative…

…So what would make me worry about government debt levels?

The biggest risk of large deficits and government spending is inflation…

…Continuously rising interest rates would also be cause for concern…

…Another concern is the fact that interest expenses are becoming a larger share of the government’s budget…

…Interest expenses now exceed the defense budget.

The good news is that interest expense as a percentage of GDP is at 1980s levels.

The bad news is that it has risen like a rocket and rates were a lot higher back then…

…Is there a line in the sand where a government debt crisis automatically kicks in?

No one knows.

2. China’s $3 Trillion of Hidden Bad Debt Prolongs Economic Pain – Bloomberg News

By any measure, Tom Hu should be in default on a $730,000 bank loan for his plastics business in China. He barely brings in enough revenue to pay expenses and can’t cover the debt costs.

Yet rather than calling in the loan, his bank lets him defer payments — keeping him afloat, while avoiding another past-due loan on its books…

…Stories like Hu’s are playing out across China as banks grapple with a growing pile of bad debt. It’s impossible to quantify the true extent of the problem, though most economists say the ratio of bad loans is significantly higher than the 1.5% official rate. One analyst at Absolute Strategy Research in London pegs it at about 10%, which would mean a staggering $3 trillion in loans that should be classified as past due are not. Others say it could be double that amount…

…The apparent stability of the official bad loan rate is all the more surprising given that the economy has experienced a major property collapse and posted the slowest nominal growth outside Covid since the 1970s. In March, China lowered its 2026 growth target to between 4.5% and 5% — its least ambitious goal since 1991.

Regulators have taken note. Despite seemingly strong capital buffers and stable NPL ratios, officials have moved to bolster the nation’s six biggest banks with more than $100 billion in fresh capital…

…The primary culprit for the surge in bad loans is a mountain of credit extended to companies whose earnings are insufficient to cover interest payments. About 10% of listed non-financial firms have failed to cover interest payments from their earnings before interest and tax for three consecutive years, according to Absolute Strategy Research. As a result, the non-performing loan ratio is probably closer to 10% than 1.5%, according to Adam Wolfe, an emerging markets economist at the firm…

…China’s official NPL ratio has always been a bit of a mystery. In good times and bad, it’s rarely wavered much from 1.5%, and most economists say it greatly understates the true stress in the system. The figure captures only loans officially classified as “substandard,” “doubtful,” or “loss.”

In reality, the classification is often a subjective assessment and banks have different internal criteria. A much larger pool of troubled credit remains in the “special mention” — those that may have already become overdue but yet to be categorized as nonperforming — or “normal” categories, thanks to an aggressive use of leniency known as forbearance.

Existing rules stipulate that when repayment on a loan is overdue by more than 90 days and the borrower can’t fully repay the amount, it should be marked as nonperforming.

Economists including Wolfe estimate that about 40% of loans are either eligible or already in some sort of forbearance program, where banks are strongly discouraged from seeking repayment or recognizing losses…

…In other words, rather than cracking down on deadbeat borrowers, China’s banks are encouraged to cut them some slack. Regulators have for years urged the big banks to keep their reported bad loan ratio under 2%, according to people familiar with the guidance.

With the forbearance policy — a legacy of Covid support programs that’s been extended to property developers and other firms — Beijing is signaling its desire to maintain financial stability. It wants to avoid a rash of bank failures that would follow a surge in reported bad credits and company defaults.

A leniency policy for small businesses that was introduced during the pandemic was extended in 2024 to encourage banks to roll over loans for companies enduring temporary difficulties. This policy is effective until late next year, and applies to 9.4 trillion yuan ($1.38 trillion) worth of loans, according to officials.

As a result, banks routinely roll over maturing loans, extend repayment periods, or allow interest to be capitalized to avoid triggering NPL recognition. Local governments also exert pressure on lenders to maintain stability by avoiding cuts to risk classifications on loans tied to sensitive sectors. Those include property developers, local government debt and small businesses in weaker regions, according to a dozen bankers interviewed by Bloomberg News…

…All this leniency comes at a cost. Financial resources are trapped in unprofitable and even inactive firms, hindering banks’ ability to promote growth in healthy businesses. Overall loan growth is slowing significantly after fixed-asset investment experienced an unprecedented contraction last year…

…Chinese banks are also accelerating write-offs and transfers of bad assets. Lenders have disposed of more than 3 trillion yuan of non-performing assets a year since 2020, with the total rising to roughly 3.8 trillion yuan in 2024, the highest on record.

Banks have stepped up transfers of NPL portfolios to asset management companies, which typically hoover up bad assets in China. Still, these firms entrust collection back to the originating banks in many cases, according to people familiar with the matter. The funds used to purchase bad loans largely come from the banks, meaning the risks aren’t fully removed from the financial system.

3. The Inference Shift – Ben Thompson

Specifically, coding with LLMs requires a human in the loop. It’s the human that defines what is to be coded, checks the work, commits the pull request, etc.; it’s not hard to envision a future, however, where all of this is completely handled by machines. This will apply to agentic work broadly: the true power of agents will not be that they do work for humans, but rather that they do work without human involvement at all.

This, by extension, will mean that the likely best approach to solving agentic inference will look a lot different than answer inference. The most important aspect for answer inference is token speed; the most important aspect for agentic inference, however, is memory. Agents need context, state, and history. Some of that will live as active KV cache; some will live in host memory or SSDs; much of it will live in databases, logs, embeddings, and object stores. The important point is that agentic inference will be less about GPUs answering a question and more about the memory hierarchy wrapped around a model.

Critically, this articulation of an agentic-specific memory hierarchy implies a necessary trade-off of speed for capacity. Here’s the thing, though: lower speed isn’t nearly as important a consideration if there isn’t a human in the loop. If an agent is waiting around for a job that is being run overnight, the agent doesn’t know or care about the user experience impact; what is most important is being able to accomplish a task, and if entirely new approaches to memory make that possible, then delays are fine.

Meanwhile, if delays are fine, then all of the focus on pure compute power and high-bandwidth memory seems out of place: if latency isn’t the top priority, then slower and cheaper memory — like traditional DRAM, for example — makes a lot more sense. And if the entire system is mostly waiting on memory, then chips don’t need to be as fast as the cutting edge either. This represents a profound shift in future architectures, but it also doesn’t mean that current architectures are going away:

Training will continue to matter, and Nvidia’s current architecture, including high-speed compute, large amounts of high-bandwidth memory, and high-speed networking, will likely continue to dominate.
Answer inference will be a meaningful market, albeit a relatively small one, and speed from chips like Cerebras or Groq (I explained how Nvidia is deploying Groq’s LPUs here) will be very useful.
Agentic inference will gradually unbundle the GPU, which alternates between stranding high-bandwidth memory (during the prefill process) and stranding compute (during the decode process), in favor of increasingly sophisticated memory hierarchies dominated by high capacity and relatively lower cost memory types, with “good enough” compute; indeed, if anything it will be the speed of CPUs for things like tool use that will matter more than the speed of GPUs…

…To date the invocation of “scaling with compute” has implicitly meant Nvidia bullishness. However, much of Nvidia’s relative advantage to date has been a function of latency: Nvidia chips have fast compute, but keeping that compute busy has required big investments in ever-expanding HBM memory and networking. If latency isn’t the key constraint, however, then Nvidia’s approach seems less worth paying a premium for…

…China, meanwhile, for all of its lack of leading edge compute, has everything it needs for agentic inference: fast-enough (but not leading-edge) GPUs, fast-enough (but not leading-edge) CPUs, DRAM, hard drives, etc. The challenge, of course, is compute for training; it’s also possible that answer inference is more important for national security, at least when it comes to military applications.

4. 50 Learnings from the War in Iran – Tomas Pueyo

Missile and drone launching can be dramatically curtailed, because you can track where they’re launched from and destroy that.

But they’re very hard to fully eliminate. This is the beginning of aerial drone warfare. It suggests it will be super important in the future as an asymmetric weapon: Countries can produce drones in a decentralized way and launch them from many different, constantly changing places.

The other way in which drones and missiles can be intercepted is at the destination. Israel has proven that this can work quite well: Iran has been unable to cause critical damage in the country despite trying over and over again…

…Iran’s entire fleet was destroyed in a matter of days (Ukraine did something similar over the last few years, virtually wiping out Russia’s fleet in the Black Sea).

This marks the end of naval warfare as we know it. Few countries will invest in a full traditional naval force anymore…

…Israel and the US blew up a lot of the command chain, but they couldn’t have done that just with airplanes. They needed intelligence, satellites, cyber penetration, AI, amazing communications, and fast command decisions. Doing all of these steps well and integrating them seamlessly is beyond the capability of most countries today…

…For the first time in history, Israel deployed an Iron Dome system in a foreign country—the UAE—manned by Israeli soldiers. This is unprecedented: Israel defending Arabs against other Muslims!…

…Iran finally executed their biggest threat, which gave them lots of leverage in negotiations: They closed the Strait of Hormuz.

It wasn’t clear that this was a threat they could actually follow through with. But it is. They closed it.

They did so even without air supremacy or a naval force. This is very counterintuitive! It turns out you can use small boats and drones to close a big international highway…

…Although US opponents have more incentives to de-dollarize, one thing is to want it and the other to succeed. The dollar has actually risen during the war, and its position as a reserve currency hasn’t changed.

5. An Ode to Restraint: Lessons from the Tim Cook Legacy! – Aswath Damodaran

If you were to create a profile of Tim Cook, the manager, based upon the choices that he has made at Apple during his tenure as CEO, two very divergent views emerge. To his admirers, his actions on some fronts (initiating dividends, massive stock buybacks, borrowing money) and inaction on other fronts (no big acquisitions, diffidence on AI investments), represent an exercise in discipline and restraint, preserving the company’s crown jewel (the iPhone) and fending off the bankers and consultants, with their false promises. To his critics, and there are quite a few, Cook’s caution has cost Apple its disruptor status, when it could have used its ample cash reserves to buy its way or invest in into almost every new business that has bloomed in the last fifteen years. In fact, they point to chances that Apple has had to buy some of the biggest stars in the market, from Tesla and Netflix more than a decade ago to Anthropic, Mistral and Perplexity in more recent years.

It is impossible to argue that one side is right and the other side wrong, but it is undeniable that both pathways (the restrained pathway that Apple adopted and the more aggressive pathway that it could have taken) include trade offs. It is true that Apple’s restraint has led it to miss out on some of the biggest trends in technology over the last decade, but it has also avoided the overpayment that is so common with high profile acquisitions of big companies. The argument that Apple would be worth a lot more today if it had bought Netflix or Tesla a decade ago falls flat for two reasons. The first is the selection bias in picking two companies that, in hindsight, have emerged as winners, when in fact there were at least a dozen other worse-performing companies that were also on Apple’s radar. The second is the presumption that companies like Tesla or Netflix would have been just as successful, owned by Apple, as they were as stand alone enterprises. The clash of corporate cultures that would have ensued if Apple had bought either Tesla, a company that reinvents its business narrative every few hours, or Netflix, an entity that makes content in quantity with the hope that some it sticks, would have been epic, with the risk that both Apple and its acquired target would have gone down in flames.

More generally, though, the question of whether you want a visionary or a disciplined business builder at the top of a firm is not one that has an easy answer, since it depends on the firm in question. In my work on corporate life cycles, I focus on the management skills that are needed most in a company, based upon where it is the life cycle, and that may help address the choice between vision and restraint:…

…With young companies, vision dominates, as managers work to sway investors, employees and nascent customers that their product or service will find a market. As the vision takes hold, converting it into commercial products and services requires trading off some portions of vision for pragmatism, in the interest of getting the business going. As products and services find demand among customers, business building becomes a key difference-maker, with the grunt work of marketing, production facilities and supply chains coming into play. Assuming that you have made it through these three stages, the trade offs of scaling up come into focus, and as you hit market limits, success depends on being opportunistic in finding new products and markets, but only if they exist. In corporate middle age, pathways to easy growth, especially at scale, become difficult to find, and to the extent that value comes from moats and core products, playing defense against competitors takes priority. Finally, in decline, a phase that no company ever wants to enter, but is inevitable at some point, you need to be willing to shrink a firm, shutting down businesses that no longer deliver value and selling other assets to high bidders.

Given these very divergent management functions, it should come as no surprise that there is no prototype for the perfect CEO, McKinsey and Harvard Business School blueprints notwithstanding.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have a vested interest in Apple and Netflix. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

More Of The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1)

A collection of quotes on artificial intelligence, or AI, from the management teams of US-listed technology companies in the 2026 Q1 earnings season.

Last week, I published The Latest Thoughts From American Technology Companies On AI (2026 Q1). In it, I shared commentary in earnings conference calls for the first quarter of 2026, from the leaders of US-listed technology companies that I follow or have a vested interest in, on the topic of AI and how the technology could impact their industry and the business world writ large.

2023 Q1 – here and here
2023 Q2 – here and here
2023 Q3 – here and here
2023 Q4 – here and here
2024 Q1 – here and here
2024 Q2 – here and here
2024 Q3 – here and here
2024 Q4 – here, here, and here
2025 Q1 – here and here
2025 Q2 – here and here
2025 Q3 – here, here, and here
2025 Q4 – here, here, here, and here

With that, here are the latest commentary, in no particular order:

Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB)

AI is now writing nearly 60% of the code Airbnb’s engineers produce, 2x higher than the industry average; AI code-writing is helping Airbnb ship more features faster and deliver better experiences for guests and hosts; management thinks AI makes companies move faster; management thinks AI requires a company’s employees to be hands-on; management is seeing many of the company’s design managers and engineering managers return to coding with the help of Claude Code

Nearly 60% of the code our engineers produce is now written by AI, which we estimate is about twice the industry average. That means our teams are shipping more features and iterating more quickly. But it’s not just about speed, it’s about delivering a better experience for our guests and hosts…

…AI, I think we should think of as an accelerant to everything. And we can think of it as a disruptive technology. I actually think of it more as an accelerating technology. I think the #1 characteristic of AI is speed. It just speeds every single thing up.

I also think it makes — it requires everyone to be more hands-on and requires everyone to be more nimble and more adaptive to change. I think one of the benefits of the way Airbnb is run is that — and I think there was a term that was coined. Paul Graham, Founder Mode based on a talk I gave, but it’s really this notion that leaders should be hands on. I do not think there’s going to be as much of a role for pure people managers. Said differently, 30,000 feet hands-off managers. I think everyone is going to have to be much more hands-on, much more in the details of the company and all the data. I think now data inside a company is completely democratized. You don’t need to inquire with the data scientists to get data, we all have self-serve dashboards.

I’m seeing like many of our design managers and engineering managers going back to coding or using Claude Code.

Airbnb’s AI assistant now solves more than 40% of issues that guests face, up from 33% in 2025 Q4 and at a significantly faster pace; Airbnb’s AI assistant has helped to reduce cost per booking by 10% year-on-year in 2026 Q1; it’s really difficult to use AI for customer service; management believes that Airbnb’s 40% rate of using AI to solve customer issues is industry-leading

When guests contact us through our AI assistant, over 40% of issues are now resolved without a human agent. And this is up from about 1/3 in Q4 with significantly faster resolution time. We’ve seen the cost per booking decrease about 10% year-over-year in Q1, and we expect to see more of this as we improve AI customer support this year…

…We want to focus on the hardest problem in AI, which we thought was customer service. The reason why is the stakes are high, you have — you cannot hallucinate, you have to answer things very, very quickly because they are calling and they have problems. You have to be multilingual, often in the same conversation because sometimes guests and hosts don’t speak the same language. You have to adjudicate very difficult things. You have to escalate to human accurately, especially if it’s timely or there’s a trust and safety incident. And you have to deal with personally identifiable information that means that you have to be able to protect people’s data, you have to be able to read and train based on nearly 100 policies, tens of thousands of evolving conversations and look at like millions of data points of how a prior case was adjudicated to be able to answer correctly…

…Over 40% of people connect with our AI assistant self-solve. And I believe it’s, by far, the best AI self-solve in all of travel. I’m pretty confident of that.

Airbnb’s management thinks the ultimate search experience in Airbnb in the AI paradigm will be deep personalisation; Airbnb knows details about its users, which makes deep personalisation possible; management thinks this is similar to what all e-commerce sites will look like eventually; management’s AI strategy for search starts at the bottom of the funnel, unlike competitors; Airbnb now has AI summaries in its listings page; Airbnb is using AI for matching; management is currently testing AI search in Airbnb

I think the ultimate, like, paradigm is not this tab versus co-mingle inventory. I believe that’s a pre-AI paradigm. I think post an AI paradigm that we’re moving towards and this relates in a second to AI search is deep personalization, understanding every user, every member. And I just want to remind everyone listening that 100% of people who booked have an account, and they have to have a verified ID. You cannot book as a guest. You have to have account, you have to be a member of the community. Therefore, we know something about you. We can infer a lot, not only about what you’re clicking on the site, but all of your past booking activities…

…We have hundreds of millions of reviews on Airbnb. And one of the things our guests told us is when they get to an Airbnb, it’s great when they see like 100 reviews, it’s awesome, but they don’t have time to read all 100 reviews. So we now have AI summaries. And AI summaries are really great. We have filters, we have AI summaries. We’re now using AI for matching. AI is really helping our search ranking and our relevance…

…Finally, it’s top of funnel, which you would call AI search. This is top of funnel. And this is what we’re currently testing.

Airbnb’s management thinks that a company needs to be really good at technology, data, and infrastructure in order to be good at AI; management has been cleaning up Airbnb’s data for the last few years to prepare for AI

When you break AI under the hood, you realize that you need — in order to be good at AI, you need to be really good at technology, foundational. You need to be really good data and infrastructure. So what we have been doing over the last few years is really getting our data warehouse really, really clean because your AI is only as good as your data.

Airbnb has an AI-native executive running its technology stack, which management believes is the only example of its kind within the travel industry

I mentioned in our last earnings call, we hired Ahmad, our CTO, who was the leader of the Meta LLaMa model. So we are probably one of the only technology companies in the world certainly only in travel that has an AI-native person running as the entire technology stack.

Airbnb’s management is currently experimenting with the best ways to implement AI in the business; management thinks nobody has figured out AI for travel e-commerce yet, even though ChatGPT traffic converts on Airbnb at a higher rate than Google traffic, for 5 reasons, namely (1) travel e-commerce is photo-forward, whereas AI chatbots are text-based, (2) chatbots do not allow users to directly manipulate search results, (3) chatbots do not allow easy comparison between a wide variety of options, (4) chatbots are not multiplayer, and (5) chatbots are not map-native; management thinks AI is a risk to Airbnb, but it’s also an opportunity; management foresees a lot of AI-focused innovation from Airbnb in 2027

We are essentially piloting a variety of different ways to use AI, whether it’s in the search box, whether it’s once you search, interrupting on the search, it’s the filter panel, once you book a trip. So we’re trying a lot of different things. We’re really in the exploration, research development mode…

…I don’t think anyone figured out AI for travel or e-commerce yet. Let me use an example, ChatGPT. Last year, ChatGPT announced the creation or of third-party apps. And then this past March, they shut that project down. And one of the things we noticed is that while ChatGPT is — traffic converts higher than Google traffic when it’s sent to Airbnb, we think the design of a chatbot fundamentally as its currently constructed today does not work for travel e-commerce. There’s essentially four problems.

The first problem with the chatbot is there’s too much text. Chatbot are LLMs, large language models. They’re language. And most of e-commerce is not language forward, it’s photo forward. That’s the first problem. The second is there’s no direct manipulation. You can’t touch anything. You have to type everything. And that’s great for a conversation. But if you want to like move the price slider, that’s much easier than type, well show me X, Y and Z. The third problem is comparison. You go to Airbnb in Paris, there’s tens of thousands of homes, I think over 100,000 homes. Imagine trying to compare 100,000 homes in a chat bot, you get lost. And so it wants to show you just three options. You want to see more than three and pretty soon you get confused in a thread. And the fourth problem is that almost all bookings of Airbnb have multiple guests, what we call multiplayer. Chat bots are primarily single player. This doesn’t account for the fact that 85% of people booking Airbnb send a message, 100% have an account. And also chat bots are not map-native…

…AI is a risk to us and everyone. If it’s a risk to us, it’s a risk to everyone. So risk to everyone is an opportunity for us…

…I believe that over the next year, you can see a lot of innovation around AI search, AI-native interfaces.

Airbnb’s management buckets its alternative accommodations supply into 2 buckets, namely, the API (application programming interface) bucket, and the primary homes and vacation homes bucket; for the API bucket, management thinks AI enables Airbnb to build more tools to serve hosts; management thinks Airbnb has been lagging behind 3rd parties in building great tools for the API bucket; hosts within the API bucket have sounded out to Airbnb that they need better tools to manage their businesses, and Airbnb has struggled in the past for resources to build these tools, but now the company has a productivity-boost from AI in software development and so are able start building the tools; for the primary homes and vacation homes bucket, management thinks AI can make it much easier for primary homes hosts to list their properties

You can think about our core accommodations business of homes as a few different categories. So you have essentially hosts that connect via an API. You might call that host API partners. These are primarily property managers. That’s one category. Then we have primary homes, homes that people live in primarily, so typically more than 180 days a year. Then you have vacation homes, then you have things like private rooms. So you have to think about each. And I would break them into two, the API and the primary homes or vacation homes. These are two buckets.

I think with the host API partners, I think it’s more about AI enabling us to build more tools. I think we’ve been a little bit lagging behind third parties and building great tools for host API partners. And as a segment, the host API hosts are growing really, really fast, and we see a really big opportunity to better serve them. One of the things we found is that the more properties you manage at Airbnb, the lower your rating is. And so said differently, our customers have higher satisfaction with individual hosts over property managers. Now on the one hand, that’s encouraging because that inventory is more unique and exclusive to Airbnb. Other hand, we see that as opportunity. And one of the things those API partners say is, well, we want to be better host, but we need better tools. So AI is a like — maybe here’s an analogy. In the old world, you might need a team of 20 engineers. In a new world, an engineer can spin up 10 agents. And those agents can work 24/7. I mean I’m kind of exaggerating a little bit. You have to be there to prompt them and the amount of work they can do without supervision isn’t overnight, typically for most tasks, but you can see a huge amount of leverage. So the fact that we’re adopting AI tools is a way for us to get a lot more leverage around the software for most API partners…

…Originally, we didn’t have the resources to do all of the host API work we want to do. And now with AI, we’re reevaluating how much productivity we have, and we’re able to accelerate the development of this work…

…AI, especially though, can help the sourcing discovery in the listing of primary homes. So without, again, giving away some of the things we’ll show in 20 — May 20, we do find that AI can make it much easier to list your property. So right now, you have to type everything in, you type in your address, you type in your title, you have to type in your listed description. Eventually, I imagine a world where you can just say like, list my place, you put in your address, it can scrape information on the Internet. You can take photos. It can even write your description based on computer visioning of the photo. So it’s very, very difficult for a regular person to list a property.

Airbnb’s management thinks that AI agents still cannot work for long hours in an unsupervised manner

So AI is a like — maybe here’s an analogy. In the old world, you might need a team of 20 engineers. In a new world, an engineer can spin up 10 agents. And those agents can work 24/7. I mean I’m kind of exaggerating a little bit. You have to be there to prompt them and the amount of work they can do without supervision isn’t overnight, typically for most tasks.

Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET)

Arista Networks’ management sees AI workflow patterns as being different from typical cloud computing workflows; AI workflows have 2 main categories, namely, long-lived massive flows, and short-lived, unpredictable flows; the difference between AI workflows and typical cloud workflows mean the performance of a flow is important

Unlike typical workloads, AI workflow patterns can be long-lived elephant flows or short-lived and simply not predictable. This implies careful attention to performance where a flow can cause burstiness for a long duration of milliseconds. The intensity of a flow can determine the line weight throughput, the shifting traffic patterns to massive flows synchronized to all-in-all or all-reduce or burst with collective communication are all important for AI training and inference applications.

In the scale-up AI networking use case, Arista Networks’ management sees ESUN (Ethernet for Scale-Up Networking) paving the way for Ethernet technologies to increase and decrease computing power flexibly to match workload demands; Arista Networks will be entering the scale-up networking business in 2027; Arista Networks will be working with its customers to build AI racks with rapid interconnects for CPC (co-packaged copper) and CPO (co-packaged optics); management has no doubt that Arista Networks will have a number of scale-up use cases in 2027 and most of them will start with 1.6 terabit switches; the scale-up use cases in 2027 include 5-7 rack opportunities that Arista Networks is actively designing with customers; today’s scale-up AI networking products are mostly from NVIDIA’s NVLink and PCIe; CPOs are very much still science experiments in the eyes of Arista Networks’ management; management thinks scale-up racks would not be possible with XPO

In scale-up mode, we have familiar technologies such as NVLink and PCIe that have enabled vertical scaling of single compute nodes or racks. The advent of ESUN, Ethernet for Scale-Up Networking, specifications allows for increasing or decreasing computing power in a flexible manner with Ethernet to automatically adapt to workload demands. Scale-Up will be a new entry for Arista in 2027 and beyond, where we will be working closely with our customers to build AI racks with very fast interconnects for co-packaged copper, CPC, or open co-packaged optics, CPO, as well as supporting collectives and memory acceleration…

…there is no doubt in our minds that we will have a number of racks and number of scale-up use cases in 2027. Maybe some of them will be in early trials, but majority of them are looking at really starting with 1.6T, and 1.6T chips will really happen in 2027. There may be a few, a handful of them that tried some experimental stuff at 800 gig. But we continue to see at least 5 to 7 rack opportunities. Some of them are multiple racks with the same customer. We’re actively designing with them. There’s a huge amount of liquid cooling designs with very dense cabling options, acceleration of collectives and memory, features we have to work on for low latency. So I definitely feel we’re in active engineering phase with Ken and Hugh’s teams this year. But unlike the ODMs, I think we’re held to a higher bar, and we have to just make sure that this thing is production worthy and specification adhering to ESUN. So I would say today’s scale-up is mostly limited to NVLink from NVIDIA and maybe some PCIe switching. But majority of the Ethernet scale-up will only really happen in ’27 and ’28…

…While the industry has been talking a lot about co-packaged optics, these are still science experiments, and they’re very proprietary with individual vendors doing their own thing…

…We embrace open CPO a few years from now, but we think XPO has a 10-year run, especially at 1.6T and 3.2T where you need liquid cooling and you need that kind of capacity. So all the scale-up racks we’re talking about wouldn’t be possible without XPO or CPC or any one of those technologies.

In the scale-out AI networking use case, Arista Networks already has more than 100 cumulative customers to-date in 800 gigabit Ethernet deployments; management expects to see 1.6 terabit Ethernet solutions in 2027 at production scale

Scale-out or horizontal scaling involves adding more machines to a leaf-spine fabric, moving workloads across multiple servers or nodes or even connecting other elements like storage or CPUs. As you scale up or out with massive data sets, bottlenecks can be resolved with collective and protocol acceleration at L2, L3, cluster load balancing, all at wire rate. The system must deliver consistent performance without degradation as more nodes participate. Arista is a shining example here with greater than 100 cumulative customers to date in 800 gigabit Ethernet deployments, and we expect the addition of 1.6 terabit in 2027 at production scale.

In the scale-across AI networking use case, Arista Networks’ management thinks the company’s 7800 R3 and R4 series of products, which provides sophisticated traffic engineering, deep routing, encryption properties, and integrated optics atop its EOS (Extensible Operating System) stack, are a great solution; management sees the 7800 series as the premier scale-across product; scale-across AI networking was only a small part of Arista Networks’ business in 2025, but will contribute at least 1/3 of the company’s $3.5 billion in AI networking revenue in 2026; the presence of Alphabet’s TPUs and AMD’s GPUs has created a huge opportunity for Arista Networks in scale-across AI networking; management thinks scale-across is the most significant and differentiated opportunity in AI networking for Arista Networks

Scale across — drives across the cloud and AI as the AI accelerators in a location may need to be distributed to achieve the appropriate bandwidth capacity with the optimal power. As workloads become more complex and more distributed, the bi-sectional bandwidth must scale smoothly to avoid bottlenecks and preserve performance. This demands sophisticated traffic engineering, deep routing, encryption properties, and integrated optics based on Arista EOS stack, and using Arista’s flagship 7800R3 or R4 series. The 7800 has established itself in this category as the premier scale across choice…

…I think last year, on scale-across, we were just beginning. So I think they were small numbers. And majority of the numbers were really scale-out. That’s sort of our heritage and that’s where we excel. If I were to anticipate how it would be this year, again, scale-up is virtually 0 and nonexistent because it really only comes to play after the ESUN spec. So consider that more a’27, ’28 kind of number. So I think the number will be really shared between scale-across and scale-out. I don’t know if I can say it’s 50-50 or 70-30 or 60-40, but scale-across will definitely contribute at least 1/3 of our AI number…

…In general, we are seeing diverse accelerators. Last time I spoke about the AMD accelerators. This time, I will definitely give a nod to the TPUs because in particularly scale across use cases, we’re seeing multitenants connecting to different AI accelerators, including TPUs as well. So I think the diversity of accelerators is creating tremendous multiaccelerator opportunity and multiprotocol features that we can provide for them in our network…

…Scale-across is by far the most significant and differentiated opportunity that really highlights Arista’s prowess in both platforms and software.

Arista Networks’ management thinks the company’s Etherlink portfolio handles both massive synchronous flows for AI training, and low latency flows for real-time inference

Arista’s Etherlink portfolio addresses both the synchronous flows for massive training and the low latency for concurrent swarms of real-time inference in this era of trillions of tokens, terabits of performance, and terawatts of power.

Of Arista Networks’ 4 major AI customers that are deploying AI with Ethernet, 3 had deployed 100,000 GPUs each with Ethernet as of 2025 Q4; the last remaining customer has migrated from Infiniband to Ethernet at production scale; since 2024, Arista Networks has expanded to many more customers beyond the 4 major ones

In 2024, you may recall, we discussed 4 Ethernet-based AI training deployments. And of course, since then, we’ve expanded and exploded to countless others. This fourth customer from the group has officially moved from InfiniBand to Ethernet at production scale over the last 2 years.

Arista Networks’ management thinks the high-speed Ethernet AI leaf-spine architecture, with flexible air or liquid cooling, can overcome the constraints of power and space for AI workloads; management thinks the architecture can help build a low latency distributed AI supercomputer fabric globally

The high-speed Ethernet AI leaf-spine with flexible air or liquid cooled infrastructure overcomes the physical constraints of power and space for AI workloads. It results in a low latency distributed AI supercomputer fabric across global regions.

Arista Networks’ management recently introduced its extended pluggable optics, the XPO form factor; management thinks the company’s networking progress has been important for high-speed optics transmission; the XPO form factor is now endorsed by more than 100 vendors and delivers a record-breaking 12.8 terabits of throughput per pluggable module, and unprecedented rack density, among other traits; management thinks XPO will have a 10-year run; management thinks scale-up racks would not be possible with XPO; management thinks XPO is a very important innovation for the industry; management sees XO unlocking a standard multivendor way to obtain 4x the network density in liquid cooling, which is critical for AI use cases; management thinks XPO and OSFP (Octal Small Form-factor Pluggable) are partnering technologies, where XPO is more suitable for higher data speeds; management thinks XPO will be more suitable for scale-out and scale-across workloads compared to scale-up

What is clear to me and us is our networking progress with data, control and management, and multiplanar orchestration is not only central to our AI switching performance, but also important for high-speed optics transmission. At the recent Optical Fiber Conference, Arista unveiled its extended pluggable optics, XPO form factor, designed specifically for optics innovations at high speed. Now endorsed by greater than 100 vendors, salient features include record-breaking throughput, delivering 12.8 terabits per pluggable module, unprecedented rack density achieving 204.8 terabits per OCP rack unit, integrated cold plate capable of cooling up to 400 watts power per module, and the universality and flexibility across a range of pluggable optics, copper as well as linear halftime or retimed interfaces…

…99% of the optical market today that we connect to is all pluggable optics. So this is a very crucial invention and innovation, not just for Arista, but the industry at large…

…What XPO unlocks is a standard, interoperable multivendor way to get to 4x the network density in liquid cooling, which is absolutely critical for these AI use cases. Without that, you’ve got this huge bottleneck at the front panel, the amount of extra rack space is required to get through OSFPs. It’s — so we’re really enabling the future growth of our industry this way, which we benefit and others benefit as well…

…You should look at XPO as a partner to OSFP. So at 400 gig and 800 gig you’ll be fine with OSFP. And as we go to higher speeds in ’27, ’28 or even beyond, OSFP will run out of steam, and this will be the new connector of choice. So the migration to higher speeds equals the migration to XPO, particularly for scale-out and scale-across. Within a rack and scale-up, there’s still a number of choices. I think within short distances of 2 to 3 meters, you’re still going to see a lot of co-packaged copper and I think XPO in terms of density will be another alternative. But I don’t rule out open CPO as well over there. They’re really looking to maximize the density in a minimum amount of space. So I think XPO will be particularly prevalent in scale-out and scale-across and will be one of the choices in scale-up.

Arista Networks recently won a neocloud as a customer for AI networking; the neocloud’s initial white box architecture could not handle massive scale-out requirements; Arista Networks was selected by the neocloud for its scale-out architecture, which could connect with AMD XPUs; the neocloud is also using AVD (Arista’s Validated Design framework) to automate networking provisioning and thus lower the total cost of ownership; Arista Networks’ management is seeing tremendous opportunity with neocloud and sovereign cloud customers; management thinks the neoclouds are a very important sector for AI networking because they do not have the resources to tackle networking, and so will rely on vendors such as Arista Networks

Our first highlighted win is a neocloud AI network. The customer was constrained by an incumbent white box architecture that simply could not keep pace with the massive scale-out requirements of AI. Arista was selected as a commercially proven and reliable scale-out architecture with unmatched stability of EOS and the ability to connect AMD MI Series XPUs. Arista’s AI leaf and spine Etherlink products were deployed at 800 gigabits to provide the incredible performance modern AI networks require. The AI fabric was tuned using Arista’s cluster load balancing to scale out to thousands of XPUs minimizing hotspots and congestion. On the software side, the customer leveraged AVD, Arista’s Validated Design framework, to automate network provisioning, which both reduces the total cost of ownership, but also provides an easy path to reliable network deployment at scale, where without AVD automation, a small mistake can cause precious days of debugging time. This was a strategic neocloud win with large potential for upside growth in an area where we are seeing enormous opportunity and velocity in both neocloud and sovereign cloud customers…

…It’s easy to talk about the titans because the numbers are so ginormous, right? But the neoclouds are a very important sector because they don’t always have the staff to do everything they want to do, and they really lean on Arista’s design expertise, EOS expertise, network design configurations we can provide them, a family of 22 products we have in AI.

Arista Networks’ management is seeing industry-wide supply shortages across the silicon board, which has led to higher supply costs and thus gross margin pressure; demand for Arista Networks’ networking products is outstripping supply; management hopes the supply shortages will ease in 1-2 years; despite the supply chain challenges, management has raised guidance for Arista Networks’ AI networking revenue for 2026 to $3.5 billion (previous guidance was for $3.26 billion); Arista Networks’ purchase commitments at the end of 2026 Q1 was $8.9 billion, up 31% sequentially; the sequential increase in purchase commitments was for chips related to new products and AI deployments; management is willing to hurt Arista Networks’ gross margin in order to meet demand for AI networking; management is seeing shortage of power in data center sites; management has chosen not to raise prices, which explains the gross margin pressure; Arista Networks’ purchase commitments extend to multiple years because the lead times for chips are that long

Our demand is actually the best I’ve ever seen in my Arista tenure. The supply, however, is a slightly different and opposite tale. We are experiencing industry-wide shortages across the board, be it wafers, silicon chips, CPUs, optics, and of course, memory that I referred to last quarter, coupled with elevated costs to procure these. Clearly, our demand is outstripping our supply this year. While we hope the supply chain will ease in the next year or 2, the Arista operations team has been diligently engaging with our vendors in strengthening supply agreements and engaging in multiyear purchase commitments. We anticipate gross margin pressure due to mix and trade-offs we are making to pay more to assure supply continuity to our customers. Nevertheless, it gives us confidence to increase our forecasted growth slightly to 27.7%, aiming now for $11.5 billion for 2026. We also increased our AI target now to $3.5 billion this year, thereby more than doubling our AI sales annually…

…Our purchase commitments at the end of the quarter were $8.9 billion, up from $6.8 billion at the end of Q4. As mentioned in prior quarters, this expected activity mostly represents purchases for chips related to new products and AI deployments…

…We see multiyear demand, and we are going to do everything, including hurt our gross margins to supply to that demand this year and next year because we believe that we certainly don’t want to keep GPUs idle and AI infrastructures underutilized because Arista didn’t supply the network…

…The other thing we’re seeing with a lot of these use cases is the lack of power in sites, and the ability and demand to distribute and get a more multitenant scale-across is very high in these 2 use cases…

….One thing to clarify also on gross margins. So we view this as a partnership with our customers. So while we would consider and have raised prices a little bit, unlike our competitors, we haven’t done 2 price increases. We haven’t done major price increases. And the price increases really come into play once our backlog starts to reduce, right? So you won’t see the impact of that. So our gross margins are a strong factor of cost going up and are still eating a lot of the costs and giving our customers the benefit and promise of the pricing we said we would give to them…

…I would just say our purchase commitments are multiyears because we’re having to deal with forecasts that are out multiple years so that we get them in time because the lead time of these chips is so long. So I think that’s the biggest hole, lead times.

Arista Networks continues to have a great relationship with its 2 largest customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, in both cloud and AI; management sees the potential for 1-2 new large customers for Arista Networks that use all 3 AI networking use cases – scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across

Microsoft and Meta, they’re our all-time favorites. They’ve been our 10% and greater customers for over a decade. And the partnership could never be stronger, and it continues to get better both in cloud and in AI. In terms of the new entrants, we still expect at least 1, maybe 2 — and maybe I should caveat this by saying, certainly, in demand, we see 1 or 2. We shall see, Todd, how we do on shipments to see if we can achieve the greater than 10%. The 2 of them have very interesting characteristics. They exhibit what I would call the 3 use cases I just alluded to, scale-up, scale-out and scale-across where we really have a fabric notion of creating — so far, we’ve been working with them a lot on the front end, and now we get to complement that on the back end, definitely for scale-out and scale-across and maybe even a little bit of scale-up in some of these use cases.

The biggest use case that Arista Networks’ management sees right now in agentic AI is training, but it will move to distributed inference; management thinks agentic AI will be moving into plenty of enterprise use cases; agentic AI has caused Arista Networks to see a lot more back-end activity now because the hyperscalers have to deal with billions of parameters and tokens, to the extent that the hyperscalers are ignoring the front end refresh; the rise of agentic AI has changed management’s view on the ratio of front-end deployments to back-end deployments from 2:1 to 1:1 or even less; Arista Networks has the same set of products in the same common operating system across the front-end and back-end, which management sees as lowering costs for customers; Arista Networks is the only vendor that has the same set of products in the same common operating system across the front-end and back-end

The biggest killer application we see in agentic AI right now is still training. And indeed, it’s going to move to more distributed inference. And we’d also like to see agentic AI move into a lot of enterprise use cases, all of which we’re seeing, by the way, but I would say large, medium, small. The largest killer agentic AI application is training, the medium is enterprise and the smallest — medium is inference, and the small is obviously enterprise. The — in terms of back end versus front end, we are now seeing way more back-end activity, particularly with our large AI titans and cloud titans because there is just so much scale they need to prepare for the billions of parameters and tokens, and this is where a lot of — so much so that I think the front end, they might come back and refresh, but they’re almost ignoring right now in favor of the back end…

…By virtue of the back-end deployments, I don’t know if we any more see a 2:1 to the front end, but we at least see a 1:1. And the 1:1 can be wide area, CPU, and storage. Those are probably the 3 common use cases. Not all the customers are up and lifting everything and doing all 3, although we’ve had cases where some of them did an upgrade at the front end before they went into the back end. But usually, they will have to come back to that because the minute you put that kind of performance pressure and scale on the back end, you almost have to do something in the front end. But at the moment, I would say it’s more one-to-one…

…The other thing I have to mention here is just how good it feels to be — have the same set of products in the same common operating system management suite and operating model across the front end and back end. This lowers cost for the customer, simplifies their design process to get that leverage, and we’re one of the few vendors who can do that…

…I think only.

When it comes to greenfield deployments of AI data centers, Arista Networks’ management has observed that customers think of both scale-out and scale-across solutions concurrently; Arista Networks has strong market share in both scale-out and scale-across in greenfield deployments; when it comes to brownfield deployments of AI data centers, Arista Networks now has the opportunity to offer scale-across solutions; the lack of power supply has resulted in data center operators having to distribute the centers, which gives Arista Networks the opportunity to participate in the build out

[Question] You said most of the cloud revenue near-term is going to be scale-out and scale-across as we wait for scale-up to ramp. How are you thinking about your market share when it comes to scale-out versus scale-across in the early days of scale-across? What are you seeing in terms of market share? And are you seeing customer decisions being led in scale-across by sort of the incumbent in scale-out? Or is it a different decision altogether in terms of how they’re designing vendors for scale-across?

[Answer] If it’s greenfield deployment, then they tend to think of it together because they’re not only building the sites, but they’re thinking of the interconnect across them. And therefore, market share is generally strong in both. In some cases, where Arista has not been a historical participant within the data center, we now have an opportunity to offer the scale-across multitenant even in a nongreenfield situation and let’s say, in a brownfield, where now they’ve got disparate data centers or AI clusters that we now have to bring in. And so once again, I think Arista is really fitting example to be in scale-across for both those use cases, but has the additional opportunity in a brand-new data center to be in all use cases, if that makes sense. So it’s giving us a chance to participate with different types of accelerators and different types of models because people aren’t getting the power and they’re having to distribute the data centers. And as a result of distribution, you need more traffic engineering, routing, multitenancy. So I would say scale-across is the common denominator in all our use cases and scale-up and scale-out maybe nice options in brand-new greenfields.

Arista Networks’ management currently sees AI training workloads dominating, but they also see an inference paradigm coming, where CPUs will become more important than GPUs; management is seeing customers wanting to deploy small-ish clusters, in the thousands of GPUs, for inference

While today we are in a training fever, that a more distributed AI — generative AI paradigm with inferences, which means you don’t always need the GPU. You’re going to have high-end CPUs and you’re going to have a smaller set of parameters and tokens to manage, and you’re going to have specific agentic AI use cases and applications. We’re seeing very, very early trials and stages. Nothing super big yet. But we are seeing — I mean, they’re not in the hundreds of thousands of GPUs like you see on the AI titans. But we are frequently seeing our customers in certain high-tech sectors want to deploy clusters that are 1,000 — few thousand, definitely not 10,000, but in hundreds of thousands. And they tend to be exactly, as you said, not training, but more inference based — more agentic AI edge inference based as well. So I think we’ll see more of that. This is the calm before the storm, if you will. And as we — as the AI gets more distributed, I think it doesn’t need GPUs alone, it’s going to need more high-performance compute.

Cloudflare (NYSE: NET)

A rapidly-growing technology company in the Asia Pacific region is experiencing explosive growth, driven by AI coding, and expanded its relationship with Cloudflare; the technology company chose Cloudflare over a hyperscaler

A rapidly growing technology company in APAC expanded their relationship with Cloudflare, signing a two-year $8.7 million contract for application services and our Workers developer platform. Driven by the boom in AI-powered live coding, this company has seen explosive growth, and Cloudflare has become core to their infrastructure, intelligently routing billions of daily requests across the globe. This customer chose Cloudflare over a competitive bid from a hyperscaler due to the strength of our unified platform and our seamless low-latency security.

A Fortune 100 technology company expanded its relationship with Cloudflare after facing an urgent need to handle massive user-initiated agentic traffic; the technology company was up and running with Cloudflare within a week

A Fortune 100 technology company expanded their relationship with Cloudflare, signing a two-year $8 million contract for our privacy proxy solution, the fifth privacy engagement with this customer, solidifying Cloudflare as their go-to privacy partner. They approached us with an urgent need to handle massive scale with precise geolocation accuracy for user-initiated agentic traffic. We delivered a fully operational solution within one week, demonstrating the speed, trust and engineering depth that continues to set us apart.

A leading AI company expanded its relationship with Cloudflare despite having a strong build-over–buy mentality; the AI company is a massive target for cyberattacks and needed a strong security layer to protect its infrastructure; the AI company is already testing Cloudflare’s AI gateway for AI workloads

A leading AI company expanded their relationship with Cloudflare, signing a one-year $4.1 million contract for application services. As one of the most visible targets for cyberattacks globally, this customer needed a security layer to protect their massive infrastructure build-out. Despite a strong build-over-buy mentality, they chose Cloudflare, trusting a battle-tested network that has proven its resilience against the largest attacks. This is a customer that moves fast and pushes boundaries, and they’re already testing our AI gateway for their AI workloads.

A leading AI company expanded its relationship with Cloudflare with a contract for Argo Smart Routing just one quarter after inking a Workers Developer Platform deal; the AI company used Cloudflare to lower its average global latency by 30%; the hyperscalers could not match Cloudflare’s speed

Another leading AI company expanded their relationship with Cloudflare, signing a 10-month $2 million contract for Argo Smart Routing coming just one quarter after signing a Workers developer platform deal. This customer wants to be the fastest and most reliable AI provider in the market, and Cloudflare is delivering. After deploying Argo, they immediately reduced their average global latency by 30%. In the AI space, that kind of speed is a real advantage that our hyperscaler competitors simply can’t match.

Cloudflare’s management is seeing agentic AI reshape how companies are structured, operate, and create value; Cloudflare itself is the first and most demanding customer of its own AI tools; prior to November 2025, management was cautious about deploying AI internally because management was unclear about the ROI from AI investments; from November 2025 onwards, Cloudflare started experiencing massive gains in productivity from the use of AI; in 2026 Q1, Cloudflare’s usage of AI increased by 600%; nearly all of Cloudflare’s R&D team are using AI coding tools powered by the company’s Workers Developer Platform; 100% of the code submitted by Cloudflare’s R&D team for production are now reviewed by autonomous AI agents; management thinks there will soon be a huge uptick in reliability in software development across the technology industry because AI can now be used to check code; in 2026 Q1, Cloudflare experienced an unprecedented increase in new code generated, solved bugs, and burn-down of technical backlog; employees across Cloudflare are running thousands of AI sessions daily, and these workflows rely on dozens of MCP (Model Context Protocol) servers; Cloudflare has built an agentic harness called Cloudflare OS for teams to get started quickly with agentic AI; Cloudflare’s newfound productivity from AI use has led management to reduce headcount by 20%, but growth is expected in the company’s sales team; Cloudflare has been able to keep the costs of internal AI deployment manageable by running the models on its own infrastructure when appropriate, instead of the model providers’ infrastructure; Cloudflare has been able to achieve significantly higher utilisation of GPU resources than hyperscalers and AI labs; Cloudflare’s AI Gateway enables it to route workloads to the right models, thereby achieving cost-efficency

In nearly every customer conversation, it’s clear. The emergence of generative and agentic AI is not just redefining the economics of the Internet and software companies, they’re redefining the business models of all companies, fundamentally reshaping how organizations are structured, operate and create value.

At Cloudflare, we don’t just build and sell AI tools and platforms. We are our own most demanding customer. AI and agents are no longer pilot projects at Cloudflare. They are now core parts of our workforce. It’s been an interesting journey. We’ve been selling picks and shovels in the AI gold rush for the last four years, but we ourselves were cautious users wanting to ensure there was real ROI before making significant investment. We avoided a lot of the performative AI some companies engaged in. Internally, the tipping point was last November. At that point, across our teams, we began to see massive productivity gains, team members that were 2x, 10x, even 100x more productive than they had been before. It was like going from a manual to an electric screwdriver. Cloudflare’s usage of AI has increased by more than 600% in the last three months alone. For team members in R&D, 97% use AI coding tools powered by the same Workers Developer Platform we ship to our customers and 100% of their contributions to our production code bases are now reviewed by autonomous AI agents.

I think across the industry, you’re about to see a massive uptick in reliability as every code or configuration change can now have a tireless and uncorrelated set of eyes trained on every incident from the last 10 years, checking to avoid problems. At the same time, the impact on developer velocity is clear. We’ve never seen a quarter-to-quarter increase in new code generated, bugs squashed and technical backlog burn down like we did last quarter…

…Employees across Cloudflare from HR to marketing run thousands of AI sessions each day to get their work done. Those agentic workflows rely on dozens of MCP servers to reach data in systems of record and use hundreds of centrally managed skill files as well as many more that have been created and shared within individual teams. The harness that we’ve built, which we call Cloudflare OS allows teams across the company to quickly get up and running…

…By fully embracing an agentic AI-first organizational structure and operating model as Cloudflare’s revenue scales, our efficiency and productivity will scale even faster. Unfortunately, this decision means parting ways with colleagues who have helped build the strong foundation Cloudflare stands on today, resulting in a reduction of the size of our team by approximately 20%. These reductions are across all functions and geographies and reflect how broadly AI is accelerating our operational velocity. Importantly, however, we continue to expect growth in the net capacity of our quota-carrying sales force to accelerate in 2026 with today’s actions compounding productivity to fuel our growth…

…[Question] How do you think about balancing R&D agentic coding adoption with the cost?

[Answer] We have seen as usage has gone up 600% in the last quarter, we have seen costs go up. But I don’t think it’s gone up nearly as much as some others. And that’s driven by a number of things… more importantly, though, is a lot of times, we’re able to run those models instead of on their infrastructure, on our own infrastructure. And so we have a fleet of GPUs, and we have all of the tools with Cloudflare Workers and Workers AI to be able to build and use those tools themselves. And so most of the use of various AI coding tools isn’t even leaving our network. It’s running on our infrastructure because we’re very good at routing to wherever there’s capacity, we’re able to get a lot out of that. And so I think that’s one of the reasons why we see significantly higher utilization across our GPU resources than some of — than any of the hyperscalers and then — than any even of the AI labs are able to drive.

And then when we’ve built what we call Cloudflare OS, we’ve paired that with our AI Gateway product. And that AI Gateway product allows you to route different requests based on what’s the right model for the right task. And so that means that if we have a task which we can evaluate as being relatively simple, then we can route that to a model that might be running on our own infrastructure and be able to be delivered at essentially no marginal cost to us. Whereas if we have something that is more important, we might send that off to one of the frontier models and pay more for that…

…Across most of the hyperscalers, you’re seeing utilization rates of their GPUs that are in the single digits, whereas we’re slowly getting our GPU utilization to approach what our CPU utilization is, which is up in the 70% to 80% range.

Cloudflare’s management thinks AI is the biggest tailwind for the company’s network and Workers Developer Platform in its history; management thinks Cloudflare got lucky by already having the right set of tools for agentic AI

AI is driving a fundamental replatforming of the Internet as well as a paradigm shift in how software is created and consumed, and it’s shaping up to be the biggest tailwind for both our network and our Workers Developer Platform that we’ve ever seen in Cloudflare’s history…

…In our workers platform, we have built a platform that allows you to build agents that are just significantly more efficient than anyone has before. And so across all of the parts of our business because even in the Zero Trust and SASE space, it turns out that having more fine-grained controls about data is exactly what you need if you have kind of these somewhat new agents running around doing things, you want to make sure that they only have access to the things they should. It’s — I wish I could say that we saw all this years ago and built Cloudflare for it. But I think that the reality is that we happen to have built exactly the right set of tools for this moment.

Cloudflare’s management is seeing hundreds of billions of agentic requests monthly, and the requests are growing

So today, literally, we’re seeing hundreds of billions of agentic requests per month, and that number is growing exponentially.

Cloudflare’s management thinks the predominant business model of the internet will be changing dramatically over the next 5 years because of AI, but the end-state is still an open question; management thinks Cloudflare could help define the new business model(s) for the internet; management thinks micro transactions for agentic traffic to websites will be one of the new business models, because agentic internet traffic could surpass human internet traffic in 2027; management thinks that nobody currently has the appropriate infrastructure to handle the potential volume of agentic micro transactions; because of unwanted agentic traffic on advertising-supported media websites, Cloudflare has gone from low penetration in the space to dominating it; media companies have been able to sign better deals with AI companies because of the tools Cloudflare has built; management is focused on making substantial progress with the internet’s new business models, but they are unsure when these will become meaningful

The business model of the Internet, which has historically been advertising and subscriptions, is about to change dramatically over the next five years. And exactly what it changes to I think it’s still an open question. And I think it might not be one thing. I think it might be several things. Because of how much of the Internet sits behind Cloudflare, we have a seat at the table of defining that…

…Some part of this is going to be some kind of micro transactions for any request that agents are making to website. It might be fractions of fractions of pennies. But if you think about the — I don’t know, about 500 billion requests that pass through Cloudflare in any given second, that some percentage of those we think that there’s going to be some ability to have some micro payment that is made for that because somebody has to pay for the infrastructure. And if you look at the growth in agentic traffic, if you look at the growth in sort of non-human traffic on the Internet, somewhere in 2027, we think it’s going to surpass human traffic, and it’s not going to slow down. And so we’ve got to figure out something else to build it…

…The challenge is like nobody can handle the volumes right now. And so we’re looking around to partner with people. We’re looking around for everything. But right now, the sort of transaction volumes that people are excited about like one million transactions per second, we need something that’s significantly larger than that…

…If you’re an ad-supported business, then your content being crawled is actually a threat. So I think we’re trying to provide tools on both sides of that. The side that you focused on is the folks that want to block it, the ad-supported folks that are out there. And I would say that the first milestone that we’ve seen is that we went from being relatively low in terms of our penetration in the media space to today dominating that space. And so I think that’s the first sign. And what I hear from media company execs is they are signing better deals with AI companies because we’ve given them the tools to be able to control who has their content…

…I don’t know exactly when that will come. But I do — I will say that when we listed what our top six priorities were for 2026, one of the six was making sure that we make real progress and see the first revenue that we can then pass back to that long tail of the Internet in order to help make sure that we continue to create a healthy ecosystem for content creators. And I’m pretty confident we’ll make that goal.

Cloudflare’s management thinks the company’s business is very different from that of the hyperscalers when it comes to providing AI compute infrastructure

The hyperscalers business is to buy a server and then to lease that server back ideally for 5x or more of what they paid for it. And so if they don’t have servers to lease, then they can’t grow their revenue. And so their CapEx has to invest ahead of whatever that demand is that’s out there. We focus on very different things. So the thing to watch for us is when you see us publish a blog post about how we figured out how to get more utilization across our fleet of GPUs or how to get more models loaded quickly across GPUs. That’s real IP that we’re inventing internally and the metaphor to think about is once upon a time when I was in college, I remember a new thing called the web was starting, and so we needed to have a web server. And so we literally — from Gateway, I remember ordering a box that came with cow prints on the outside of it. We bought a gateway server and we plugged it in because there was no idea of virtualization. And then VMware came along and then after that, you had Docker and containers and that was sort of the journey that everyone went on. We’re still at the stage with GPUs of buying the physical server and needing to use that for most of the industry.

Cloudflare has a recent product called Dynamic Workers which allow a company to stand up an AI workflow rapidly; a large AI studio went from zero Dynamic Workers to 1 million in 15 days

We launched something called Dynamic Workers, which allows you to very, very quickly stand up something which is significantly more efficient than a container. Containers are too slow and too heavy to actually be able to respond to these incredibly fast agentic workloads. And so what AI studios are doing is they’re looking at this and they’re seeing the opportunity. And so to give you a sense of — with the — I’m naming them, one of the large AI studios in just the last 15 days went from essentially zero Dynamic Workers to over one million Dynamic Workers running across the platform.

Cloudflare’s management thinks agentic AI will provide tailwinds for its legacy businesses

Every time an agent does something, like if you think about it, you just — if you type something into ChatGPT or any of the things, like to search — the number of sites that get searched, the amount of traffic that gets generated, if I’m looking for a digital camera as a human, I might visit five websites if I really care about it. My agent is going to visit 5,000. And so that’s going to just drive significantly more usage, which is the biggest driver of kind of our Act 1 revenue…

…For Act 2, again, as we talked about already, I think being able to very narrowly define what data an agent has access to and what data they don’t. We’re just seeing more and more of that usage, especially in the self-service category, which there really isn’t another sort of SASE, Zero Trust, self-serve competitor out there with any sort of scale. And so that’s with things like OpenClaw driving a lot of usage there. And what we found time and time again is as hobbyists or individuals adopt technology, they inevitably start to bring that technology more and more to work. And that’s what we’re seeing as we win more of the enterprise accounts across Act 2.

Coupang (NYSE: CPNG)

Automation and AI is improving Coupang’s service levels and lowering its cost to serve; management expects automation and AI to help Coupang improve its customer experience and margins in the years ahead

Automation and AI across our services, including our Fulfillment and Logistics network, continue to improve service levels and lower cost to serve in parallel, and we expect them to be meaningful contributors to both the customer experience and margin expansion in the years ahead.

Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG)

Datadog engineers are equipped with the latest AI coding tools and they are building rapidly; management sees the company’s AI initiatives as being split into 2 buckets, namely (1) AI for Datadog, and (2) Datadog for AI; AI for Datadog is about making Datadog’s platform better with AI products and capabilities while Datadog for AI is about Datadog’s end-to-end observability and security capabilities across the AI stack; in AI for Datadog, the company launched MCP (model context protocol) Server for general availability recently and it allows developers to debug applications directly in their AI coding agents; in AI for Datadog, the company launched Bits AI Security Agent recently and it reduces investigations from hours to as little as 30 seconds; in AI for Datadog, the company launched Bits Assistant in preview recently and it allows users to search and act across Datadog with natural language; in Datadog for AI, the company recently launched GPU Monitoring for users to understand their GPU fleets’ performance and drive higher GPU ROI (return on investment)

Our engineers enabled with the latest AI coding tools are building rapidly to help our customers confidently and securely deploy their applications…

…As a reminder, we’re talking about our AI efforts in 2 buckets: AI for Datadog and Datadog for AI.

So first, AI for Datadog. These are AI products and capabilities that make the Datadog platform better and more useful for our customers. In March, we launched our MCP Server for general availability. With MCP Server, developers access live production data to debug their applications directly in their AI coding agent or IDE. We delivered Bits AI Security Agent, which autonomously triages Datadog Cloud SIEM signals, conduct in-depth investigations of potential threats and delivers actionable recommendations. We’ve seen Bits AI Security Agent reduce investigations that could take hours to as little as 30 seconds. We also shipped Bits Assistant now in preview, which helps customers search and act across Datadog using natural language prompts.

Moving on to Datadog for AI. This includes Datadog capabilities that deliver end-to-end observability and security across the AI stack. We launched GPU Monitoring, enabling teams to understand GPU fleet utilization, workload efficiency, thermal and power behavior and interconnect performance. This drives higher GPU ROI and operational reliability.

Datadog now has 6,500 customers sending data for their AI integrations (was 5,500 in 2025 Q4); these 6,500 customers are only 20% of Datadog’s total customer count, but represent 80% of the company’s ARR; customers’ usage of AI within Datadog is growing rapidly; Bits AI SRE agent investigations have increased by more than 100% from December 2025 to March 2026; the number of LLM spans customers are sending to Datadog is up 3x sequentially in 2026 Q1; the number of Datadog MCP Server tool calls is up 4x sequentially in 2026 Q1; the number of Bits Assistant messages is up 12x sequentially in 2026 Q1; some of the growing AI-related volume that Datadog is processing is because of enterprises’ adoption of AI coding tools; management is seeing an inflection point in AI consumption from customers, driven by a real move towards production-level AI workloads from both AI native and non-AI companies; management is seeing a massive increase in agent usage

We now have over 6,500 customers sending data for one or more of our AI integrations. Though this is only 20% of total customers, they represent about 80% of our ARR. And our customers’ usage of AI within Datadog platform continues to grow rapidly. Bits AI SRE agent investigations have more than doubled from December to March. The number of spans sent to our LLM observability product nearly tripled quarter-over-quarter. The number of Datadog MCP server tool calls quadrupled quarter-over-quarter and the number of Bits Assistant messages increased by a factor of 12 in that period…

…[Question] Is there any way to conceptualize the growth in the sheer raw volume of code that’s being produced in the world today due to adoption of code generators such as Claude Code and Codex and Cursor because they seem to be developing the capability to take on full projects?

[Answer] We definitely think and see that there’s many more applications being created. There’s going to be way more complexity in production. We see some of that happening already today. Some of those new applications are getting into production. They’re finding users. We see some signs of that at every layer of our platform. We quoted a few stats on the increasing data volumes we see in our AI products. That’s definitely a reflection of that. So we see an inflection point there in consumption from customers. We see a move to production that is very real, and we see that across both AI native and non-AI companies…

…We see both a stratospheric increase of agent usage. So we have a ton of usage on our MCP Server. We see customers trying to automate a lot with their own agents, using our agents, using a combination of those.

Example of a 7-figure and 8-figure land deals with the AI research divisions of 2 of the world’s largest technology companies (likely to be 2 of Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Alphabet, with a likelier pairing of Meta and Microsoft because the deals included GPU monitoring for training workloads, and Alphabet trains on TPUs); the 2 technology companies are training advanced AI models and are relying on Datadog to reduce engineering friction and increase training velocity; the 2 technology companies will be using GPU Monitoring on large parallel GPU grids; the hyperscalers are the companies that make the most sense to pursue observability tools themselves, but they still choose Datadog to be efficient with their own resources; the hyperscalers are using Datadog for both traditional observability and GPU monitoring; it’s still early days for the hyperscalers in terms of their usage of Datadog, but Datadog’s management is optimistic that the 2 hyperscalers can be an example for other AI model builders in the future

We landed 2 large deals, a 7-figure and an 8-figure annualized deals with the AI research divisions at 2 of the world’s largest technology companies. These organizations are building and training the most advanced AI models in the world. It is critical for them to reduce engineering friction and increase training velocity, but fragmented internal and open source tooling made it harder to identify and solve issues and reduce engineering and research productivity. By using Datadog, both companies are accelerating their pace of innovation on their hyperscale AI training workloads. And this includes optimizing their workflows using GPU Monitoring on large parallel GPU grids…

…The thing that’s also interesting, in particular this quarter is that we also landed some large parts of hyperscalers. And hyperscalers typically have a culture of building everything themselves, and they certainly have the balance sheet and the human capital to support some of that build-out. Like if there was ever a set of companies for whom it makes sense to do it themselves, that would be those companies. And yet, we see that they have the same issues. When it comes to going as fast as they can and being as efficient as they can with their resources, like they come to us to replace some of the things that we were using before…

…[Question] About the hyperscalers because I thought that was particularly interesting. And the reason why is I don’t think you called them out previously before, and they are so prevalent in the modern tech stack. To your point, they could do this themselves. So I guess how are they using Datadog? Is it for more kind of traditional observability? Or is it for these newer areas like GPU monitoring that Datadog has performed so well of late?

[Answer] It’s both actually. When you look in general at the large AI customers, they use Datadog the way other companies are largely with a fairly broad set of our products to cover the full surface of observability. What’s new is we now have a product for GPU monitoring. It’s a very new product. And we see the hyperscalers that are coming to us for training workloads in particular, being very interested in that. So again, it’s too early in the product life cycle and the customer life cycle for these specific customers to call definitive victory there, but we see that as a very encouraging sign of where the market might go in the future because we think this might be a bellwether of what the next 10, 100, 500 companies that are going to start training workloads are going to want to do. We have some signs that go beyond the customers we signed this quarter that point that way too.

Datadog’s management continues to believe that digital transformation, cloud migration, and AI adoption are long-term growth drivers of Datadog’s business; management is seeing democratisation of AI training and a growing variety of AI accelerators being used (in management’s words, “the heterogeneity of silicon”), and management thinks both trends are positive for Datadog; the heterogeneity of silicon currently applies to only a very small handful of companies, but management sees a growing opportunity; management was historically more optimistic for AI inference as a growth market for Datadog, but they are increasingly seeing AI training as also a growth market for the company too, driven by growing adoption by the hyperscalers; management is agnostic about the source of usage on Datadog, whether it’s humans or agents; AI training is becoming a growth market for Datadog because it has changed from something artisanal to something in production-mode that has scaled by orders of magnitude and that needs to be incredibly reliable; management is investing heavily into security for AI agents; management thinks there’s a chance a good portion of the market leans towards on-premise observability products

There is no change to our overall view that digital transformation and cloud migration are long-term secular growth drivers for our business. But we now have an additional secular growth driver with AI as we help our customers deliver more value with this transformative new technology. Now more than ever, we feel ideally positioned to help customers of every size and every industry as well as all types of users, whether humans or AI agents, so they can transform, innovate and drive value through AI and cloud adoption…

…The broader market that’s interesting here is training, the training used to be something only 2 or 3 companies were doing or maybe 4 or 5 at a large scale. And it looks like training actually might democratize quite a bit more, and many companies will train models on a regular basis. So it becomes more of a viable category for service providers like us basically. I think the heterogeneity of the silicon is definitely a trend that plays in our favor there. The more heterogeneous, the more you need someone else to make sense of everything for you and tie it all together and also tie it all with the non-GPU aspects and the rest of the infrastructure and the applications and the users and the developers like basically everything we do for living…

…When you think of who is actually — who actually has heterogeneous environments today, that is still a very small number of companies, Google, barely just started selling their TPUs to the outside. So I think it’s still a small number of companies that are there, but we see a growing opportunity there.

Interestingly, last year, when we reported earnings, we said we’re mostly interested in inference workloads and training is not really a market for us yet. Now we actually see training becoming a market. We started landing customers that are actually hyperscalers that have a whole host of homegrown technologies and that are using us specifically in their super intelligence labs to help monitor their workloads, accelerate the training runs, monitor the GPUs also. So we see that as a point of validation that there’s going to be a great market for us…

…We don’t care whether most of the usage is humans, most of the usage is agents. Our business model lends itself to it pretty well, like we’re usage-based, and it doesn’t really matter where the usage is coming from, from that perspective…

…Training was very new a couple of years ago. It was something that was only done by very few companies, and it was, in a way, very artisanal. Like, it was not a production workload. It was something that researchers were building and that was very one-off and homegrown in ways. And now it’s turning into production. It’s turning into something that many more companies are doing. It’s scaling by orders of magnitude. And it’s becoming something that has to be on all the time, reliable and every minute you lose is — or rather every failure you have in your training runs is a week you give away to the competition. And so as a result, it becomes way more interesting as a market for us. And we see some signs of that. Again, we didn’t have a lot of it. We didn’t see a lot of it last year. Now all of a sudden, we’re starting to see quite a bit of activity there and demand…

…On the security of agents, we interface with that in 2 ways. So first, there’s the agents we build ourselves because we are building a lot of automation inside of our product for our customers and agents that automatically identify but also resolve issues without you having to do anything. And there, a lot of it has to do with understanding what permissions to apply, what kind of guardrails to apply, what kind of — how to interface with the humans and how to make that trustworthy and visible in the right way. And so that’s pretty much the whole product surface is to [indiscernible] data. The automation itself actually kind of works already. So you should expect to hear more about that at our conference. This is definitely one big area of investment for us…

…There was a question earlier on data residency and living in customers’ environments. We definitely see a great opportunity there. There is a chance that a good portion of the market leans this way in the future. Today, it’s not the largest part of the market, but we definitely see a potential for that. So we’re investing heavily in that sort of our product.

Datadog experienced adoption growth in AI native customers in 2026 Q1 that significantly outpaced non-AI customers; the AI native cohort continues to diversify and grow; 22 customers in the AI native cohort now spend more than $1 million annually, with 5 spending more than $10 million annually

Our AI native customer growth continues to significantly outpace the rest of the business. This group continues to diversify and grow, including 22 customers spending more than $1 million annually and 5 spending more than $10 million annually. This group includes the leading companies in foundational models, code-gen tools and vertical-specific AI solutions.

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)

MercadoLibre’s management rolled out the company’s 1st AI-powered search experience in the marketplace business in 2026 Q1; the new search experience, which involved LLMs (large language models), has led to uplifts in conversion and click-through rates for sponsored listings in Brazil and Mexico; daily active users of MercadoLibre’s Seller Assistant grew 40% month-on-month in March 2026; an AI assistant has increased the productivity of MercadoLibre’s fulfillment network; the new search experience is able to better understand users’ intent

We rolled out our first AI-powered search experience in our marketplace in Q1’26, shifting the architecture away from keywords and rebuilding it around LLMs. In Brazil and Mexico, the improvement in product relevance led to uplifts in conversion and click-through-rate for sponsored listings, both of which represent incremental revenue. These are early results, which we believe have the potential to transform how our customers search and discover products on our platform. Engagement with our Seller Assistant is strengthening, with daily active users growing more than 40% MoM in March. In shipping, an AI-powered assistant that provides reps with real-time process information and performance challenges has increased productivity across our fulfillment network…

…I think it’s worth highlighting the fact that we deployed LLMs in search in commerce for the first time this quarter. And basically, that is live in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. So now we are using this technology to better understand users’ intent, combining both knowledge on the user behind the query and better interpretation of the query itself.

MercadoLibre’s AI Assistant in MercadoPago is now automatically alert users about negative balances and also identifying opportunities for users to earn higher yields on their savings; AI tools are helping MercadoLibre’s sales force for the Acquiring business to be more productive

In Fintech, our AI Assistant is becoming more proactive. In Brazil, it now alerts users to negative balances in accounts connected via Open Finance and identifies funds held elsewhere that could be earning a higher yield with Mercado Pago — and crucially, it can act on these opportunities instantly, moving balances between accounts within seconds. This is a meaningful step beyond a traditional assistant: it is not just surfacing information, it is helping users take action. In Acquiring, AI tools continue to drive significant improvements in sales force productivity, contributing to the strong market share gains we are seeing across the region.

Through AI, MercadoLibre’s productivity KPIs were up 56%-80% year-on-year in 2026 Q1 even though headcount was up by just 8%; senior engineers now spend time building code instead of reviewing code; MercadoLibre is rolling out Claude CoWork to its 31,000 employees

Headcount grew 8% YoY in Q1’26 – a carryover effect of 2025 hiring – but productivity KPIs are growing 7-10x faster. Many of our most senior engineers that were previously spending most of their time reviewing code are now also building code because of the productivity gains enabled by AI tools. Rollbacks – code that is returned to its developer due to errors – are materially lower YoY. More broadly, we have rolled out Claude Cowork to 31,000 employees, making Mercado Libre one of the earliest, large-scale enterprise adopters globally.

Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP)

Shopify’s management had bet early on AI and now AI is embedded in everything the company does; Shopify shipped 300 new products and features in 2025 while keeping headcount flat; Shopify has an AI coding partner built right into Slack

In 2026, AI is now Shopify’s native language. We bet early on AI and forced its adoption. It’s embedded in everything we do, the products we build, the channels we power, the way every single person on the team operates. AI has become an exoskeleton for everyone at Shopify, giving them a virtual team of agents and that makes room for rapid experimentation. It allows them to pursue multiple ideas at the same time and then double down on the winners…

…We shipped over 300 new products and features last year alone. We kept our flat head count, which we’re very proud of. And that’s only possible because something has changed fundamentally. And I know Tobi has been talking a bit about river, which is a perfect example of it, but it’s this AI coding partner built right into Slack for the entire team where they can pull into any threat, any conversation and do, frankly, a remarkable amount of the engineering work. And we built it because we needed it, and now it’s deeply embedded in how we operate.

Shopify’s management believes that entrepreneurs will benefit deeply from AI because AI-powered shopping democratises discovery, and this in turn benefits Shopify; each time the world gets more complex, Shopify becomes more valuable for merchants because the company absorbs the complexity into its systems; management sees 3 reasons why Shopify is in a very strong position in the AI age, namely, the company’s (1) data on millions of merchants, hundreds of millions of buyers and billions of products, that enables it to build products informed by the insights developed from the data, such as Sidekick mentioned, (2) demand conversion flywheel, and (3) ability to absorb complexity for merchants; Shopify’s structural advantage is that it gives merchants everything they need, and the company is shipping products even faster now through AI

No group benefits more from AI than entrepreneurs. The logic is simple. AI is making entrepreneurship dramatically more accessible and in fact accelerated. That means we’re going to see more entrepreneurs, and they’re going to scale more easily. AI-powered shopping democratizes discovery. Reach is not just influenced by budget anymore, it is influenced by relevance, which benefits both merchant and buyer. And the right products find the right shopper at the right moment. And this is enormous potential for new and scaling merchants. And because we win when they win, it also has enormous potential for Shopify…

…Every single time the world gets more complex, Shopify gets more valuable. We absorb more of that complexity into our systems and become more valuable to merchants. So when we look at this new era of commerce that we’re in, there are really 3 core principles that explain why Shopify is in such a strong position…

…The first principle, Shopify has a huge advantage that is about to compound. We have 20 years of commerce data. We have data on purchase intent across millions of merchants, hundreds of millions of buyers and billions of products. And in a world where real-time information is now table stakes, the edge is the insight beneath it. And that requires depth, not just access, but experience. We’ve seen merchants start, stall, pivot and scale millions of times across every category and geography. It allows us to build on the real behavior of commerce and to keep shipping products grounded in insights only we have, deep experience applied at speed. That is very hard to replicate and it compounds…

…The second principle, which is the demand conversion flywheel. It should be getting more obvious that every quarter that Shopify is no longer just the platform to convert demand, we are becoming the platform to create it too. And that end-to-end position is a major advantage for merchants…

…The third principle I’ll leave you with is what I call invisible complexity. Here’s the thing. The hardest parts of commerce are the parts that nobody sees, and this is where Shopify thrives…

…That’s the structural advantage of Shopify. We give you everything you need by operating across the entire commerce stack. It’s not the power of any one element of the platform. It’s how they all work together to help merchants accelerate their success. It’s the knowledge and expertise readily available through Sidekick. It’s the speed, context and simplified complexity behind checkout. It’s the ability to sell across every channel, every surface and every geography from day 1. Internally, we are making every function faster, sharper and more productive, and output per employee is improving through deliberate AI usage. The result is that we are building more, shipping more and serving more merchants.

Sidekick is Shopify’s intelligent assistant for merchants that is trained on the company’s knowledge base; the number of weekly active shops using Sidekick grew 385% year-on-year in 2026 Q1; 12,000 custom apps were created with Sidekick in 2026 Q1, up 200% sequentially; half of all Shopify Flows (Shopify’s workflow builder) generated in 2026 Q1 were built with Sidekick; theme edits with Sidekick was in the multimillions in 2026 Q1, up 1,000%; Sidekick has a smart suggestions feature called Pulse; Pulse recently suggested to an accessory brand to create a social proof page and when the accessory brand agreed, the page was created in minutes at no incremental cost to the accessory brand; in the past, the accessory brand would have required a team and several weeks to build the page; merchants that use Sidekick become power users very quickly; Sidekick is used internally at Shopify; management sees Sidekick as a complement to Shopify’s App Store, not a replacement; Sidekick is enabling merchants to build individualised apps rapidly, and thus, move much faster

Sidekick is the perfect example of this. As a reminder, this is our intelligent assistant, which is trained on our knowledge base, paired with completely personalized intel, it has about each merchant’s particular business…

…The number of weekly active shops using Sidekick in Q1 was up 4x year-over-year. We saw over 12,000 custom apps created in Q1 alone using Sidekick. And nearly half of all Shopify flows generated in Q1 were built with Sidekick. And theme edits just from last quarter are in the multimillions, growing over 1,000% in a single quarter. And theme edits just from last quarter are in the multimillions, growing over 1,000% in a single quarter…

…And then there’s Pulse. Sidekick’s smart suggestions feature, which proactively delivers personalized recommendations for merchants using market trends and data from their store, which Sidekick then executes on the merchant’s behalf. And I’ll give you a great example that I just saw the other day. It was an accessory brand, and Pulse noticed that this brand was getting attention in the right places. Its products were being endorsed by fashion publications and showing up on celebrities’ Instagram profiles. So it proactively suggested that the merchant create a social proof page on their website to build trust and validation. And once the merchant agreed, Sidekick created that page on the merchant’s behalf, and it was already all within minutes. Now just a few months ago, that process multiple specialists, marketing, UX design, copywriting and often an incremental cost to the merchant and likely several weeks from start to finish. And now it is happening autonomously in minutes at 0 incremental costs to the merchant. And that is just one of the smart recommendations being served up to that merchant as part of their daily operations…

…Weekly active shops are up 385% using Sidekick. We saw 12,000 custom apps built in Q1, which is up like over 200% quarter-over-quarter…

…Merchants that are just starting to play with it really become power users very, very quickly…

…The impact that we’re seeing not only in terms of how our merchants are using Sidekick, but how we’re using it internally has been super impactful…

…Some of them have actually discovered this incredible tooling, they’re building for their own business and then put in the App Store as well. But in terms of what Sidekick is doing, like Sidekick actually, we see as a real supplement to the App Store, not a replacement…

…The applications that are being built by Sidekick are really very specific nuanced feature sets for particular merchant businesses. And so for most of them, it really is just for the individual merchant. We see them — we see those — the opportunity for the app developers just to continue. That being said, though, what is happening that is super interesting is that now merchants who may have had to spend weeks or even months building a feature either internally or hiring an agency to do so, they’re able to do so much more work themselves using Sidekick, and that means they’re able to go much faster.

Shopify’s management thinks that emerging AI channels for shopping, such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Google and Meta’s AI services, will be a tailwind for e-commerce; Shopify is the only platform enabling discovery and selling inside ChatGPT, Copilot, and Google from a single system of record; AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores is up 8x year-on-year in 2026 Q1; orders from AI-powered searches are up 13x year-on-year in 2026 Q1; new buyer orders from AI-channels are happening at 2x the rate of other channels; Shopify’s Catalog feature provides the necessary information on 1 billion products for AI agents to surface the most relevant products in seconds; traffic from Catalog-powered AI searches converts 2x more traffic than general AI searches; usage of Shopify’s Sign In With Shop user verification tool is up 3x year-on-year in 2026 Q1; Sign In With Shop is important for agentic commerce because it enables agents to know who they are buying for; agents are not bypassing Shopify; Shopify is the storefront within ChatGPT’s recent move to having in-app browsers for checkouts; Shopify recently introduced an agentic plan that allowed brands to sell in AI channels through Shopify Catalog with no Shopify stores required; non-Shopify merchants are realising that Shopify Catalog is enabling their products to surface on agentic surfaces much better than web-scraping, and it is leading these merchants to join the Shopify ecosystem; OpenAI and Microsoft are already using Catalog

We believe that new and emerging AI channels, places like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Services and Meta will be a tailwind to driving e-commerce growth and penetration over time…

…We are the only platform that enables discovery and selling inside ChatGPT, Copilot and Google, all from one single system of record. And the early signals on AI channels are really compelling. And in the first quarter, AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores has grown 8x year-over-year, while orders from AI-powered searches have increased nearly 13x. And within this, new buyer orders are occurring at nearly twice the rate of other channels…

…Let’s talk about Shopify’s catalog because this really, really matters. To date, we’ve structured more than 1 billion products with clean attributes, real-time pricing and accurate inventory so AI agents can surface the most relevant products in seconds, and the results speak for themselves. Traffic from catalog-powered AI searches converts 2x more than traffic from general AI searches where the agent is working from scraped or often outdated information from across the web…

…Sign in with Shop is our user verification tool, which recognizes buyers across devices, stores and surfaces with no sign-in friction. And usage is growing steadily. We are up 3x year-over-year, and it is now enabled across nearly our entire merchant storefront base. In an agentic world, this really matters. Agents need to know who they are buying for and we are ready…

…Agents do not bypass Shopify, just the opposite. In fact, they write right into Shopify. I mean, I think you saw in sort of recent headlines that merchant storefronts really matter. You saw ChatGPT move to in-app browsers for their checkouts. So it’s literally the Shopify storefront within the chat. And again, when a buyer is shopping in ChatGPT, they’re browsing Shopify’s incredible catalog. So the momentum on agentic has been amazing…

…In terms of some of the stuff we’re doing with the agentic plan, for example, again, that rolled out early March. That means that any brand on any platform can now sell across AI channels via Shopify Catalog and no Shopify stores required…

…The big thing, though, with catalog is that I think a lot of non-Shopify merchants are seeing that catalog is actually doing a much better job of organizing and syndicating their products across every agentic surface versus sort of the old scraping thing that was happening prior to catalog. So it’s doing 2 things. One, it is unequivocally getting Shopify connected with a lot more non-Shopify merchants per se and beginning those conversations, which, again, may lead to them joining the agentic plan or ultimately may lead them to come into Shopify for their entire migration, which obviously is our plan and our hope. But even if they just want to be part of catalog and just be part of the agentic plan on its own, that already is a massive lift to them relative to everything else…

…OpenAI and Microsoft are already using the Catalog power discovery.

Shopify co-developed the open Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) with Google; UCP enables the full commerce journey from product discovery to post-purchase support; management built UCP because they believe that agentic commerce should be based on open standards; management has created the UCP Tech Council, which recently saw Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Stripe become members

You might have seen with the latest news on the Universal Commerce Protocol, or UCP, which we co-developed with Google. UCP is an open protocol that makes Agentic commerce work at scale. It enables the full commerce journey, product discovery, checkout, payment, post purchase across any platform with any payment processor.

We co-developed UCP because we believe the future of commerce runs in open standards, not closed systems. And then we created the UCP Tech Council, the technical body that steers the protocol’s direction to ensure it evolves to meet the needs of businesses, platforms, developers and consumers. We are now seeing the biggest and most innovative companies across essentially the entire industry coming together around UCP to help push Agentic commerce forward. And last month, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce and Stripe all joined the council, committing their expertise in Internet scale transaction processing to build one universal protocol for commerce.

Gross margin for Subscription Solutions was similar to a year ago, as economies of scale and efficiencies in support were partially offset by increased LLM costs from growing usage of Shopify’s AI products; management expects pressure on the gross margin from usage of Shopify’s AI products to continue

Gross profit for Subscription Solutions grew 21%, with gross margin coming in at 80%, in line with Q1 2025. Economies of scale and efficiencies in support were partially offset by increased LLM costs, driven by growing merchant usage of our AI products, most notably Sidekick. We expect this dynamic to continue.

AI is writing about 50% of Shopify’s code today; there are more app developers building for Shopify’s ecosystem than ever before, and Shopify is using AI to speed up the app approval process

AI right now writes well over 50% of our code today, and that number is going up significantly, not down…

…You’re seeing more app developers build for Shopify’s ecosystem than ever before. In fact, we’ve now put the app approval process on rails using incredible AI testing so that we can get more apps into the app store faster.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. I have a vested interest in Alphabet, Amazon, Coupang, Datadog, MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Shopify. Holdings are subject to change at any time.

What We’re Reading (Week Ending 10 May 2026)

The best articles we’ve read in recent times on a wide range of topics, including investing, business, and the world in general.

We’ve constantly been sharing a list of our recent reads in our weekly emails for The Good Investors.

Do subscribe for our weekly updates through the orange box in the blog (it’s on the side if you’re using a computer, and all the way at the bottom if you’re using mobile) – it’s free!

Here are the articles for the week ending 10 May 2026:

1. Corporate dark arts: when incentives tell you what might be coming $GME $EKSO $VAC $RPD – Andrew Walker

EKSO is a tiny little company; its market cap for most of last year was <$10m. But it’s a perfect case study in the dark arts and why paying attention to them can be profitable. In late November they gave all of their executives’ PSUs that vested only if the company underwent a change of control and the stock was “at least $7.50” per share within the next five years. The stock was trading in the mid-$4s at the time.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a single PSU grant that flashes “we are for sale” harder than that grant.

Sure enough, at the end of December EKSO announced a deal to merge with APLD’s cloud business spinoff. A few weeks later, EKSO did a private placement; it will shock you to learn the placement was priced at $8.22/share, above the mark that vested EKSO’s PSUs.

It wasn’t guaranteed that the market would respond positively to EKSO’s merger…. but I’d suggest EKSO’s board and management knew something was in the pipes when they made those grants, and that whatever was coming was likely to excite the market.

As I write this, EKSO is trading at $12/share.

2. OpenAI’s AI Chip Deal With Broadcom Hits $18 Billion Financing Snag – Anissa Gardizy

When OpenAI and chip designer Broadcom announced last fall that they would make custom artificial intelligence chips together, they positioned it as a done deal.

The companies said the deal would bring enough chips online before 2030 to consume 10 gigawatts of power, equivalent to five Hoover Dams’ worth of electricity, in a bid to lessen OpenAI’s costly dependence on Nvidia hardware.

What they didn’t say was that they hadn’t figured out how OpenAI would pay for the project.

Months later, the companies are negotiating an agreement for Broadcom to finance the first phase of chip production, which would consume 1.3 GW of data center capacity and would cost around $18 billion, according to an internal memo and two people involved in the talks. At that rate, the full 10 GW program, code-named Nexus, could cost $180 billion in chip production alone before factoring in data center construction and other costs…

…But the negotiations have run into a potential problem. Broadcom has said it would finance the first phase only if Microsoft agrees to buy roughly 40% of the chips, an OpenAI executive told colleagues in a memo last month. Microsoft would install the chips in its data centers and then rent them back to OpenAI.

A purchase commitment from Microsoft, one of the world’s most creditworthy companies with decades of data center experience, would give Broadcom confidence it would get its money back, said a person involved in the talks.

But Microsoft could choose not to buy OpenAI’s chips, which would change the financing terms for the project, the memo said…

…OpenAI has made a habit of announcing landmark partnerships without ironing out the details. A month before the Broadcom announcement, for instance, OpenAI said Nvidia would provide up to $100 billion in funding, allowing OpenAI to build its own data centers and use Nvidia’s chips to power them. The headline-making deal eventually fizzled, though Nvidia later made a $30 billion equity investment in OpenAI…

…And in January 2025, OpenAI announced Stargate, a joint venture with SoftBank and Oracle to spend $500 billion developing data centers. But the effort floundered as the three sides disagreed over details and lenders balked at backing multibillion-dollar projects tied directly to a company with an unproven business model…

…Despite the risks from Microsoft’s sway, talks between Broadcom and OpenAI have been progressing. Broadcom had long insisted that OpenAI put up one dollar of its own for every dollar Broadcom provided in financing, a typical arrangement to limit the chip vendor’s risks. That requirement had become a sticking point in the talks, according to the memo and an executive involved in the talks.

But Broadcom recently decided to relax that demand and invest more capital up-front than OpenAI, breaking from Broadcom’’s “long-held hard-line requirement,” the OpenAI memo said.

3. The Fertilizer, the Bond Market, and the End of the Country Banker – Dirt Cheap Banks

Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings rose 46% in 2025. That followed a 55% rise in 2024. That is the third consecutive annual increase. The Midwest jumped 70%. The Southeast jumped 69%. Montana, of all places, jumped 200%. Pennsylvania jumped 160%. Arkansas led the country in absolute filings — the most this century for the nation’s top rice-producing state. Total farm debt is projected to hit a record $624.7 billion in 2026. The American Farm Bureau Federation surveyed 5,700 farmers and 70% of them said they could not afford all the fertilizer they needed for the spring. The U.S. Department of Agriculture itself — not some doom-pusher on the internet, the actual government department whose job is to make this look fine — projects that 2026 corn will cost roughly $5.00 a bushel to grow and sell for $4.20. Soybeans, $12.27 to grow and $10.30 to sell…

…Nearly 40% more new farm operating loans were opened in Q4 2025 than in Q4 2024. The average operating loan in 2025 was 30% larger than 2024, with maturities running three months longer. Farmers are not borrowing more because they are growing. They are borrowing more because they are bleeding. And the only reason aggregate farm income looks anything like solvent is that the federal government will spend roughly $55 billion this year — $44.3 billion in direct payments, plus crop insurance subsidies, plus the $11 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program — propping up an industry that is, in market terms, no longer functional. Strip the subsidies out and 2026 net farm income falls off a cliff that nobody in Washington wants to look over. Agricultural lenders surveyed by the American Bankers Association expect only about 58% of farm borrowers to remain profitable in 2025, down sharply from 78% in 2023. NDSU’s Agricultural Risk Policy Center projects $44 billion in net cash income losses on the 2025-26 crops alone…

…The North Dakota State University agricultural trade modeling team ran the fertilizer scenarios and they are worth your attention because they are the most rigorous public modeling that exists.

Under their “Quick Reopening” case, urea peaks at $782/short ton in June 2026 and eases gradually. Under their central “Contested Transit” case, peak urea hits $784/st in July with prices staying above $700/st through November; fall 2026 prepay urea averages $733/st (56% above pre-crisis); winter fill at $643/st; spring 2027 top-off at $590/st. Add another fifty to eighty dollars per ton for freight and dealer margin to get the actual interior Corn Belt retail price. Under their “Extended Conflict” case, fall prepay climbs to $989/st; winter fill to $945/st; spring 2027 spot prices remain near $791/st. The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, released April 28, expects global fertilizer prices to rise more than 30% in 2026, with urea closing the year at $675 per ton — nearly 60% above 2025 levels.

For the farmer, this means 2026 is the easy year. Most spring 2026 nitrogen had already been contracted before the Strait closed in February. The real budgeting concern is 2027. American Farm Bureau Federation survey data shows that for every farmer more concerned about fertilizer for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027. Damage to liquefied natural gas production and sulfur output in the Persian Gulf could take years to repair, even if shipping normalizes tomorrow. The infrastructure does not just turn back on.

If the central NDSU scenario plays out, the 2027 crop year sees farmers face fertilizer costs roughly 50% above pre-war levels at exactly the moment their working capital — the cushion that lets them absorb a bad year — has been exhausted by 2025 and 2026. This would be the fourth consecutive year of negative crop margins. Operating loans would grow even larger, even longer. Chapter 12 filings would push past 600 a year. Agricultural bank delinquency rates, currently 1.09% as of July 2025, would climb to 2.5% to 3.5%. Still well below 1985’s peak of 6.7% at agricultural banks, but moving in the wrong direction at speed.

If the extended conflict case plays out — Strait remains contested through 2027, fertilizer at near-1980-level real prices, fifth consecutive year of negative margins — the trajectory accelerates. 2028 starts to look uncomfortably similar to 1984. The structural buffers begin to fail in sequence, not in parallel…

…The American Enterprise Institute has been making the case openly: most farm households receive over half their income from non-farm sources; the agricultural sector’s debt-to-asset ratio is 13.75%; the system can absorb shocks without the level of subsidization currently in place. That argument is not winning yet. But it is being made by serious people in Washington, and it is being made at a moment when every other federal spending priority is under similar pressure. If a debt-ceiling fight or a continuing-resolution fight produces a sequester or a freeze, agricultural subsidies are not exempt. They are politically vulnerable in a way they have not been in a generation.

If subsidies are cut even modestly — say, a 30% reduction from the projected $55 billion to roughly $38 billion — the market-based losses that currently get masked by federal payments become visible all at once. Farm income drops by an amount equivalent to roughly 11% of total receipts. The farms that are barely solvent stop being solvent. The farms that depend most heavily on subsidies — the commercial row-crop operations in the Midwest and Plains, the largest borrowers, the ones holding the biggest loans at the most concentrated agricultural banks — fail in clusters.

If subsidies are cut substantially — back toward the 2024 level of roughly $10 billion — the math becomes cataclysmic. Net farm income outside government payments would fall by roughly $40 billion. The structural protection that has kept the current stress from becoming a 1980s-style crisis disappears. Farmland values, which have so far held in part because farmers can still service their debts, begin to crack. The 220 community banks that the FDIC identifies as having agricultural loan concentrations above 300% of capital become acutely vulnerable.

This scenario is the dark mirror of 1985. In 1985, there were no subsidies of this scale to remove. The crisis happened anyway. In 2027 or 2028, removing the subsidies would be the trigger that closes a system that is currently holding together by their grace alone…

…The 1980s farm crisis killed 205 agricultural banks between 1984 and 1987 — 37.4% of the 548 total bank failures during that window. There were 14,483 FDIC-insured commercial banks in 1984; by 2023 that number had fallen to 4,027 — a 72.19% decline. At the end of 2024 there were approximately 4,050 community banks left in the United States. Roughly 220 of them carry agricultural loan concentrations above 300% of capital, clustered in eight states: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Most have under $200 million in assets. Most are not publicly traded.

4. Warren Buffett Case Study – East Sullivan Mines 1962 – Dirt Cheap Stocks

At yearend 1962, the Buffett partnership was managing $9.8 million.

East Sullivan was a $106,000 position.

East Sullivan was a mining business that produced copper, gold, silver and zinc.

It was headquartered in Quebec and formed in 1944.

East Sullivan had profitable operations. In 1962, it produced millions of pounds of zinc and copper along with 4,600 ounces of gold and 168,000 ounces of silver.

In 1962 the business had 33% EBIT margins. 1961 had 20% EBIT margins.

It was a nice little business. Of course, margins would swing wildly in this kind of operation, but still, it was doing well when Buffett owned it.

The business had cash and investments in excess of its market cap. It was profitable and paying a sizable dividend.

East Sullivan’s investments were largely made up of ownership in affiliated companies.

Members of the Beauchamin family made up the majority of the management team and the board.

Then there were a bunch of related businesses that were also interconnected and controlled by the Beauchamin family…

…East Sullivan was doing $1.2mm of EBIT from its own operations.

Let’s assume that the $9.6mm of marketable securities and affiliated businesses could produce a 7% return. That’s probably conservative.

7% on $9.6mm is an additional $672k of look-through ebit.

The market cap was $8.9mm. EV would’ve been $7.8mm if only giving credit for East Sullivan’s cash account.

The look through EBIT is $1.9mm (1.2mm + 672k).

That’s ~4x EV/EBIT…

…We don’t know how long Buffett held. But the investment was likely a good one for him.

Shares touched $3.00 in 1963. By 1964 they were $5.70. And they peaked at $9.40 in 1965.

If Buffett had held to the top in 1965 he would’ve earned a 73% IRR.

If he held through the end of his partnership in 1969, he would’ve earned a 34% IRR.

5. Iran war is crushing Asia’s farmers, threatening global food supply – Rebecca Tan and Wilawan Watcharasakwej

Saithong Jamjai has just finished harvesting the rice on the 19 hectares of farmland she owns in central Thailand and now is the time to sow again. But she won’t, she said, because of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

She has gone over the math for weeks. Because of surging prices, driven by the war, of fuel, fertilizer, plastics and other necessities, planting and harvesting will cost her at least $33,000, she said. The grain that she’ll produce, she estimates, will sell in August for only $22,000.

“A confirmed loss,” Saithong, 53, concluded. She’d rather let her land bake under the yellowing husks from last season…

…Addressing world leaders in Rome on Thursday, Dongyu Qu, the director general of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, said the war had created not only a geopolitical crisis but “a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.”

Iran’s destruction of gas infrastructure in the Gulf and the dueling U.S.-Iran efforts to choke the Strait of Hormuz have prevented crucial supplies of fuel and its derivatives like urea — a potent source of nitrogen that enhances harvests — from leaving the Middle East. Because fuel infrastructure takes years to build, there is no ready replacement for these supplies.

In effect, 30 percent of the world’s urea has been “wiped out,” said Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at the market intelligence firm CRU Group. China, a major fertilizer producer, has restricted exports to ensure its farmers have enough. Russia, another big manufacturer, is seeing demand soar, potentially boosting its economy and aiding its war in Ukraine. On what is known as the spot market, urea prices are up 40 percent since February…

…The longer the production plants in the Middle East stay closed, the longer they will take to restart. “This problem builds in a nonlinear fashion,” Goyal said.

So do its repercussions.

In Thailand, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Australia, which are the first since the war to enter key sowing periods, farmers are choosing to skip or reduce planting, or cut fertilizer use, which will lower yield.

As the war stretches deeper into the crop calendar, farmers from more countries will be forced to make similar choices, said Maximo Torero, chief economist for the FAO. “Right now, the impacts are more severe in Asia,” Torero said. “But clearly, this is moving east to west and south to north.”

In June, India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, will ramp up orders for urea. If, by then, vessels carrying urea are not sailing, there will be “significant yield loss” across many countries, Torero said…

…Thailand’s Commerce Ministry, for example, said in April the country still has 343,000 tons of urea fertilizer, sufficient to support the upcoming planting season. Driving through the vast flatlands surrounding Thailand’s Chao Phraya River basin, however, reveals a different picture.

Across Ayutthaya and Suphan Buri provinces, fertilizer shops large and small were completely out of urea — and said they had been for weeks. Distributors are offering only Russian compounds that farmers are wary to use, shop owners said. Seansdee Teerasattayaporn, 62, who runs a fertilizer wholesale business, sent a truck to a marketplace frequented by large dealers to try to procure urea but after waiting four days, he said, the truck returned empty.

Heading into planting season, many farmers said they are facing the worst conditions in their lifetimes. Not during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war were shortages or costs this dire, they said. Nor during the pandemic…

…In an interview, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow asserted that Thailand still has sufficient farming supplies and Thai leaders are jetting across the world to procure more. But he acknowledged the country is competing against bigger nations with deeper pockets, amid extraordinary logistical challenges. “We have not faced such a crisis before,” he said.

On Tuesday, two weeks after a trip to Moscow, Thailand’s agricultural minister said an attempt to secure urea from Russia is likely to fall through. Because of shipping disruptions, it would take at least two months for Russian urea to arrive in Thailand — far too late for the current planting season.

Agricultural experts say the Iran war has underlined the need for farmers to become more self-reliant, for example, weaning themselves of diesel by switching to solar power or swapping out chemical fertilizer for organic alternatives that can be produced locally. But to make these switches, farmers need government subsidies and time, both of which are in short supply, said Esther Penunia, secretary general of the Asian Farmers Association…

…Thai farmers have been doubly hurt because the Middle East is also one of their biggest export markets. The region accounted for 17 percent of Thailand’s rice exports in 2025, according to customs data. Iraq was the single largest destination for Thai rice.

The day U.S. and Israeli forces bombed Iran, ship operators at a Bangkok port told sellers to lift containers of rice bound for Gulf countries off ships and back into warehouses, said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Since then, there have been no shipments of rice to the Gulf. Malaysia and the Philippines have absorbed some of Thailand’s excess supply but not all of it, leaving a glut that has kept rice prices low, Chookiat said.

Even before the war, many Thai farmers were in financially precarious situations, relying on loans to survive from one season to the next. Now, the squeeze of higher planting costs and lower projected rice sales could drive millions of farmers into spiraling debt that will take years to clear, said Pramote Charoensilp, 64, president of the Thai Farmers and Agriculturists Association.

Disclaimer: The Good Investors is the personal investing blog of two simple guys who are passionate about educating Singaporeans about stock market investing. By using this Site, you specifically agree that none of the information provided constitutes financial, investment, or other professional advice. It is only intended to provide education. Speak with a professional before making important decisions about your money, your professional life, or even your personal life. We currently have a vested interest in Microsoft. Holdings are subject to change at any time.